Scottish Prison Population Projections: July 2026
This report presents short-term Scottish prison population projections for the nine month period from July 2026 to March 2027.
This report presents the July 2026 edition of the Scottish prison population projections. It brings together recent trends in the prison population and court activity, before setting out the assumptions, scenarios and projections for the period from July 2026 to March 2027.
The projections are produced using microsimulation scenario modelling. In broad terms, the model simulates arrivals to, movements within, and departures from the prison population to estimate future population levels. A more detailed explanation of the modelling approach, including the assumptions used and the way scenarios are produced, is provided later in this report and in the technical annex.
The report is organised as follows:
- Section 3 provides an overview of the prison population from 2020 to 2026 and trends in court demand from 2014 to 2026. It also discusses the drivers of population growth since 2023.
- Section 4 explains how the projections are produced and interpreted, including the model assumptions, scenarios, outputs, quality assurance and limitations.
- Section 5 presents the latest population projection results for the period from July 2026 to March 2027.
- Section 6 summarises the key conclusions from the modelling and discusses the short-term factors that may influence prison population levels.
- Section 7 provides a technical annex, which gives further detail on the modelling approach, daily simulation process, scenario assumptions and limitations.