Scotland National Strategy for Economic Transformation: evidence paper

This Evidence Paper presents evidence on the structure and performance of Scotland’s economy, and identifies areas where the new National Strategy for Economic Transformation must take action to deliver transformational improvements to Scotland’s economic performance.

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1. GDP Monthly Estimate: November 2021 - (

2. See Annex 1.1 to 1.3 for definition of these sectors

3. Labour Market Statistics for young people (16-24 years): Scotland and UK – July 2020 to June 2021 - (

4. The difference between the employment rates of Equality Act disabled and not Equality Act disabled people.

5. 'Minority ethnic' includes all categories outside the white population and 'White includes 'White Polish' and 'White Gypsy' who also suffer disadvantage.

6. The Calculation | Living Wage Foundation

7. See Figure 2.4.3 for sectors making up these broad industry groups

8. Richmond & Turnbull (2015), Scotland's Productivity Performance: latest data and insights. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary 39(2) pp. 77-90

9. Micro and small business account for 98% of Scotland's private sector business base) and 43% of employment

10. So you want to level up?, Paul Swinney, June 2021

11. The innovation active definition includes any of the following activities, if they occurred during the survey period:

12. Management practices and innovation, Great Britain - Office for National Statistics (

13. Business Finland: World Class Ecosystems and the Competitive Business Environment

14. EY UK Attractiveness Survey, 2021

15. Scotland's Inward Investment Plan: Analytical Methodology Note (

16. Health & Life Sciences, High Value (advanced) Manufacturing, Digital, Low Carbon Transition

17. Digital Economy Business Survey 2021: findings - (

18. Interactive report - Ofcom

19. Note that this data is accurate to the end of 2019. Since then, Full Fibre coverage in residential premises in Scotland has improved from 10% to 20% (as of Spring 2021)

20. Do patent rights matter? 40 years of innovation, complexity and productivity - ScienceDirect

21. Scotland's Digital Maturity Index 2021 (

22. Scotland's Big Mo: Industrial Strategy, Inclusive Growth and the Future of Mobility, SCDI's Connectivity Commission, June 2018

23. Transport's role in sustaining UK's Productivity and Competitiveness: The Case for Action, Sir Rod Eddington 2008

24. The Poverty Alliance Poverty and Transport Event, February 2019

25. Transporting Scotland's Trade, Transport Scotland, 2019

26. Agglomeration Economies and Transport Investment, Daniel J Graham, 2007, International Transport Forum, OECD

27. Scottish Transport Statistics 2020. Chapter 8: Air Transport

28. ONS Travel Trends 2019

29. Transporting Scotland's Trade - 2020 edition

30. Excluding river ferries

31. For a number of industries the data is suppressed because of low levels of data reliability due to very small sample sizes. Across most of these industries the numbers will generally be very low)

32. For a number of industries data are suppressed because of small sample sizes).

33. Gender Pay Gap Action Plan - Measurement Framework (

34. The disability pay gap represents the difference between average hourly pay of disabled and non-disabled people, as a percentage of non-disabled people's pay.

35. The ethnicity pay gap represents the difference between average hourly pay of minority ethnic workers and white workers, as a percentage of white workers' pay.

36. Disabled people in the labour market in Scotland - (

37. "Minority Ethnic" includes all categories outside of the white population. "White" includes "Polish" and "Gypsy Traveller" who also suffer disadvantage.



40. Based on Regional range and coefficient of variation between International Territorial Level (ITL) 3 regions

41. Note, GDP per capita measure is distorted to some extent by commuters. For example, city regions like Edinburgh benefit from a large number of workers commuting to work in the city and contributing to its GDP, however wages and income go where workers reside.

42. BVG (2021). UK and Scottish content baseline and roadmap: A report for the Scottish Offshore Wind Energy Council

43. This assumes that an annual UK market size in 2030 of 4GW; a Scottish market share in 2030 of 40%; percentage floating in Scottish projects of 25%; and, percentage floating in non-Scottish UK projects of 5%.

44. Scottish hydrogen: assessment report - (



47. International Maritime Organisation



50. HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics data only includes port information for UK exports to non-EU countries up until the end of the transition period on 31st December 2020, as the data is based on customs declarations. From 1st January 2021, port data will also be available for UK to EU exports.

51. A detailed illustration and definition of the UK NUTS classification for Scotland can be found here nuts-map-UK.pdf ( The regions are defined as follows: South Western – East Dunbartonshire, West Dunbartonshire, Helensburgh & Lomond, Dumfries & Galloway, East Ayrshire and North Ayrshire mainland, Glasgow City, Inverclyde, East Renfrewshire and Renfrewshire, North Lanarkshire, South Ayrshire, South Lanarkshire; North Eastern – Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire; Eastern - Angus and Dundee City, Clackmannanshire and Fife, East Lothian and Midlothian, Scottish Borders, Edinburgh City, Falkirk, Perth & Kinross and Stirling, West Lothian; Highlands and Islands - Caithness & Sutherland and Ross & Cromarty, Inverness & Nairn and Moray, Badenoch & Strathspey, Lochaber, Skye & Lochalsh, Arran & Cumbrae and Argyll & Bute, Eilean Siar (Western Isles), Orkney Islands, Shetland Islands.

