Scottish Prison Population Projections: February 2026

 The latest prison population projections are shown in Figure 18 and Table 2 below.

Figure 18. Prison population projections for February 2026 to July 2026. The projection range (sometimes referred to as the fan) includes the overlapping 50%, 75% and 95% prediction intervals for all scenario variants given in Table 1. The actual population is shown as a series of black points.

On 1 February 2026, the total prison population was 8,257. The overall projected range for the average daily prison population in July 2026 is between 8,200 and 8,800. The modelling indicates it is highly likely that the overall prison population in Scotland will increase between the beginning of February 2026 and the end of July 2026.

It is important to note that the population on 1 February 2026 is estimated to have been approximately 180–200 lower than it would have been had EER not been implemented. As the impact of EER is temporary, it is unsurprising that the projections show a high likelihood of increases over the projection horizon.

The remand population is sensitive to a range of factors, which is reflected in the projected range for the average daily remand population of 1,450 to 2,500, compared to 2,156 on 1 February 2026. This implies there is a realistic possibility that the average daily remand population could either increase or decrease over the projection horizon.

If the remand population decreases primarily because of enhanced monthly case conclusions, this could contribute to an increased sentenced population as people transition from remand to the sentenced population.

The sentenced population on 1 February 2026 was 6,101. The projected range for the average daily sentenced population in July 2026 is between 6,200 and 6,850. Modelling indicates that it is almost certain that the sentenced prison population in Scotland will increase between February 2026 and July 2026. Again, it is important to note that the sentenced population on 1 February is estimated to have been approximately 180–200 lower than it otherwise would have been.

The rate of inflows to the sentenced population could increase if either the overall rate of transition from remand to the sentenced population increases or if there is a greater inflow of individuals directly from the community to the sentenced population.

Table 2. Prison average daily population upper/lower estimates for February 2026 to July 2026[1]. These estimates are calculated from the 95% prediction intervals combined across all three scenario variants given in Table 1.

In Table 2, the upper range estimates for the total and remand populations are from the ‘low’ court conclusion rate scenario and for the sentenced population from the ‘high’ court conclusion rate scenario. The lower range estimates for the total and remand populations are from the ‘high’ court conclusion rate scenario and for the sentenced population from the ‘low’ court conclusion rate scenario.

It should be reiterated that while the projections are based on recent trends, they do not explicitly model the impact of potential future policy or operational changes, nor their potential impact on the prison population.

[1] The values have been rounded to the nearest 50 and exclude the home detention curfew population. The upper and lower estimates of the total prison population may not be equal to the sum of the sentenced and remand populations as they can be from different scenario variants.