Scottish Prison Population Projections: July 2026

The latest prison population projections are shown in Figure 17 and Table 2 below.

Figure 17. Prison population projections for July 2026 to March 2027. The projection range, sometimes referred to as the fan, includes the overlapping 50%, 75% and 95% prediction intervals for all scenario variants given in Table 1. The actual population is shown as a series of black points.

On 1 July 2026, the total prison population was 8,466. The overall projected range for the average daily prison population in March 2027 is between 8,100 and 9,150. The modelling indicates it is likely that the overall prison population in Scotland will increase between July 2026 and March 2027.

EER may have had a small residual effect on the population at the start of the projection period. This is difficult to quantify given the subsequent implementation of STP30, but any remaining effect is expected to be minimal over the projection period.

The remand population is sensitive to a range of factors, including remand arrivals, court conclusion rates and the outcomes of concluded cases. This is reflected in the projected range for the average daily remand population of 1,400 to 3,100 in March 2027, compared with 2,217 on 1 July 2026. This implies there is a realistic possibility that the average daily remand population could either increase or decrease over the projection horizon.

If the remand population decreases primarily because more remand cases are concluded, this could increase the sentenced population where people transition from remand to sentenced custody.

The sentenced population on 1 July 2026 was 6,249. The projected range for the average daily sentenced population in March 2027 is between 6,000 and 6,750. The modelling indicates that it is likely that the sentenced prison population in Scotland will increase between July 2026 and March 2027, although the wider scenario range includes outcomes below the starting population.

Sentenced population growth could be driven by increased transitions from remand to sentenced custody, increased direct arrivals from the community, or a combination of both.

Table 2. Prison average daily population upper and lower estimates for July 2026 to March 2027[1]. These estimates are calculated from the 95% prediction intervals combined across all three scenario variants given in Table 1.

In Table 2, the upper range estimates for the total and remand populations are from the ‘low’ court conclusion rate scenario, while the upper range estimates for the sentenced population are from the ‘high’ court conclusion rate scenario. The lower range estimates for the total and remand populations are from the ‘high’ court conclusion rate scenario, while the lower range estimates for the sentenced population are from the ‘low’ court conclusion rate scenario. This reflects the fact that lower court conclusion rates tend to sustain higher remand populations, while higher court conclusion rates can reduce the remand population by concluding more remand cases. Not all concluded remand cases result in an ongoing sentenced prison place: some result in non-custodial outcomes, while others result in sentences that are partly or fully backdated to reflect time already spent on remand. These outcomes can reduce the total prison population.

If actual court conclusion rates align with the ‘low’ scenario, the overall prison population is highly likely to rise. If conclusion rates align more closely with the ‘central’ or ‘high’ scenarios, there is a greater possibility that the population will remain broadly similar to current levels or reduce. Court conclusion rates will continue to be monitored over the coming months to assess which scenario the population most closely tracks.

While the projections are based on recent trends and current assumptions, they do not explicitly model the impact of potential future policy or operational changes on the prison population.

[1] The values have been rounded to the nearest 50 and exclude the Home Detention Curfew population. The upper and lower estimates of the total prison population may not be equal to the sum of the sentenced and remand populations as they can be from different scenario variants.