Scottish Prison Population Projections: July 2026

As shown in Figure 2, there have been substantial fluctuations in the total, sentenced and remand populations since 2020.

Figure 2. Prison population (total, remand and sentenced), between 26 March 2020 and 1 July 2026[1].

Total population

As can be seen in Figure 2, the prison population fluctuated within a range between 7,350 and 7,650 from September 2020 until late 2022. In 2023 and 2024, the population grew significantly, peaking at 8,361 on 14 May 2024.

The Emergency Early Release[2] of certain short-term prisoners led to 477 individuals being released early in June and July 2024. Following this, the population rose again, reaching 8,260 on 6 December 2024[3]. Seasonal fluctuations continued into early 2025, before the population increased to reach 8,375 on 18 February 2025.

In November 2024, the Scottish Government passed an Emergency Bill, resulting in eligible short-term prisoners being released at 40% of their sentence rather than 50%[4]. The 312 individuals immediately impacted were released in tranches in February and March 2025[5].

This brought the population down to 8,170 on 21 March. It increased during the following months, reaching an all-time high of 8,441 on 11 November 2025. During another EER process, which ran from November 2025 to April 2026, a total of 614 individuals were released. The prison population reached a new high of 8,603 on 26 May 2026, before reducing following the implementation of STP30. The total prison population was 8,466 on 1 July 2026.

Remand population

The remand population peaked at 2,360 on 14 May 2024. Since then, it has generally fluctuated between 2,000 and 2,300, standing at 2,217 on 1 July 2026. Remand levels remain sensitive to the balance between new remand arrivals, the rate at which remand cases conclude in court, and the outcomes of those conclusions.

Sentenced population

The sentenced population decreased slightly during 2022, from around 5,350 in January to approximately 5,250 in December. It generally increased throughout 2023 and early 2024 until it reached 6,056 on 21 June 2024.

Following the 2024 EER measures[6], the sentenced population fell to 5,691 on 20 July 2024, but rose again later in the year. It stood at 6,108 on 17 February 2025, just prior to the implementation of the Prisoners (Early Release) Act 2025. The population then declined to 5,891 on 23 March, before increasing again to reach its highest level in 2025 of 6,285 on 7 November 2025, just prior to another round of EER. Following the final tranche of EER, the sentenced population rose again, to reach 6,423 on 22 May 2026. Individuals immediately affected by STP30 were released in three tranches during May and June 2026, contributing to the fall in the sentenced population to 6,249 on 1 July 2026. Recent changes to short-term prisoner release arrangements mean that movements in the sentenced population during 2025 and 2026 should be interpreted in the context of EER and changes to the automatic release point for eligible short-term prisoners.

 

Remand Arrivals and Sentenced Departures

The prison population varies according to the volume and composition of the flows into and out of the remand and sentenced populations. Remand arrivals and sentenced departures are particularly important as they represent the main inflows and outflows, respectively, from the overall prison population.

Figure 3 shows monthly remand arrivals and sentenced departures from April 2020 to June 2026. The three-month period with the lowest remand arrivals in the last 12 months – excluding December due to seasonal effects – was September to November 2025.

Sentenced departures peaked in June 2026, partly due to transitional releases associated with the implementation of STP30.

Figure 3. Remand Arrivals and Sentenced Departures per month between April 2020 and June 2026.

Composition of the sentenced prison population

Figure 4 shows the sentenced prison population from March 2020 to July 2026, broken down by sentence length. All population groups tended to increase between 1 January 2023 and June 2024. The short-term prison population has decreased at several points due to:

• EER measures in June and July 2024;
• changes to short-term prisoner release arrangements in early 2025;
• EER from November 2025 to April 2026; and
• further changes to short-term prisoner release arrangements in May and June 2026.

The population serving overall sentences of more than four years, as well as those serving Orders for Lifelong Restriction, have steadily increased over several years and now exceed pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, the population serving life sentences has gradually declined since 2020.

Figure 4. Sentenced population by overall sentence length from 26 March 2020 to 13 July 2026[7].

Drivers of growth in prison population since 2023

The growth in the total prison population since the beginning of 2023 has been driven by increases in both remand and sentenced arrivals. The remand population is influenced by the level of new cases registered and the number of cases concluded in Scottish courts[8].

Elevated court throughput (i.e., case conclusions) can lead to increased flow into the sentenced population. The Scottish Courts and Tribunals Service (SCTS) regularly publishes data on case registrations and conclusions across all court types.

On 1 April 2023, some court recovery programme resources were reallocated from summary to solemn procedure. This resulted in the addition of two High Court and six Sheriff Solemn trial courts[9], but a reduction of ten Sheriff Summary trial courts.

Figures 5 to 10 present trends in registrations and conclusions in recent years for High Court, Sheriff Court Solemn and Sheriff Court Summary.

Figure 5 shows the number of High Court indictment registrations over the last decade from 2014/15 Q1[10] to 2025/26 Q4. The level of very serious criminal cases registered has increased such that the number of High Court indictments registered in 2025/26 Q4 (375) was 21% higher than during 2024/25 Q4 (310). In the latest SCTS criminal court modelling[11], the assumed average High Court indictments per quarter in 2025/26 was 381.

Figure 5. High Court Indictments registered per quarter from April 2014 to March 2026.

