Scottish economic bulletin: January 2026

Footnotes

1 Economy statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2 GDP monthly estimate, UK - Office for National Statistics

3 Consumer price inflation, UK - Office for National Statistics

4 Monetary Policy Report - November 2025 | Bank of England

5 Bank Rate reduced to 3.75% - December 2025 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes | Bank of England

6 Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | Royal Bank of Scotland , Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | NatWest Business , https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/public/release/pressreleases

7 Business and innovation statistics - gov.scot

8 Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | Royal Bank of Scotland , Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | NatWest Business , https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/public/release/pressreleases

9 Producer price inflation, UK - Office for National Statistics

10 Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | Royal Bank of Scotland , Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | NatWest Business , https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/public/release/pressreleases

11 Labour market statistics - gov.scot

12 Nomis - Official Census and Labour Market Statistics

13 In May 2024, the Department for Work and Pensions increased the administrative earnings threshold for full work search conditionality. This change affected around 180,000 claimants in the UK, increasing the Claimant Count at the time of the change.

14 Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, seasonally adjusted - Office for National Statistics

15 Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | Royal Bank of Scotland , Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | NatWest Business , https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/public/release/pressreleases

16 Textkernel new online job adverts - Office for National Statistics

17 Earnings and employment from Pay as You Earn Real Time Information, seasonally adjusted - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

18 EFOs - Office for Budget Responsibility

19 Monetary Policy Report - November 2025 | Bank of England

20 Agents' summary of business conditions - December 2025 | Bank of England

21 Economy statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

22 Consumer confidence up two points to -17 in December - NIQ

23 Retail sales, Great Britain - Office for National Statistics

24 Effective interest rates - A visual summary of our data | Bank of England

25 Energy price cap explained | Ofgem

26 Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount - Office for National Statistics

27 Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – January 2026 | Scottish Fiscal Commission

28 FAI Economic Commentary Q3 2025 | FAI

29 Forecasts for the UK economy - GOV.UK

30 Economic outlook | OECD