Teacher Workforce Planning – 2025 exercise: statistical modelling of initial teacher education intake requirements

1. Objective

The objective of this iteration of modelling was to calculate the intake of Initial Teacher Education (ITE) students for Academic Year 2026/27 that is required to sustain overall teacher numbers at the level expected in 2025 following agreement with local government.

There are two main routes into teaching: the four-year Bachelor of Education (BEd) (undergraduate) and one-year Post-Graduate Diploma in Education (PGDE) (postgraduate). The modelling described here only considers varying the levels of PGDE ITE intake and assumes constant BEd intake at recent levels.

Following ITE, teachers may embark on probationer employment as a provisionally registered teacher. On completion of probation, teachers are eligible to apply for full registration. The Official Statistics on teacher numbers include both provisionally and fully registered teachers in the overall count of teacher Full Time Equivalents (FTE).

Therefore, the earliest point at which the 2026/27 PGDE ITE intake can enter employment as teachers and be captured in the teacher number statistics is 2027 (as probationers).