Scottish economic bulletin: January 2026

Output

The Scottish economy grew 0.2% in the 3-months to October and 1.1% annually.

• The latest GDP data indicates that the pace of economic growth in Scotland for the 3-months to October remains slightly slower than in recent months and than at the start of the year, when anecdotal reports indicate that some activity was brought forward ahead of the changes to US tariffs.
• Scotland’s GDP grew 0.2% in the 3-months to October, albeit that growth was only evident in September (0.7%) which offset falls in output in October (-0.2) and August (-0.2%).^[1]
• In the second half of the year so far, 3-monthly growth in Scotland has been slightly stronger than at a UK level with UK output falling 0.1% in the 3-months to October. However, growth has been broadly in line over the past year, with 1.1% growth in Scotland and at a UK level.^[2]

• At a sector level, growth in the 3-months to October was driven by the Services sector (0.3%) which offset a fall in Construction (-0.3%) and flat output in the Production sector (0.0%).
• However, growth in the services sector slowed to its lowest 3-monthly rate since April, with softer growth in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (1.6%) and flat growth in Financial and Insurance Activities (0.0%). There was a pick-up in Accommodation and Food services growth (1.4%) and Retail services growth (0.9%), with Consumer Facing Services output growth more broadly strengthening to 1.0%.
• Production output was flat over the three months to October (0.0%), reflecting mixed performance across production industries. Manufacturing output increased modestly (0.3%) however has fallen 4.0% over the past year, while Mining and Quarrying output fell 1.6% and Water Supply and Waste Management output fell 2.1%.