Scotland's fourth land use strategy: consultation

Section 1: Land Use in Scotland

Why is land important?

The way we use and manage our land forms the foundation of life in Scotland. Alongside our water, seas and air, it contributes to our natural capital - the habitats and resources of the natural world that provide essential social, economic, and environmental benefits. This includes the food we eat, the water we drink, the air we breathe, the soil we cultivate, and the plants and wildlife we rely on.

The value and potential of Scotland’s land assets have been highlighted by the government’s independent advisers on climate change, the UK Committee on Climate Change. Their analysis has made it clear that one of the main reasons Scotland can seek to achieve a 2045 net-zero target is because of “the excellent opportunities to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere through afforestation and carbon capture and storage in Scotland.”

As Scotland moves forward on this journey, we must recognise the need for a just transition and that land supports a wide array of needs, for example, land used for food production also provides critical services such as clean air and fresh water, and that land use policy intersects with many sectors beyond the primary priorities identified. The journey will be one of evolution and of integrating these differing demands. It will not be easy; we cannot simply offshore emissions to elsewhere in the world. We must ensure we take our nation’s food production and security into consideration, and we need an approach that allows us to integrate the various demands on land use to ensure the fine balance needed for success.

For awareness, this consultation explores elements of land use. If you have a wider interest in our overarching approach to the just transition journey within land use and agriculture, please look for the Scottish Government consultation on the Land Use and Agriculture Just Transition Plan.

Our natural capital and services it supports

Natural capital is a term for the habitats and ecosystems that provide us with social, environmental, and economic benefits. Scotland has a wide range of these habitats and ecosystems, each of which makes a unique contribution to the wellbeing of those who live and work in Scotland.

This natural capital is central to the wellbeing and prosperity of the entire nation. Protecting and enhancing these assets is vital, not only for our current quality of life but for the sustainability of future generations.

Ecosystem services are the direct and indirect services (in the form of security, goods and materials, health, and wellbeing) that our natural environment provides for our wellbeing and quality of life. The land-based benefits from nature are typically grouped into four broad categories:

• provisioning – physical things we can take from the environment such as food, water and timber
• regulating – ensuring we have an environment fit to live in, through services like natural flood protection and air filtration
• cultural – the benefits we get from the environment that are perceived by us, such as aesthetic beauty and recreational benefits
• supporting - the processes that ensure that ecosystems are healthy and can continue to supply the benefits above in the long term, for example pollination of crops and wild plants or the creation of healthy soil

Land is part of the solution, but it is also at risk

Climate change is already altering the biophysical characteristics of land, affecting its capacity to support diverse land uses and deliver essential ecosystem services such as food and fibre provision, as well as climate and water regulation (IPCC, Special Report on Climate Change and Land, 2019; IPCC, Sixth Assessment Report, 2022).

In Scotland, the climate has changed significantly since the 1960s (Rivington and Jabloun, Climate Trends and Future Projections in Scotland, 2022). Precipitation has increased - particularly during winter - though with considerable spatial and temporal variability. Temperatures in February and March have risen the most - by up to 2°C - while other months have seen an average increase of around 1°C. While land use can play a key role in mitigating climate change, the impacts of climate change, such as increased flooding and heightened drought risk, are already affecting Scotland’s land-based sectors.

Future projections suggest more frequent and prolonged dry spells, alongside more intense rainfall events, and a more volatile climate overall with increased variation in conditions each year. Recognising these trends is crucial, as a more variable and rapidly changing climate poses growing risks to land. These risks could disrupt land use patterns and undermine efforts related to food production, biodiversity conservation and emissions reduction.

As well as this the UK National Ecosystem Assessment highlights that since the 1950s, changes in Scotland’s natural environment have led to a decline in the overall benefits derived from nature. The 2023 State of Nature report for Scotland further emphasised this trend, noting that “the ability of Scotland’s environment to provide benefits to people - such as mitigating extreme weather impacts or filtering air and water pollution - has declined, with measurable deterioration dating back to 1950.” The report identifies land use as a critical lever for reversing this decline and restoring natural capital.

Key Areas of Land Use in Scotland

In this section we set out our understanding of the key areas of current and ongoing need / impact on land and, therefore, people and communities.

