Scottish Prison Population Projections: July 2026
This report presents short-term Scottish prison population projections for the nine month period from July 2026 to March 2027.
As of 1 July 2026, the prison population was 8,466. The modelling indicates a projected range for the average daily total prison population of between 8,100 and 9,150 in March 2027.
It is likely that the overall prison population will increase over the projection horizon.
The remand population is sensitive to a range of factors. This is reflected in the projected range for the average daily remand population in March 2027 of 1,400 to 3,100, compared with 2,217 on 1 July 2026. This implies that there is a realistic possibility that the remand population could either increase or decrease over the projection period.
It is likely that the sentenced population will increase between July 2026 and March 2027. The average daily sentenced population is projected to be between 6,000 and 6,750 in March 2027, compared with 6,249 on 1 July 2026.
Over the coming months, remand arrivals, sentenced arrivals, case conclusion levels and sentenced departures will be monitored to assess which scenario the actual prison population most closely tracks.
The projections include the estimated effect of the STP30 change implemented in May and June 2026.
This publication extends the projection horizon beyond the six-month window used in previous publications, reflecting recent methodological development and validation work. However, uncertainty increases over longer horizons, and the later months of the projection should be interpreted with greater caution than the earlier months. Future development will continue to explore improvements to the modelling approach and the assumptions used to further extend the projection horizon.