Publication - Research and analysis
Scottish Economic Bulletin: October 2026
Provides a summary of latest key economic statistics, forecasts and analysis on the Scottish economy.
Data and Forecasts Summary
| Indicator | Latest Data | Next Release | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (3-month rolling %) | 0.7% (Jul) | 28 October | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | n/a | n/a |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 5.1% (May - Jul) | 20 October | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 5.1 | n/a | n/a |
| Real Earnings growth (YoY %) | 0.5% (Aug) | 21 October | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | n/a |
| Inflation rate (CPI YoY %) | 3.1% (Aug) | 21 October | 3.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.1 | n/a |
| BoE Base Rate (%) | 3.75% (Sep) | 5 November | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Consumer Sentiment (Index) | -6.8 (Aug) | 28 October | -4.6 | -15.4 | -16.7 | -13.0 | -8.2 | -8.8 | -6.8 | n/a |
| Indicator | Organsiation | Date of Forecast | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (YoY %) | SFC | January 2026 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Unemployment rate (%) | SFC | January 2026 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| Nominal Average Earnings growth (YoY %) | SFC | January 2026 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Inflation rate (4Q rate in Q4) | BoE | July 2026 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | n/a | n/a |
Economic growth remained resilient in the three months to July and was unchanged from the three months to June.
- Scotland’s GDP grew 0.7% in the three months to July (UK: 0.4%), unchanged from the three months to June but up from 0.5% in the three months to May and from earlier in the year. Over the past year, Scotland’s GDP has grown by 1.1% (UK: 1.3%).[1],[2]
- At a sector level, growth was driven by the Services (0.8%) and Production (0.1%) sectors, partly offset by a fall in Construction sector output (-0.5%).
- Services sector growth strengthened to its highest 3-monthly rate since March 2025 and was relatively broad based with consumer facing services growth rising to 0.9%, up from 0.5% in the three months to June. This was partly supported by stronger growth in accommodation & food services which grew by 2.5%, its fastest 3-monthly rate since June 2025, in which the ONS reported some positive reporting in hospitality turnover arising due to the FIFA World Cup. Over the past year to the 3-months to July, Services sector output has grown 1.4%.
- Production sector growth (0.1%) eased to its slowest rate since March with growth within the sector mainly driven by manufacturing (0.1%) and water supply and waste management (0.8%). On an annual basis, Production output has grown 0.9% in the three months to July.
- Construction sector output contracted by 0.5% in the 3-months to July, following 0.3% growth over the second quarter. Construction growth overall remains subdued, with output falling by 2.2% on an annual basis in the 3-months to July.
Contact
Email: economic.statistics@gov.scot