Scotland’s land as a whole

In order to provide some broad context for this it is helpful to start with a short summary of key physical characteristics of Scotland’s land.

Scotland is approximately 8 million hectares in size; once you exclude bodies of water this reduces the land area to approximately 7.8 million hectares. Rural areas constitute 98% of Scotland’s landmass and 17% of its population. Scotland has a total of 790 islands of which 93 are currently inhabited.

Agricultural land

Agriculture is the dominant land use in Scotland, covering approximately 5.16 million hectares, or 66% of the total land area. However, 52% of this is classified as rough grazing, which has limited agricultural productivity. Around 70% of agricultural land - approximately 3.74 million hectares - is claimed under the Basic Payment Scheme (BPS) and Greening support mechanisms.

Breakdown of agricultural land types:

• arable agriculture (8% of total land area): land suitable for a wide range of crops
• improved grassland (18%): land restricted to grass production due to factors such as slope or soil quality
• mixed agriculture (20%): land capable of supporting a moderate range of crops, including cereals (mainly barley), forage crops and grass
• rough grazing (51%): with severe limitations that prevent mechanical improvement

Forestry

Scotland’s forests and woodlands now span over 1.5 million hectares. Approximately one-third is publicly owned as part of the National Forest Estate, while over 1 million hectares are privately owned. These forests encompass a diverse range of woodland types and species - from the highly productive forests of Galloway and Tay Forest Parks to urban woodlands, mixed highland estates, Atlantic oakwoods in Argyll, and Caledonian pinewoods in the Highlands.

Peatland

Scotland is among Europe’s richest countries in peat resources, with around 2 million hectares of peatland storing an estimated 1.6 billion tonnes of carbon. The four main peatland habitat types are:

• blanket bog: supports rare and threatened wildlife, including internationally significant bird populations
• raised bogs: found mainly in lowland areas, these domed peatlands can grow over 10 metres in height
• fens: vary in size from small patches to extensive wetland mosaics
• bog woodland: among Scotland’s rarest habitats, often unmanaged and representing some of the most ‘natural’ native woods

Nature and Biodiversity

The Scottish Biodiversity Strategy to 2045 highlights the growing evidence of a biodiversity crisis. The natural environment has been significantly degraded, with ongoing declines across much of the land. However, Scotland remains a UK stronghold for many species associated with farmland and upland habitats, particularly where wildlife-friendly farming practices are in place.

Protected Areas cover 18% of Scotland’s land area and include:

• Special Protection Areas and Special Areas of Conservation (European sites)
• Sites of Special Scientific Interest
• Ramsar sites (wetlands of international importance)
• National Nature Reserves

Despite this only 65% of natural features on protected sites are in favourable condition, with a further 11% classed as unfavourable but recovering.

Scotland is committed to effectively conserving and managing 30% of land by 2030 with Other Effective areas-based Conservation Measures making up the additional 990,000 hectares needed. These 30 by 30 sites are to be better connected together and integrated into the wider landscape through Nature Networks.

Rural Housing

Access to affordable housing remains a persistent challenge in rural Scotland, closely linked to broader issues such as workforce recruitment and retention in rural and island communities. Between 2021/22 and 2022/23, residential property prices rose across all areas, with rural small towns experiencing the highest increase at 13%. The average rural property price was £271,436 compared to £202,588 in urban areas.

From 2011 to 2021, new housing completions increased in mainly rural areas but declined in rural and island areas. In 2021:

• urban with substantial rural areas: over 8,500 completions
• mainly rural areas: around 6,000 completions
• islands and rural areas: fewer than 500 completions

A report by Scotland’s Rural College found that second home ownership is a key driver of rural house price inflation. Over 51% of residential transactions in island and rural areas were cash sales, compared to 27% in larger cities.

While responding to this challenge does not necessarily require significant land use change, it is, of course, important to ensure that any consideration of our current and future balance of land use factors in the need for housing.

Renewable energy

The transition to renewable energy is expected to place increasing demands on land. In 2022, renewable technologies generated the equivalent of 113% of Scotland’s electricity consumption - a 26% increase from 2021. The majority of this generation (56%) occurred in mainly rural areas, where growth is also the fastest.

