Publication - Research and analysis
Scottish economic bulletin: January 2026
Provides a summary of latest key economic statistics, forecasts and analysis on the Scottish economy.
Data and Forecasts Summary
Outturn Data
| Indicator | Latest Data | Next Release | Timeseries | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May | June | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |||
| GDP growth (3-month rolling %) | 0.2% (Oct) | 28 January | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | n/a | n/a |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 3.8% (Aug - Oct) | 20 January | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.8 | n/a | n/a |
| Real Earnings growth (YoY %) | -2.1% (Nov) | 21 January | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | -2.1 | n/a |
| Inflation rate (CPI YoY %) | 3.2% (Nov) | 21 January | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.2 | n/a |
| BoE Base Rate (%) | 3.75% (Dec) | 5 February | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.75 |
| Consumer Sentiment (Index) | -10.2 (Nov) | 28 January | -5.5 | -6.9 | -8.8 | -8.1 | -8.1 | -6.6 | -10.2 | n/a |
Forecasts
| Indicator | Organsiation | Date of Forecast | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (YoY %) | SFC | January 2026 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Unemployment rate (%) | SFC | January 2026 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| Nominal Average Earnings growth (YoY %) | SFC | January 2026 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Inflation rate (4Q rate in Q4) | BoE | November 2025 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | n/a | n/a |
Contact
Email: economic.statistics@gov.scot