Supporting Scotland's Transition - Land Use and Agriculture: Technical Supporting Document
This document provides additional context to the consultation on a draft Land use and Agriculture Just Transition Plan. The Plan sets out how we are working towards achieving Scotland’s Net Zero ambitions in a fair and just way for people and communities working in or with our land-based industries.
Closed
This consultation closed 5 October 2025.
1.2 Living in rural Scotland
Land use and agriculture contribute significantly to rural life and its economy, and a Just Transition must consider the benefits and impacts on the wider rural, island and coastal communities. This section seeks to provide a brief socio-economic overview of rural Scotland[17], again with an emphasis on the agriculture and forestry sectors.
As the data presented below demonstrates, rural and island communities across Scotland are incredibly diverse and face distinct challenges, from persistent issues such as accessing public services, availability and affordability of housing, (heightened by house price rises and second home ownership), higher reliance on cars, rising living costs, rising poverty and fuel poverty, and transport costs, to newer challenges such as a changing climate and the transition to net zero. In addition to this, EU exit, the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and cost of living crisis have had significant impacts across rural and island Scotland, with communities and businesses facing specific challenges, such as those related to rising fuel prices and retention of staff.[18]
Recent analysis indicates that Scotland has some of the most sparsely populated regions in Europe, and these areas face particular demographic challenges including low birth rates.[19]
In 2022, the population of Scotland was estimated to be 5.4 million.[20] The population of rural Scotland is estimated at over 930,000[21], including our island and coastal communities. This continues to grow at a faster rate than the rest of Scotland, driven by an increase in accessible rural areas, mainly due to inward migration. In 2021, 12% of Scottish population was estimated to live in accessible rural areas and 5% in remote rural areas. A further 9% were estimated to live in accessible small towns and 3% in remote small towns. The majority (72%) live in urban areas.[22] At the time of the 2011 Census, the 93 inhabited islands in Scotland had a total population of 103,700, which was 2 per cent of the population of Scotland.[23]
However, the population of rural areas is projected to decline over the next 20 years. In island and remote rural areas, the population is already in steady decline and is projected to drop by 12% (19 000 people) between 2018 and 2043. In contrast, the population of ‘Larger cities’ and ‘Urban with substantial rural areas’ is projected to increase by 7% and 3% respectively.[24]
Even within the classification areas for Scotland, population change is inconsistent. For example, in the islands over the period 2002 to 2022, Arran, Bute and the Cumbraes have experienced a population decline of 13.2% whereas Orkney has seen an increase of 16.7%.[25]
Scotland’s population as a whole is ageing. Over a quarter (27%) of the population of remote rural areas is now aged 65 and over, compared to 16% in large urban areas. Rural areas have a lower percentage of people aged 16-44 years old, with 31% for accessible rural areas compared to 43% in large urban areas.[26] Population projections by National Records of Scotland show the highest percentage reduction in children and working age population, and the highest increase in pensionable age population, will be in islands and remote rural areas.[27] This will have an impact on rural economies and service provision in remote rural areas.
1.3 Jobs, skills and economy
Contact
Email: LAJTP@gov.scot