Building a Baseline for Future Land Use

In order to further explore the achievement of Scotland’s national targets and ambitions, it is necessary to develop a clear and broadly agreed understanding of land at a national scale.

Through the use of existing datasets from 2021 (Scotland Land Cover maps and Land Classification for Agriculture) Scottish Government analysts have been able to identify the current hectarage and distribution of land cover across Scotland using the land cover categorisations taken by the UK Government in its consultation on the Land Use Framework for England.

We can also seek to present information about land use across Scotland. However, at the national scale, this information is sector-specific and does not reflect the integrated uses happening on the ground. For example, this map shows different types of agricultural land but would exclude agroforestry.

Establishing a clear understanding of current land use provides a vital baseline from which we can begin to explore future targets and ambitions. Understanding how these ambitions interact - and their combined impact - will be essential in identifying whether, and how, land use and management practices need to evolve to meet our collective needs.

Q1. Do you find Map Figure 1 to be a helpful representation of current land cover?

Yes

No

Q2. How can we most effectively represent housing and renewable energy alongside current land cover maps?

Q3. What sort of information about current land use would you find useful? (and how would you use it?)

Land use moving forward

Each of these key areas brings with them their own set of targets and ambitions.

Please note that these commitments are subject to change and reflect the point in time of publication.

Vision for Agriculture - Scotland to become a global leader in sustainable and regenerative agriculture

Scotland will have a support framework that delivers high quality food production, climate mitigation and adaptation, and nature restoration to become a world leader in sustainable and regenerative agriculture.

Forestry

Expanding the area of forests and woodlands by circa 18,000 hectares per annum (from 24/25) seeking an increase in forestry cover from 19% of Scotland’s land to 21% by 2032.

National Peatland Plan

Restore 250,000 hectares of peatlands by 2030 to return them to their natural functions. Enabled through 20,000 ha of peatland restoration per year.

Scottish Biodiversity Strategy delivery

Approximately 990,000 additional hectares managed for nature, through a combination of Other Effective Area-Based Conservation Measures (OECMs) and formal designations by 2030.

Residential and industrial construction

Delivering our ambition for 110,000 affordable homes by 2032, 10% of which will be in rural and island communities.

Renewable energy targets

We have set an ambition to increase onshore wind capacity from just over 10 GW currently to 20 GW by 2030.

These commitments also bring with them a range of associated infrastructure needs. For example, housing developments require roads; renewable energy generation depends on onshore transmission and storage infrastructure (such as batteries); and the production and movement of food and timber need reliable transport networks.

In addition, several external factors influence land use. These include:

• global events, which heighten the importance of food security at a national and international level
• market forces, which can affect agricultural and timber production both broadly and locally
• changes in land ownership, which may alter how land is used within specific areas
• indirect pressures, such as the demand for open market housing, which also intensify competition for land - for instance, the Minimum All-Tenure Housing Land Requirement outlined in National Planning Framework 4 promotes a proactive, plan-led approach to identifying land for housing in appropriate locations

As Scotland moves toward a net zero, nature-positive economy by 2045, it will become increasingly important to understand how these diverse needs and ambitions can be balanced within the country’s finite land bank. Throughout this transition, we must continue to acknowledge the varied opportunities, challenges, and pressures faced by those who own and manage Scotland’s land - and uphold our commitment to delivering a Just Transition.

Q4. Do you agree that these are the key areas that need to be delivered by Scotland’s land?

Yes

No

Q5. Are there any important land uses that you feel are missing or underrepresented in this list?

Understanding the future impact, benefits, opportunities, and trade-offs

As highlighted above, understanding current land use patterns across Scotland can also open the door to a broader conversation about the future of land in Scotland and how we can work together to shape it.

Using this baseline information and exploring the opportunities in combining this with, for example, Scottish Forestry’s Native Woodland Targets Map as well other datasets could provide valuable insight into how these multiple demands can be met.

Whilst we do not expect to conclude this conversation prior to the publication of LUS4, it will form part of the long-term ambition for the LUS. This consultation provides us with the opportunity to signal that intention and begin the discussion.

Q6. How do you think data and mapping can evolve to better support our understanding of future land use and national ambitions—including the impacts, benefits, opportunities and trade-offs of change?

Q7. What tools, data, or approaches would help improve this understanding over time?