Scottish Prison Population Projections: July 2026

This is the eleventh report published since June 2023 on the Scottish Government’s modelling of potential demand for prison accommodation in Scotland. It presents prison population projections for the nine-month period from July 2026 to March 2027[1]. These have been produced using microsimulation scenario modelling, which simulates arrivals to, movements within, and departures from the prison population to estimate future prison population levels.

The projections are intended to support high-level decision-making, planning and policy development. As they do not account for the full complexity of the prison population, they are not intended for use in the day-to-day management of those in prison.

The modelling accounts for how criminal justice system activity, particularly in the courts, may affect movements into, within and out of the prison population. Scenario modelling is used to reflect uncertainty in future court activity, with three scenarios based on different assumptions about court case conclusion rates: ‘low’, ‘central’, and ‘high’. In this context, the ‘low’ scenario refers to lower court case conclusions, which is generally associated with a higher projected prison population.

Since the previous publication[2], the total prison population has remained within the projected range and has most closely tracked the ‘low’ court case conclusions scenario.

Developments since the last publication

The previous edition included projections starting from 1 February 2026. Since then, there have been several policy and modelling developments.

Emergency Early Release (EER) of certain short-term prisoners concluded in April 2026. Across the seven tranches between November 2025 and April 2026, a total of 614 individuals were released[3]. 

On 12 May 2026, changes came into force altering the automatic release point for certain eligible short-term determinate sentenced prisoners from 40% to 30% of their sentence served in custody (STP30)[4]. The change does not apply to those serving sentences for domestic abuse or sexual offences. Individuals immediately affected were released in tranches during May and June 2026. The projections in this publication include the estimated effect of this legislative change by adjusting relevant release dates. 

Further development and validation work has been carried out to support extending the projection horizon beyond the six-month period used in previous publications. As a result, this publication presents nine-month projections for the first time. Further information on the updated modelling approach is provided in the technical annex.

Latest projections

On 1 July 2026, the overall prison population in Scotland was 8,466, comprising 2,217 on remand and 6,249 sentenced prisoners[5].

EER may have had a small residual effect on the population at the start of the projection period. This is difficult to quantify given the subsequent implementation of STP30, but any remaining effect is expected to be minimal over the projection period. 

The latest prison population projections, shown in Figure 1, indicate that if current trends continue and no further interventions are introduced, then:

• The overall prison population is likely[6] to increase between July 2026 and March 2027.
• Across the three projection scenarios, the average daily prison population in March 2027 is projected to be between 8,100 and 9,150[7].
• The average daily remand population is projected to be between 1,400 and 3,100 in March 2027, compared with 2,217 on 1 July 2026. This implies there is a realistic possibility that the average daily remand population could either increase or decrease over the projection horizon.
• The sentenced population is likely to increase between July 2026 and March 2027, reaching an average daily total of between 6,000 and 6,750 in March 2027, compared with 6,249 on 1 July 2026.

Figure 1. Prison population projections for July 2026 to March 2027. The projection range includes the overlapping 50%, 75% and 95% prediction intervals for all scenario variants given in Table 1. The actual population is shown as a series of black points.