Teacher Workforce Planning – 2025 exercise: statistical modelling of initial teacher education intake requirements

2. Modelling approach

The teacher workforce planning model estimates the required level of ITE intake needed to achieve the target future workforce size. This calculation is based on current data about the teaching workforce and assumptions regarding the inflows to and outflows from the pool of employed teachers.

In this instance, the model was used to determine the level of ITE intake (which forms part of the total inflows) required to sustain overall teacher numbers at the level expected in 2025 following agreement with local government. For the purposes of modelling the overall number of teachers was set at 53,500 FTE for 2026 onwards. The approach taken to the sector split was to maintain the proportional split between primary and secondary school teaching courses that was recorded for 2024.

Estimates of future pupil rolls, based on official population projections, are used in combination with the estimated size of the future teaching workforce to estimate future pupil teacher ratios (PTRs).

The modelling described here uses the most recent data available, i.e. the 2024 school pupil and staff censuses, the 2022-based subnational population projections (used to create pupil projections) and 2025 enrolments to ITE. In some cases, this data has been used to create an assumption about future trends, this is described further below.