Bringing Hope, Building Futures: Tackling child poverty delivery plan 2026-2031 – annex 9: Fairer Scotland Duty Impact Assessment (FSDIA)

Summary of evidence

The Child Poverty (Scotland) Act 2017 sets in statute four income-based child poverty targets to be met in the financial year beginning 1 April 2030. The targets are largely focused on household income, while also taking into account wider costs of living through the material deprivation measure. The 2030 targets are that, of children living in households in Scotland:

• Fewer than 10% of children live in relative poverty. This means fewer than one in ten children living in households with equivalised net incomes below 60% of the median (middle) equivalised net UK household income.
• Fewer than 5% of children live in families in absolute poverty. This means fewer than one in twenty children living in households with equivalised net incomes below 60% of the median equivalised net UK household income in 2010/11 adjusted for inflation.
• Fewer than 5% of children live in families living in combined low income and material deprivation. This means fewer than one in twenty children living in households with equivalised net incomes below 70% of the median equivalised net UK household income and going without certain essential goods and services.
• Fewer than 5% of children live in families in persistent poverty. This means fewer than one in twenty children living in households in relative poverty for three years out of the last four.

The most recent Scottish Government data shows that child poverty rates in Scotland have remained broadly stable over the last decade. It is estimated that 23% of children (240,000 children each year) were living in relative poverty after housing costs in 2021-24. Before housing costs, it is estimated that 22% of children (220,000 children each year) were in relative poverty.

Priority families

Poverty affects a wide range of families with a variety of protected characteristics. However, around 90% of all children in poverty in Scotland live within the six priority family types identified in our first delivery plan: lone parent families, minority ethnic families, families with a disabled member, families with a mother aged under 25, families with a child under one and larger families (3+ children).^[1]

Evidence continues to suggest that the priority groups identified experience poverty at a higher rate than the rest of the population. Therefore, actions in the 2026-31 delivery plan will continue to focus on addressing the barriers faced by these families. We will continue to monitor and evaluate the impacts of our policy package over the life of the plan to ensure it has the impact intended.

It is important to note there is significant intersectionality within these groups and, whilst we will focus our efforts on those most at risk of experiencing child poverty, we will use the priority family types as lenses through which we address the key barriers experienced by different groups. For example, among children in relative poverty:

• 49% of children in lone parent families also have a disabled family member
• 50% of children in a family with a younger mother are also in a lone parent household
• 49% of children in families with three or more children are also in a family in which someone is disabled^[2]

Families with experience of multiple disadvantage are often among those deepest in poverty and experience most challenges to getting out of poverty. Most of these families are also likely to fall into at least one of our priority groups. Therefore, it is important that policies are mindful of the intersectionality, specific support needs and multiple barriers people can face.