A Trading Nation - Updating Scotland's Country and Sector Prioritisation

6. Future priorities and analytical updates

The Scottish Government routinely monitors the changing international environment through its delivery partner organisations. As a result, the analysis contained within this update is regularly consulted and used to inform decisions taken in real time with Scottish exporters. As international support for business requires planning and good governance, the rate at which these markets will change in future will be determined by further consultation, over and above any updates to the analytical model. Future analytical updates will be considered in the context of a changing trade environment and whether more timely indicators and variables are a better measure to routinely update, as opposed to the analytical model as a whole.

Policy officials and analysists will explore whether future ATN quantitative analysis could include variables that provide rankings for non-tariff barriers. It is hoped this analysis would add greater clarity on ease of access to selected international markets.

Figure 3: Scotland’s Country-Sector Priority Matrix (Updated 2025)

Figure 3 presents a country by sector matrix, which provides a detailed overview of which sectors in which countries offer the most promising opportunities for increasing Scottish exports. The structure of the matrix includes rows which represent countries (both priority and special interest markets); and columns which represent priority sectors. The sectors are Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing, Food and Drink, Transport Equipment, Technology, Digital and Media, Energy, Chemical Sciences, and Financial and Business Services.

Each cell in the matrix includes letter codes to denote the nature of the opportunity. The letters stand for the following:

V – The country is in the top 10 export value gaps for that sector. This means Scotland is underperforming compared to peers and has room to grow.

M – The country is among the top 10 importers of products from that sector globally. This indicates a large market size.

G – The country is in the top 10 for import growth in that sector. This signals a rapidly expanding market.

X – The country is already one of Scotland’s top 10 export destinations for that sector.

Where there are no letters in a cell, this denotes that the country does not fall within the top ten for that particularly opportunity, but is still a priority or special interest market.

The following takes each country in turn (alphabetically) for both priority sectors and special interest markets, and states the letter code present in each cell within the matrix.