Figure 6 shows that High Court conclusions during 2025/26 Q4 (300) were around 3% higher than during 2024/25 Q4 (292).

High Court imprisonment disposals are likely to remain elevated compared with the pre-pandemic period. For example, in 2025/26 Q3 there were 274 imprisonments – 10% more than the 250 recorded in 2019/20 Q3.

Figure 6. High Court Indictments concluded per quarter from April 2014 to March 2026.

Figure 7 shows that Sheriff Solemn Indictment registrations in 2025/26 Q4 (1,918) were around 7% higher than during 2024/25 Q4 (1,789).

Figure 7. Sheriff Court Solemn Indictments registered per quarter from April 2014 to March 2026.

Figure 8 shows that conclusions declined, by 5%, from 1,935 in 2024/25 Q4 to 1,846 in 2025/26 Q4.

Sheriff Solemn imprisonment disposals were lower recently than prior to the pandemic; for example, in 2025/26 Q3 there were 1,493 imprisonments – 9% less than the 1,639 recorded in 2019/20 Q3 [12].

Figure 8. Sheriff Court Solemn Indictments concluded per quarter from April 2014 to March 2026.

Figure 9 shows that 15,103 complaints were registered in 2025/26 Q4 in Sheriff Summary Courts, a 2% increase from 14,791 in 2024/25 Q4.

Figure 9. Sheriff Court Summary complaints registered per quarter from April 2014 to March 2026.

Figure 10 shows that Sheriff Court summary conclusions in 2025/26 Q4 were around 6% lower than during 2024/25 Q4.

Sheriff Summary imprisonment disposals were around 2% lower in 2025/26 Q3 than in 2019/20 Q3.

Figure 10. Sheriff Court Summary complaints concluded per quarter from April 2014 to March 2026.

Taking all courts into consideration, elevated remand arrivals are associated with increased levels of both summary and solemn criminal court activity[13].

SCTS quarterly management information shows that the total number of trials scheduled[14] across all criminal courts increased steeply by around 140% from 18,100 in April 2020 to over 43,600 at the peak in January 2022 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. By the end of March 2026, it had fallen to 13,268[15].

However, trends vary by court type:

• Figure 11 shows that the number of outstanding High Court trials has increased by 35% between March 2025 (743) and March 2026 (1,002).
• Figure 12 shows that outstanding Sheriff Solemn trials increased by 7% over the same period.
• Figure 13 shows a substantial 43% reduction in outstanding Sheriff Summary trials between March 2025 and March 2026.

Figure 11. High Court scheduled trials at end of period per quarter from April 2018 to March 2026.

Figure 12. Sheriff Court Solemn scheduled trials at end of period per quarter from April 2014 to March 2026.

Figure 13. Sheriff Court Summary scheduled trials at end of period per quarter from April 2014 to March 2026.

 

[2] SPS Early Release Data, Research and Evidence Early Release of Prisoners and Prescribed Victim Supporters (Scotland) Regulations 2024- Data Analysis Summary Report.pdf (sps.gov.uk) 2 September 2024

[3] Data, Research and Evidence | Scottish Prison Service accessed 22 July 2026

[4] Release arrangements - Short-term prisoner release - gov.scot accessed 18 February 2025

[5] Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Act 2025 data publication.pdf accessed 23 February 2026

[6] Scottish Government, Prison population information note Prison population: information note - gov.scot 12 June 2024

[7] Prison population monthly report Safer communities and justice statistics monthly reports - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) accessed 13 July 2026

[8] Management Information from the Scottish Courts and Tribunals Service (SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk)) includes information about the arrival and liberty status for criminal case new business. This information includes the proportion who are on remand following Sheriff Court Petition (First Appearance) and Sheriff Court Summary First Calling (First Appearance), which have been broadly stable, ranging between 33.2% to 35.0% and 6.0 to 6.8% respectively during the past four years.

[9] SCTS Quarterly Criminal Court (QCC) bulletin Latest quarterly criminal court figures show progress in Sheriff solemn backlog (scotcourts.gov.uk) 7 September 2023

[10] The SCTS Statistics follow an annual cycle which begins on 1 April, hence Q1 covers April to June, Q2 covers July to September, Q3 includes October to December and Q4 runs from January to March.

[11] SCTS Criminal Court Modelling scts-modelling-report-sep-25-final.pdf September 2025

[12] Scottish Government Justice Analytical Services Criminal Disposals Dashboard Scottish Government Justice Analytical Services Criminal Disposals Dashboard (shinyapps.io) accessed 13 July 2026. The management information in the disposals dashboard shows disposals issued in Scottish criminal courts at charge level. This data does not indicate how many people received disposals as each accused person can have multiple charges and each charge can receive multiple disposals. Therefore, a change in charge level disposals could be related to changes in complexity of cases being disposed of in court (more or less charges per case). As such, the level of imprisonment disposals provides a broadly indicative, rather than precise, measure of activity.

[13] Analysis of the drivers of criminal case registrations are beyond the scope of this publication. National crime statistics are updated annually: Recorded crime in Scotland - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

[14] Outstanding trials scheduled are sometimes colloquially known as the criminal trials backlog.

[15] SCTS Criminal Court modelling scts-modelling-report-sep-25-final.pdf September 2025