Understanding the changing nature and context of poverty in Scottish rural and island communities since 2010

1. Introduction

This report aims to enhance understanding of the changing nature and context of poverty in rural and island communities in Scotland. Tackling poverty and inequality are important policy priorities for the Scottish Government, underpinned by a national mission to eradicate child poverty. In addition, the Government is committed to enhancing the lives of those in mainland rural Scotland via the Rural Delivery Plan by addressing key issues that local communities face. This will be complemented by a second National Islands Plan to take account of the unique challenges experienced by island communities.

We know that the nature, extent, depth and experience of poverty can vary substantially depending on a range of factors, including where one lives. Furthermore, the patterns of poverty in Scotland can change over time. An increasing trend in rural poverty was noted from 13% 2012-2015^[1] to 18% 2018-2021 with no such trend identified among those living in urban areas^[2]. This changing rural poverty trend occurred during a period of economic volatility and instability, including the lead-up to and aftermath of Brexit^[3], and latterly the impacts of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic^[4], as well as the war in Ukraine, among other factors. These events contributed to a cost of living crisis that disproportionately affected low income households^[5]. Although poverty is concentrated in cities, its impacts can be intensified by higher costs of living for those in rural areas^[6].

Aims

The overarching aim of the report is to set out poverty trends and patterns from 2010 onwards with a focus on rural and island areas in Scotland, as well as to describe the nature of poverty experienced in these communities. In addition, the report aims to explore some of the potential drivers of observed changes. Finally, implications for policy, practice and research are highlighted, while also making suggestions on how to enhance the data infrastructure to enable rural and island poverty analysis. The report is structured around the following research questions:

1) What are the trends and patterns of poverty in rural and island communities in Scotland since 2010?

2) What are the potential drivers of these poverty trends and patterns across different rural and island communities?

3) What are the implications for policy, practice and research?

Methods and approach

The report primarily focuses on analytical findings from five different datasets. The selection of these datasets was informed by an exercise mapping relevant, accessible datasets. Only those that provided poverty-related data at a granular Scottish local level, and where applicable at a national level for comparative purposes, were included.

The five datasets are:

Children in Low Income Families^[7]

Family Resources Survey^[8]

Pupil Census (Scotland)^[9]

Scottish Household Survey^[10]

Scottish House Condition Survey^[11]

A brief description of the datasets can be found in Appendix 1. The report mostly covers a period from 2010 to 2023 although the data availability and quality in each dataset dictated the exact period. As such, this excluded the period leading up to or shortly after the 2007-2008 ‘financial crisis’ that came with its own unique challenges. This period also allowed for the exploration of the observed increase in rural poverty between 2012-15 and 2018-21.

To reflect the diverse nature and experience of poverty that households may experience, a variety of income-based poverty outcomes and poverty proxies were explored^[12]. A full list of outcomes and their definitions can be found in Appendix 1 and 2. Meetings to discuss emerging findings were held in 2025 with relevant stakeholders^[13] and expert by experience panel members^[14]. Contributions from the stakeholders and panel members have been embedded in chapters where relevant. Findings have been supplemented with evidence from previous Scottish Government publications and reports from a range of research institutions. Only a selection of the findings and resulting graphs and figures are included in the main report. Further analysis is included within the supplementary material.

Given the report’s focus on people who live in rural and island communities in Scotland, where possible, the Scottish Government Urban Rural Classification (SGURC) was used (Figure 1). This is a consistent way of defining urban and rural areas across Scotland. The classification is based upon two main criteria: (i): population, as defined by the National Records of Scotland, and (ii) accessibility, based on drive time analysis to differentiate between accessible and remote areas in Scotland^[15], resulting in 2 to 8-fold urban/rural classifications. Using the 6-fold SGURC, most Scottish islands are defined as ‘remote rural’ in their entirety, with a smaller number of larger islands containing settlements classified as ‘remote small towns’. Where the SGURC could not be applied, the alternative Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services (RESAS) classification was used that allocates local authorities according to their level of rurality resulting in four different groups^[16]. Within this classification, some Scottish islands fall within the ‘islands and remote’ category (e.g. those within Argyll and Bute, Shetland Islands, Orkney Islands, and Comhairle nan Eilean Siar), while others are part of local authorities classified as ‘mainly rural’ (e.g. Highland Council and North Ayrshire Council). To enable a closer examination of how the experience of poverty may differ across the Scottish islands we explored, where possible, how poverty indicators differed between the nine Scottish island regions^[17]. See Appendix 3 for an overview of the geographical classifications.