Scottish Prison Population Projections: February 2026

This is the tenth report published since June 2023 on the Scottish Government's modelling of the level of potential demand for prison accommodation in Scotland. It presents prison population projections for the six-month period from February 2026 to July 2026[1]. These have been produced using ‘microsimulation’ scenario modelling, which simulates prison arrivals and departures to estimate the number of individuals in prison on a given future date.

The projections are produced to support high-level decision-making, planning, and policy development. As they do not account for the full complexity of the prison population, they are not intended for use in the day-to-day management of those in prison.

The modelling accounts for how criminal justice system activity (especially in the courts) and the flows that drive the prison population may change and uses these to estimate short-term changes in the population. The uncertainty surrounding court activity is reflected in the three scenarios based on different levels of court case conclusions: ‘low’, ‘central’, and ‘high’.

As highlighted in previous publications, the key short-term drivers of the prison population are expected to be the flows into and out of the remand and sentenced populations.

Developments since the last publication

The previous projections were published in October 2025, and there have been several policy developments since then.

First, from October 2025, eligibility for Home Detention Curfew (HDC) was expanded to prisoners who have served 15% of their custodial sentence (down from 25%), and the maximum time prisoners can be released on an HDC licence was increased to 210 days (from 180)[2]. 

The population projections in this publication reflect the reduction in the sentenced population due to this legislative measure by adjusting release points accordingly. 

Second, Emergency Early Release (EER) of certain short-term prisoners has been underway since November 2025. A total of 428 prisoners were released across the first four tranches between 11 November 2025 and 29 January 2026[3]. Three further tranches are planned through April 2026, which may result in the release of a further 200 individuals. 

Finally, as a result of continued and increasing pressures on prison estate capacity, the Scottish Government announced on 3 February 2026 that it will be pursuing further measures to address and mitigate the rising prison population[4]. It is seeking Parliamentary approval to reduce the automatic release point for certain short-term prisoners so that they serve 30% of their sentence in custody instead of 40% (STP30)[5]. This would not apply to those serving sentences for domestic abuse and sexual offences. As this measure has not yet secured Parliamentary approval, its effects are not reflected in these latest projections.

Key Points

On 1 February 2026, the overall prison population in Scotland was 8,257, comprising 2,156 on remand and 6,101 sentenced prisoners[6].

Due to the emergency releases in late January 2026, the population on 1 February 2026 is estimated to have been approximately 180–200 lower than it would otherwise have been[7]. The reduction due to emergency release is temporary and is expected to reduce to minimal levels within weeks of the final tranche, planned for April 2026.

The latest prison population projections, shown in Figure 1, indicate that if current trends continue and no further interventions (including STP30) are introduced, then:

• The overall prison population is highly likely[8] to increase between 1 February and 31 July 2026.
• Across the three projection scenarios, the average daily prison population in July 2026 is expected to be between 8,200 and 8,800[9].
• The remand population is sensitive to a range of factors, which is reflected in the projected range of 1,450 to 2,500, compared to 2,156 on 1 February 2026. This implies there is a realistic possibility that the average daily remand population could either increase or decrease over the projection horizon. 
• The sentenced population is almost certain to increase between February and July 2026, reaching an average daily total of between 6,200 and 6,850 in July 2026, compared to 6,101 on 1 February 2026.

If the actual rate of court case conclusions aligns with the 'low' or 'central' scenarios, demand for prison spaces is highly likely to rise. If it aligns with the 'high' scenario, then it is possible that the demand for prison spaces could reduce very slightly. We will monitor the actual rate of court case conclusions over the coming months to identify which scenario the population most closely tracks. 

Between October 2025 and February 2026, the actual prison population closely followed the 'low' court case conclusions scenario[10]. This is the scenario which results in the highest expected population levels. 

Figure 1. Prison population projections for February 2026 to July 2026. The projection range includes the overlapping 50%, 75% and 95% prediction intervals for all scenario variants given in Table 1. The actual population is shown as a series of black points.