Justice Secretary's statement: Scotland’s Prison Population - 3 February 2026

Presiding Officer, throughout my tenure as Justice Secretary, I have taken significant steps to both strengthen our justice system and to address the rising prison population. I have also proactively kept Parliament up to date on this critical issue and any proposals and measures we are taking alongside a clear explanation as to why I believed these were necessary.

In November 2024, this Parliament agreed to modify the release point for certain short-term prisoners, so that they are released after serving 40% of their sentence rather than 50% of their sentence. This change is projected to result in an  approximate 5% sustained reduction across the sentenced population of short-term prisoners compared to if no change had been made.

The Scottish Prison Service has further optimised capacity in the existing estate to create 400 additional spaces compared with 2024. We have also increased SPS capital funding to £355 million this year, with £458.5 million allocated next year to support construction of two new prisons. HMP Highland, due for completion in late 2026, will provide 107 additional places, while HMP Glasgow, expected in 2028, will add 357 places.

We have also significantly increased investment in community justice, bringing the total funding for this year to £159 million. This investment enabled expansion of the availability and the use of alternatives to custody. In 2024–25, 1,500 bail supervision cases were commenced; —the highest in ten years. Electronically monitored bail also remains high, with 1,470 cases recorded over the year. Use of Community Payback Orders has grown too, with 16,500 CPOs commenced in 2024–25; —a 9% increase on 2023–24 and the fifth‑highest total in a decade.

In November 2025, Parliament approved a further emergency release of certain short-term prisoners. This measure included important safeguards to protect the public and victims, and we have worked in close partnership with the NHS, local authorities and the third sector to provide additional support upon release to facilitate successful reintegration into communities.

We have completed four tranches of emergency early releases with 415 prisoners released to date, which is lower than expected. There are further three tranches planned until April, which are estimated to result in further 100-200 prisoners being released.   

The action taken by this Government has been necessary to ensure the safe running of our prison estate for those in prison, and importantly also for the hard working staff.

All these measures couldn’t have been successfully implemented without the hard work of Scottish Prison Service staff, justice social work services and range of other partners, and I would like to take this opportunity to thank them for their dedication and commitment.

Presiding Officer, despite the best efforts of this Government and our delivery partners, the prison population remains stubbornly high, and the current trajectory indicates that this upwards trend will continue.

Today, the prison population is sitting at 8,301. As of 27 January, 8 prisons are showing red risk status and 15 are being close to or over their assessed capacity tolerance.

The continued rise in the prison population reflects the action we have taken to strengthen the justice system. For example, the number of homicide victims in 2024-25 was the lowest since comparable records began in 1976 and recorded crime rates remain among the lowest in more than 50 years.

However, at the same time we are seeing more convictions for serious and organised crime, as well as for recent and historical sexual offences. This is a testament to the work of Police Scotland and our courts, which also reflects a confidence in reporting sexual offences, knowing that this will be taken seriously.

Sentencing patterns have also changed with considerably more people being sentenced for longer. The average custodial sentence length has increased by 37% between 2014‑15 and 2023‑24; —a significant contributor to the growing number of long‑term prisoners serving four years or more, and one that cannot be predicted.

Presiding Officer, this means that as well as having an increased, and increasing, prison population, the composition of our prison population has also changed considerably and together this creates significant risks for those who work and live in our prisons. These risks cannot be underestimated and the projections are clear. The emergency release provides only a temporary relief and therefore, will not reduce prison population pressures to a safe and sustainable level on its own, and further action is therefore required.

Presiding Officer, that is why - alongside our work to prevent crime, expand prison capacity, reduce reoffending, and strengthen alternatives to custody, which I am clear must all continue - I believe that additional changes to the automatic release point for certain short‑term prisoners are now necessary to deliver a further, sustained reduction in the prison population.

Following careful consideration of the options available to me, I would therefore like to notify the Parliament of my intention to carry out a short consultation with relevant partners on this issue, with the aim of laying secondary legislation next week for Parliament’s approval. This is necessary to meet Standing Orders on SSIs and ensure that the regulations can be scrutinised ahead of Parliament’s dissolution.  

This consultation will seek views on changing the automatic release point for certain short-term prisoners, so that they serve 30% of their sentence in custody, instead of 40%. This would not apply to those serving sentences for domestic abuse and sexual offences. Unlike with emergency early release, this change would deliver a reduction that would be sustained over time.

Presiding Officer, protecting victims and public safety remains an absolute priority for this Government. Let me therefore stress that the proposed changes would not apply to those serving long-term custodial sentences over four years, or those serving sentences for domestic abuse and sexual offences. This recognises the particular concerns that can arise in relation to those offences and the considerable progress which has been made in recent years so that victims and survivors can have confidence in the justice system.

Presiding Officer, let me make clear that this is not a decision I have taken lightly. It remains crucial that those who pose the greatest risk of harm to the public are housed in prisons. However, it is also the case that there are too many people in our prisons and like the rest of the UK, we remain an outlier amongst western nations in this regard.

Whilst this measure is required in the immediate term, we must look beyond that, to a sustainable long-term position, which reduces reliance on custody and makes use of robust community alternatives. The Sentencing and Penal Policy Commission, which I established last year, will be publishing its recommendations shortly. We will consider its recommendations in detail, and I will return to Parliament  following its publication.

We know that community sentences are more effective in reducing reoffending than short-term prison sentences, which disrupt families and adversely affect employment opportunities and stable housing. Managed release processes are therefore an important and a recognised part of our justice system. They support meaningful rehabilitation and reintegration into society.

Those leaving prison after a short-term sentence in Scotland are entitled to request throughcare support, which is provided through their local authority, a third sector organisation or the national voluntary service, Upside. These services provide flexible and personalised support before, during and after release. They help prisoners access support to find somewhere to stay, find a job and healthcare. We have seen this can support successful reintegration and contribute to reduced risk of reoffending, less crime, fewer victims and safer communities. This is what we all want to see.

Presiding Officer, to conclude, I believe that this action is necessary and that the proposed exclusions I outlined strike the right balance between recognising the concerns of victims and survivors, while supporting a sustained reduction in the prison population, which is essential in enabling our prison estate to function safely and effectively.