Scottish Prison Population Projections: February 2026

As shown in Figure 2, there have been substantial fluctuations in both the total and sentenced populations since 2020.

Figure 2. Prison population (total, remand and sentenced), between 26 March 2020 and 1 February 2026[1].

Total population

As can be seen in Figure 2, the prison population fluctuated within a range between 7,350 and 7,650 from September 2020 until late 2022. In 2023 and 2024, the population grew significantly, peaking at 8,361 on 14 May 2024.

The Emergency Early Release[2] of certain short-term prisoners led to 477 individuals being released early in June and July 2024. Following this, the population rose again, reaching 8,260 on 6 December 2024[3]. Seasonal fluctuations continued into early 2025, before the population increased to reach 8,375 on 18 February 2025.

In November 2024, the Scottish Government passed an Emergency Bill, resulting in eligible short-term prisoners being released at 40% of their sentence rather than 50%[4]. The 312 individuals immediately impacted were released in tranches in February and March 2025[5]. This brought the population down to 8,170 on 21 March. It increased during the following months, reaching an all-time high of 8,441 on 11 November 2025. The first releases of another EER process began on 11 November 2025, and a total of 428 individuals have been released up to 12 February 2026. It is anticipated that the current EER will continue to run until the end of April 2026. The total prison population was 8,257 on 1 February 2026.

Remand population

The remand population increased in early 2024, peaking at 2,360 on 14 May. The population then declined in the second half of 2024, reaching 2,124 on 1 January 2025. The highest remand population in 2025 was 2,289 on 25 March 2025. It has since decreased, standing at 2,156 on 1 February 2026.

Sentenced population

The sentenced population decreased slightly during 2022, from around 5,350 in January to approximately 5,250 in December. It generally increased throughout 2023 and early 2024 until it reached 6,056 on 21 June 2024.

Following the EER measures[6], the sentenced population fell to 5,691 on 20 July 2024, but rose again later in the year. It stood at 6,108 on 17 February 2025, just prior to the implementation of the Prisoners (Early Release) Act 2025. The population then declined to 5,891 on 23 March, before increasing again to reach its highest level in 2025 of 6,285 on 7 November 2025, just prior to EER. The sentenced population stood at 6,101 on 1 February 2026.

Remand Arrivals and Sentenced Departures

The prison population varies according to the volume and composition of the flows into and out of the remand and sentenced populations. Remand arrivals and sentenced departures are particularly important as they represent the main inflows and outflows, respectively, from the overall prison population.

Figure 3 shows monthly remand arrivals and sentenced departures from April 2020 to January 2026. The three-month period with the lowest remand arrivals – excluding December due to seasonal effects – was September to November 2025, with an average of around 700 remand arrivals per month.

Sentenced departures peaked in March 2025, partly due to the second and third tranches of early release under the new legislation.

Figure 3. Remand Arrivals and Sentenced Departures per month between April 2020 and January 2026.

Composition of the sentenced prison population

Figure 4 shows the sentenced prison population from March 2020 to February 2026, broken down by sentence length. All population groups tended to increase between 1 January 2023 and June 2024. The short-term prison population has decreased due to:

• EER measures in June and July 2024;
• amendments to the short-term prisoner early release in early 2025; and
• EER measures from November 2025.

The population serving overall sentences of more than four years, as well as those serving Orders for Lifelong Restriction, have steadily increased over several years and now exceed pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, the population serving life sentences has gradually declined since 2020.

Figure 4. Prison population by overall sentence from 26 March 2020 to 9 February 2026[7].

Drivers of growth in prison population since 2023

The growth in the total prison population since the beginning of 2023 has been driven by increases in both remand and sentenced arrivals. The remand population is influenced by the level of new cases registered and the number of cases concluded in Scottish Courts[8]. Elevated court throughput (i.e., case conclusions) can lead to increased flow into the sentenced population. The Scottish Courts and Tribunals Service (SCTS) regularly publishes data on case registrations and conclusions across all court types.

On 1 April 2023, some court recovery programme resources were reallocated from summary to solemn procedure. This resulted in the addition of two High Court and six Sheriff Solemn trial courts[9], but a reduction of ten Sheriff Summary trial courts.

Figures 5 to 10 present trends in registrations and conclusions in recent years for High Court, Sheriff Court Solemn and Sheriff Court Summary.

Figure 5 shows the number of High Court indictment registrations over the last decade from 2014/15 Q1[10] to 2025/26 Q3. The level of very serious criminal cases registered has increased such that the number of High Court indictments registered in 2025/26 Q3 (340) was 29% higher than during 2024/25 Q3 (264). In the latest SCTS criminal court modelling[11], it is assumed that the average High Court indictments per quarter in 2025/26 will be 381.  

Figure 5. High Court Indictments registered per quarter from April 2014 to December 2025.

Figure 6 shows that High Court conclusions during 2025/26 Q3 (298) were around 4% higher than during 2024/25 Q3 (286).

High Court imprisonment disposals are likely to continue to be elevated compared to prior to the pandemic. For example, in 2025/26 Q1 there were 341 imprisonments - 15% more than the 296 recorded in 2019/20 Q1. 