Australia

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing - G

Food and Drink – V, M

Transport Equipment – M, G

Technology, Digital and Media - M

Energy - X

Chemical Sciences - NONE

Financial and Business Services – G, X

Belgium

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing – V, M, G, X

Food and Drink - NONE

Transport Equipment - M

Technology, Digital and Media - NONE

Energy – V, M, G

Chemical Sciences – V, X

Financial and Business Services – V, M

Canda

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing - G

Food and Drink – V, M, G, X

Transport Equipment – V, M, G, X

Technology, Digital and Media - NONE

Energy - NONE

Chemical Sciences - V

Financial and Business Services – V, X

China

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing – V, M, X

Food and Drink – V, M, G

Transport Equipment – V, M

Technology, Digital and Media - G

Energy - NONE

Chemical Sciences – M, G

Financial and Business Services – M, G, X

Denmark

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing - X

Food and Drink - X

Transport Equipment - NONE

Technology, Digital and Media - NONE

Energy - X

Chemical Sciences - X

Financial and Business Services - NONE

France

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing - X

Food and Drink – V, G, X

Transport Equipment – V, X

Technology, Digital and Media – V, M, X

Energy - G

Chemical Sciences – V, G, X

Financial and Business Services – M, X

Germany

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing – V, M, G, X

Food and Drink - V, M, G, X

Transport Equipment - V, M

Technology, Digital and Media - V, M, G, X

Energy - M

Chemical Sciences – M, X

Financial and Business Services - V, M, G

India

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing – V, G

Food and Drink - V

Transport Equipment – V, M, G

Technology, Digital and Media - G

Energy - G

Chemical Sciences – V, G

Financial and Business Services – V, G

Ireland

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing - V

Food and Drink – V, M, X

Transport Equipment - V

Technology, Digital and Media – V, X

Energy - V

Chemical Sciences – V, X

Financial and Business Services – G, X

Italy

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing – M, G, X

Food and Drink - M, G, X

Transport Equipment - M

Technology, Digital and Media – V, M, X

Energy - M

Chemical Sciences – V, M, G

Financial and Business Services – V, M, G

Japan

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing - V

Food and Drink – V, X

Transport Equipment - V

Technology, Digital and Media - NONE

Energy - NONE

Chemical Sciences - NONE

Financial and Business Services - X

Netherlands

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing – V, M, X

Food and Drink – M, G, X

Transport Equipment – V, X

Technology, Digital and Media – M, X

Energy – V, M, G, X

Chemical Sciences – M, G, X

Financial and Business Services – V, M, G, X

Norway

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing – V, M, X

Food and Drink – M, X

Transport Equipment - NONE

Technology, Digital and Media – M, G, X

Energy - X

Chemical Sciences – M, G

Financial and Business Services – M, G, X

Poland

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing - NONE

Food and Drink - NONE

Transport Equipment - V

Technology, Digital and Media – V, M

Energy - NONE

Chemical Sciences - NONE

Financial and Business Services - V

Saudi Arabia

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing - V

Food and Drink - V

Transport Equipment - NONE

Technology, Digital and Media - V

Energy - NONE

Chemical Sciences - NONE

Financial and Business Services - NONE

Spain

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing – M, X

Food and Drink – V, M, G

Transport Equipment - M

Technology, Digital and Media - NONE

Energy - X

Chemical Sciences – G, X

Financial and Business Services – G, X

Sweden

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing – V, M

Food and Drink - M

Transport Equipment - M

Technology, Digital and Media – V, M, X

Energy – V, M

Chemical Sciences – M, X

Financial and Business Services – V, M, G

Switzerland

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing – G, X

Food and Drink - NONE

Transport Equipment - X

Technology, Digital and Media - NONE

Energy - NONE

Chemical Sciences - X

Financial and Business Services – V, X

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing - NONE

Food and Drink - NONE

Transport Equipment - G

Technology, Digital and Media - NONE

Energy - NONE

Chemical Sciences - NONE

Financial and Business Services - NONE

United States

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing – V, M, G, X

Food and Drink - V, M, G, X

Transport Equipment - M, G, X

Technology, Digital and Media - V, M, G, X

Energy - V, M, G, X

Chemical Sciences - M, G, X

Financial and Business Services - V, M, G, X

Brazil

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing - G

Food and Drink - V

Transport Equipment – V, X

Technology, Digital and Media - NONE

Energy - X

Chemical Sciences - V

Financial and Business Services - M

Indonesia

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing - NONE

Food and Drink - NONE

Transport Equipment - NONE

Technology, Digital and Media - NONE

Energy - NONE

Chemical Sciences - G

Financial and Business Services - NONE

Mexico

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing – V, M, G

Food and Drink - G

Transport Equipment - G

Technology, Digital and Media – V, M, G

Energy - M

Chemical Sciences - M

Financial and Business Services – V, M

Singapore

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing – M, G

Food and Drink - NONE

Transport Equipment - NONE

Technology, Digital and Media – V, M, G, X

Energy – M, G

Chemical Sciences - M

Financial and Business Services – M, G

South Korea

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing - NONE

Food and Drink - NONE

Transport Equipment - NONE

Technology, Digital and Media - NONE

Energy - NONE

Chemical Sciences - NONE

Financial and Business Services - NONE

Ukraine

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing - NONE

Food and Drink - NONE

Transport Equipment - NONE

Technology, Digital and Media - NONE

Energy - NONE

Chemical Sciences - NONE

Financial and Business Services - NONE

Figure 4: Current UK Trading Relationship

Figure 4 provides a summary of the trade relationship status between the UK and selected international partner countries, following the UK's departure from the European Union. It categorizes each country based on the type of trade arrangement currently in place.

The columns within the figure include

1. UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) – Indicates if the country is part of the EU and thus covered under the TCA.
2. World Trade Organisation (WTO) Terms – Indicates if trade with the country is conducted under basic WTO rules (i.e., no specific trade agreement).
3. Separate Trade Agreement – Indicates if the UK has negotiated a distinct bilateral or multilateral trade agreement with the country.
4. Name of Separate Agreement (Notes) – Provides the name and details of the specific trade agreement(s) in place.

The following takes each column in turn, providing a list of the countries to which the trade relationship applies, and the name of the agreement where applicable.

1. UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) – The following priority markets currently trade with the UK under the TCA: Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden
2. World Trade Organisation (WTO) Terms - The following priority markets currently trade with the UK under WTO terms: China, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. The following special interest markets currently trade with Scotland under WTO terms: Brazil and Indonesia.
3. Separate Trade Agreement – The following priority markets currently have a separate trading agreement / arrangement with the UK: Australia, Canada, India, Japan, Norway, Switzerland and the United States. The following special interest markets currently have a separate trading agreement or arrangement with the UK: Mexico, Singapore, South Korea and Ukraine.
4. Name of Separate Agreement (Notes) – The names of the separate agreements governing trade between the UK and the priority and special interest markets are as follows: UK-Australia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) & Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP); UK-Canada Trade Continuity Agreement & CPTPP; UK-India FTA; UK-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) & CPTPP; UK-Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein FTA; UK-Switzerland FTA; UK-US Economic Prosperity Deal & State level Memorandums of Understanding (MoU) for some states; UK-Mexico Continuity Agreement & CPTPP; UK-Singapore Continuity Deal, Digital Economy Agreement & CPTPP; UK–South Korea Trade Continuity Agreement; and UK-Ukraine Political, Free Trade and Strategic Partnership & UK-Ukraine Digital Trade Agreement.