52. ONS International trade in services by subnational areas of the UK: 2018

53. Scottish City Deals regions include Aberdeen, Edinburgh and South East Scotland, and Glasgow

54. Due to volatility in the annual figure this is the 2018-2020 three year rolling average.

55. Global Entrepreneurship Monitor. Ireland is not included in chart – 2020 data not yet published.

56. Small Business Survey Scotland. Defined as being controlled by a single woman or having a management team of which a majority were women. Difference with UK is not statistically significant.

57. The ScaleUp Annual Review 2021, the ScaleUp Institute, 2021

58. High Growth Small Businesses, the Octopus Group, 2019

59. From the Cabinet of Curiosities: The misdirection of research and policy debates on small firm growth (

60. Firms growing their employment numbers and/or turnover by more than 20% a year over a period of three years, with at least 10 employees at the start of the period

61. Druid21: When Does Entrepreneurship Contribute to Productivity Growth? Experiment Capacity and the Entrepreneurship–Productivity Relationship

62. Document details | Reading Room for Scottish Enterpise (


64. Spigel (2017) The Relational Organization of Entrepreneurial Ecosystems. 41(1): 49-72 DOI: 10.1111/etap.12167

65. Scottish technology ecosystem: review - (

66. See Annex 1.1 to 1.3 for definition of these sectors

67. Scotland's Labour Market: People, Places and Regions – background tables and charts - ( (Table 1.24A)

68. National Indicator Performance | National Performance Framework Skill Profiles of the population

69. BEIS (2015) 'UK Skills and Productivity in International Context'.

70. 1 OECD (2017), 'Getting Skills Right: United Kingdom

71. Business models, innovation and employees' experiences in the workplace: challenges for the post-Covid-19 economy Findlay, P., Lindsay, C. & Roy, G., 22 Jan 2021, Productivity and the Pandemic: Challenges and Insights from Covid- 19. McCann, P. & Vorley, T. (eds.). 1 ed. Cheltenham, p. 132-146 14 p

72. Scottish Employer Skills Survey 2020 - (

73. Monetary Policy Report - August 2021 | Bank of England

74. BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 40 - (

75. Until April 2010, state pension age (SPA) was 65 for men and 60 for women. After this point, SPA was increased gradually for women each year until it reached age 65 in 2018. SPA is scheduled to increase further for both men and women to age 67 by 2028.

76. Projected Population of Scotland 2018-based, p.13

77. Skills matter for Scotland –

78. Migration - Foreign-born population - OECD Data

79. Migration Statistics Quarterly Summary for Scotland, February 2021 (

80. A NINo is needed to work in the UK or to claim benefits, and can be used as measure of gross additions to the workforce due to in-migration.

81. Other, includes - no reason given, not started looking – doesn't want or need to work

82. Scottish Employer Skills Survey 2020 - (

83. Article: What is skills mismatch and why should we care? (

84. Analysis of the UK labour market - estimates of skills mismatch using measures of over and under education - Office for National Statistics (

85. Skills mismatch in Europe (

86. The modelling of emissions uses the Scottish TIMES model, which captures the main characteristics of the energy system to understand the strategic choices that are required to decarbonise the economy.

87. In the last three years

88. More detailed modelling assumptions for each of the shocks modelled in the three scenarios are provided in Annex 2.

89. This is broadly in line with the historical average growth rate of the Scottish economy, although it is faster than rate of growth seen between the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic.

90. For more background on the Scottish Government CGE model see Computable General Equilibrium modelling: introduction - (

91. These key sources of uncertainty are not explicitly captured in the model, while as with all modelling, unforeseen changes in other structural forces such as demographics and automation could also have important impacts.

92. World Bank Data

93. The GCI measures the drivers of Total Factor Productivity (TPF) and is the product of an aggregation of 103 individual indicators, split into 12 pillars: Institutions; Infrastructure; ICT adoption; Macroeconomic stability; Health; Skills; Product market; Labour market; Financial system; Market size; Business dynamism; and Innovation capability.

94. WEF_TheGlobalCompetitivenessReport2019.pdf (, xiii.

95. WEF_Forum_IncGrwth_2017.pdf (, viii.

96. Economic-Context-and-Policy-Approaches-in-Small-Advanced-Economies.pdf, 3.

97. Modelling the long-run economic impact of leaving the European Union – ScienceDirect Distance, trade, and income — The 1967 to 1975 closing of the Suez canal as a natural experiment - ScienceDirect

98. Estimating the economic impact of FDI to support DIT's promotion strategy: analytical report - GOV.UK (

99. Impacts of minimum wages: review of the international evidence - GOV.UK (



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