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Publication - Research and analysis

A Trading Nation - Updating Scotland's Country and Sector Prioritisation

Published
11 September 2025
From
Director of International Trade and Investment, +1 more … Chief Economist
Directorate
International Trade and Investment Directorate, +1 more … Chief Economist Directorate
Topic
Economy, International
ISBN
9781806430994

This paper sets out the analytical update to the country and sector priorities underpinning the Scottish Government's export strategy, A Trading Nation. It also provides an update to the methodology used in this analysis.

View supporting documents Supporting documents

4. Qualitative Analysis – Stakeholder Consultations and Feedback

While quantitative analysis provides the foundation for country prioritisation within A Trading Nation, there are limitations to relying on quantitative techniques alone when updating the Country-Sector Matrix. These include:

  • A lag in services data (which was evident during the initial prioritisation exercise in 2019). This does not capture the post-covid timeline and as a result, averages including 2020 and 2021 are more unreliable.
  • The model relies heavily on historical export data and does not forecast or project trade flows into the future. Forward looking variables such as import growth and population growth are used.
  • Global classification codes are dated and as a result, new and emerging sectors may be spread across existing standard industrial classification codes, making sub-sector analysis inaccurate.
  • The economic conditions during the update period were unprecedented and caused significant economic headwinds through disrupted trade flows. This included Covid-19, the war in Ukraine and subsequent high inflationary pressures.

As a result of these, a comprehensive qualitative exercise was completed to complement and constructively challenge the ATN prioritisation methodology. This approach encompassed quality assurance of the model’s outputs through consideration of several variables:

  1. Economic partner countries
  1. Business culture
  1. Geopolitics
  1. Political and legal environment
  1. Institutional frameworks
  1. Infrastructure and supply chains
  1. Social and environmental factors
  1. Market access and trade Barriers

This resulted in a number of sources providing qualitative assessment of Scotland’s approach to export support such as stakeholder[6] feedback, Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) Diplomatic Telegram (DipTel) reporting, reporting for economic consultancies and respected organisations such as OECD, the World Bank, and news sources and journals such as the Economist. This analysis was used to inform the final priority list above.

Contact

Email: exportplan@gov.scot

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