Figure 6. High Court Indictments concluded per quarter from April 2014 to December 2025.

Figure 7 shows that Sheriff Solemn Indictment registrations in 2025/26 Q3 (1,742) were around 5% lower than during 2024/25 Q3 (1,841).

Figure 7. Sheriff Court Solemn Indictments registered per quarter from April 2014 to December 2025.

Figure 8 shows that conclusions also declined, by 16%, from 1,744 in 2024/25 Q3 to 1,461 in 2025/26 Q3.

Sheriff Solemn imprisonment disposals are likely to continue to be elevated compared to prior to the introduction of additional solemn courts; for example, in 2025/26 Q1 there were 1,792 imprisonments – 31% more than the 1,372 recorded in 2019/20 Q1 [12].

Figure 8. Sheriff Court Solemn Indictments concluded per quarter from April 2014 to December 2025.

Figure 9 shows that 14,014 complaints were registered in 2025/26 Q3 in Sheriff Summary Courts, a 3% decrease from 14,519 in 2024/25 Q3.

Figure 9. Sheriff Court Summary complaints registered per quarter from April 2014 to December 2025.

Figure 10 shows that Sheriff Court summary conclusions in 2025/26 Q3 were around 12% lower than during 2024/25 Q3.

Sheriff Summary imprisonment disposals were around 9% lower in 2025/26 Q1 than in 2019/20 Q1. 

Figure 10. Sheriff Court Summary complaints concluded per quarter from April 2014 to December 2025.

Taking all courts into consideration, elevated remand arrivals are associated with increased levels of both summary and solemn criminal court activity[13].

SCTS quarterly management information shows that the total number of trials scheduled[14] across all criminal courts increased steeply by around 140% from 18,100 in April 2020 to over 43,600 at the peak in January 2022 due to the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. By the end of December 2025, it had fallen to 15,341[15].

However, trends vary by court type:

• Figure 11 shows that the number of outstanding High Court trials has increased by 29% between December 2024 (744) and December 2025 (957).
• Figure 12 shows that outstanding Sheriff Solemn trials decreased by 11% over the same period, reflecting the impact of enhanced solemn court capacity.
• Figure 13 shows a substantial 36% reduction in outstanding Sheriff Summary trials between December 2024 and December 2025.

Figure 11. High Court scheduled trials at end of period per quarter from April 2018 to December 2025.

Figure 12. Sheriff Court Solemn scheduled trials at end of period per quarter from April 2014 to December 2025.

Figure 13. Sheriff Court Summary scheduled trials at end of period per quarter from April 2014 to December 2025.

[2] SPS Early Release Data, Research and Evidence Early Release of Prisoners and Prescribed Victim Supporters (Scotland) Regulations 2024- Data Analysis Summary Report.pdf (sps.gov.uk) 2 September 2024

[3] Data, Research and Evidence | Scottish Prison Service accessed 12 February 2026

[4] Release arrangements - Short-term prisoner release - gov.scot 18 February 2025

[5] Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Act 2025 data publication.pdf accessed 23 February 2026

[6] Scottish Government, Prison population information note Prison population: information note - gov.scot 12 June 2024

[7] Prison population monthly report Safer communities and justice statistics monthly reports - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) accessed 23 February 2026

[8] Management Information from the Scottish Courts and Tribunals Service (SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk)) includes information about the arrival and liberty status for criminal case new business. This information includes the proportion who are on remand following Sheriff Court Petition (First Appearance) and Sheriff Court Summary First Calling (First Appearance), which have been broadly stable, ranging between 33.2% to 35.0% and 6.0 to 6.8% respectively during the past four years.

[9] SCTS Quarterly Criminal Court (QCC) bulletin Latest quarterly criminal court figures show progress in Sheriff solemn backlog (scotcourts.gov.uk) 7 September 2023

[10] The SCTS Statistics follow an annual cycle which begins on 1 April, hence Q1 covers April to June, Q2 covers July to September, Q3 includes October to December and Q4 runs from January to March.

[11] SCTS Criminal Court Modelling scts-modelling-report-sep-25-final.pdf September 2025

[12] Scottish Government Justice Analytical Services Criminal Disposals Dashboard Scottish Government Justice Analytical Services Criminal Disposals Dashboard (shinyapps.io) accessed 12 February 2026. The management information in the disposals dashboard shows disposals issued in Scottish criminal courts at charge level. This data does not indicate how many people received disposals as each accused person can have multiple charges and each charge can receive multiple disposals. Therefore, a change in charge level disposals could be related to changes in complexity of cases being disposed of in court (more or less charges per case). As such, the level of imprisonment disposals provides a broadly indicative, rather than precise, measure of activity.

[13] Analysis of the drivers of criminal case registrations are beyond the scope of this publication. National crime statistics are updated annually: Recorded crime in Scotland - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

[14] Outstanding trials scheduled are sometimes colloquially known as the criminal trials backlog.

[15] SCTS Criminal Court Modelling scts-modelling-report-sep-25-final.pdf September 2025