Scottish economic bulletin: July 2026
Provides a summary of latest key economic statistics, forecasts and analysis on the Scottish economy.
Data and Forecasts Summary
Outturn Data
|
Indicator |
Latest Data |
Next Release |
2025 Oct |
2025 Nov |
2025 Dec |
2026 Jan |
2026 Feb |
2026 Mar |
2026 Apr |
2026 May |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GDP growth (3-month rolling %) |
0.1% (Apr) |
29 July |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
n/a |
|
Unemployment rate (%) |
4.3% (Feb - Apr) |
21 July |
3.8 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
n/a |
|
Real Earnings growth (YoY%) |
2.4% (May) |
22 July |
0.5 |
-1.9 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
|
Inflation rate (CPI YoY%) |
2.8% (May) |
22 July |
3.6 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.3 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
|
BoEBase rate (%) |
3.75% (Jun) |
30 July |
4.0 |
4.0 |
3.75 |
3.75 |
3.75 |
3.75 |
3.75 |
3.75 |
|
Consumer Sentiment (Index) |
-13.0 (May) |
29 July |
-6.6 |
-10.2 |
-9.6 |
-5.9 |
-4.6 |
-15.4 |
-16.7 |
-13.0 |
Forecasts
|
Indicator |
Organisation |
Date of Forecast |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GDP growth (YoY%) |
SFC |
January 2026 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
Unemployment rate (%) |
SFC |
January 2026 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
|
Nominal Average Earnings growth (YoY%) |
SFC |
January 2026 |
6.4 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
|
Inflation rate (4Q rate in Q4) (MPR Scenario B) |
SFC |
April 2026 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
3.0 |
2.0 |
n/a |
n/a |
Contact
Email: economic.statistics@gov.scot