Meeting Scotland's workforce needs for a transition to Net Zero – the role of migration and the impact of demographic challenges.
This report by the independent Expert Advisory Group on Migration and Population analyses the role of migration and demographic changes within the context of broader objectives for a Net Zero economy, and sets out potential lessons and recommendations.
Footnotes
1 Net Zero Strategy: Build Back Greener - GOV.UK
3 The UK's Modern Industrial Strategy
4 For example, the Industrial Strategy notes that only 9 per cent of secondary vocational learners are trained in engineering, manufacturing, and construction, versus an OECD average of 32 per cent. UK employers also invest less than half the EU average on workforce training and have not proportionately increased their spend on training since 2015. Even in Germany, where green skills have been integrated into its renowned vocational education system, doubling its green jobs since 2019, the country is still experiencing workforce shortages.
5 According to the Engineering Construction Industry Training Board (ECITB) 2021 census for the UK oil and gas sector, only 12% of workers are under 30, 54% are aged 30 to 49, and 35% are aged 50 or above (ECITB 2021). Within the wider energy and utilities workforce 17% are expected to retire before 2030 Energy-Utilities-Workforce-Demand-Estimates-2024-30-Summary-v5_Cover-added.pdf
6 This is the UK’s goal for 95 percent of its energy to be from low carbon sources by 2030. See: Make Britain a Clean Energy Superpower - GOV.UK
7 International Workers are Needed for the “Green” Industrial Revolution: Reflections from the All-Energy UK Conference | Center For Global Development. Also see written submissions to the ESNZ Inquiry from RenewableUK, the wind association, The National Grid, ScottishPower, SSE, and Siemans.
8 The Temporary Shortage List is being introduced to replace the Immigration Salary List, which will be phased out by the end of 2026. It is envisaged as a time limited intervention to encourage a domestic pipeline of talent, with inclusion on the list tied to requirements for sectors to introduce training and apprenticeship programmes. Those allowed entry via this route will not be allowed to bring dependents and will be issued with temporary visas only with very restricted options for transfer to longer-term routes.
9 All figures are based on Table UV204 - Country of birth. Geographies - Scottish Parliamentary Region: North East for North East as a whole, and for the remainder of the region excluding the two cities; Local Authority: Dundee City and Aberdeen City for the two cities (https://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/)
10 This approach involves a mix of quantitative analysis and qualitative stakeholder feedback (UKERC EDC: Publications)
11 This analysis of regions in Scotland is based on the 2020 Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics (NUTS), which have subsequently changed
12 These figures cited by PwC are derived from estimates originally presented in a National Grid (2020) report.
13 See for example Mehta, A. (2024) How a skills gap threatens to blow UK’s energy transition off course | Reuters
14 A study by Jackman and Moore (2021) examine the wage premium in a small developing economy, namely Barbados. Over the period 2004 to 2014 they find that individuals in green industries earn about 7% more than those in non-green industries.
15 Some local commentators have warned that workers may face pay cuts when moving from oil and gas roles to green jobs, which could discourage career transitions. Merson, A. (2023). Job ‘pay cut’ warning in switch from oil and gas to renewables Press and Journal
16 The locational Gini coefficient measures how unevenly an industry, activity, or group of workers is distributed across spatial areas.
17 In its October 2023 submission to the UK House of Commons Energy Security and Net Zero Committee, the Center for Global Development warned that immediate labour shortages pose a risk to achieving net zero targets, making a strong case for targeted labour migration. The submission identified six occupations currently experiencing shortages, with two (welding and roofing) particularly dependent on international recruitment. Despite a marked increase in welding apprenticeships, 58 per cent of new entrants into the occupation still came through international visas, highlighting the persistence of domestic supply constraints.
18 The rises in ISC are from £364 to £480 per year for small sponsors, and from £1,000 to £1,320 for large sponsors. There is also a proposed extension of the settlement period from 5 to 10 years which doubles the total ISC paid over the period.
19 The CER defines green jobs using a broad task-based approach rather than an occupational measure (see Chapter 2) in which workers spend at least one-third of their time on environmentally focused tasks.
20 The response cites research focusing on the Highlands and Islands and green energy projects and estimates a peak temporary increase of 16,250 workers by 2027, with a long-term increase of 12,750 workers by 2040 (Highlands and Islands Enterprise 2025). The existing regional construction workforce, it is suggested, will not be able to meet this demand and so without nuanced immigration policy carbon reduction targets will be missed.
22 The training complements the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme that trains Pacific Island workers in vocational skills to address labour shortages in the country and provide them with technical skills for the workplace and to take home.
23 Migration Partnership Facility (MPF), (2024), “(E)Co-development for innovation and employment in green and circular economy between Andalusia and Morocco (MOVE_GREEN)”.
24 Equinor (2025), Written Evidence Submitted by Equinor UK Ltd: committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/136164/pdf/ (last accessed November 2025); Institution of Mechanical Engineers (2025), Written Evidence Submitted by the Institution of Mechanical Engineers: committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/134165/pdf/ (last accessed November 2025).
25 There is also some precedence for this in the UK. Immigration has been a major contributor to the stock of skills and labour in the construction sector for decades, with Polish and Romanian builders dominating the installation of external wall insulation prior to Brexit. In the 1990s, UK Power Networks partnered with City and Guild and Apex Training to train workers in Harare, Zimbabwe, to British standards. Workers then moved to the UK through the then Skills Visa, often staying several decades and contributing to grid development as electricians.
26 The programme was initially launched by the Indian Government to train solar technicians to support India’s growing solar energy sector. It only later cooperated with Germany to leverage training models and secure employment opportunities abroad for its graduates.
27 While we refer to rural region, this is also to acknowledge that rural places are heterogeneous, multiple, dynamic and constructed and any discussion around ‘rural’ or ‘rurality’ must be contextualized and appropriately defined (see Vuin and Atterton, 2023, for further discussion around ‘rurality’),
28 While there has been a long-standing focus on rural youth outmigration, existing research also provides evidence on diverse forms of mobility among this group, including staying, returning following graduation or to start family (EAG 2025).
29 For more insight into this initiative see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8flcjahexdU
30 For example, setting up Great British Energy in Aberdeen, a publicly owned company which will drive the clean energy transition; establishing the skills passports, in collaboration with the Scottish Government, to help people get into the clean energy workforce by showing their relevant skills; and committing to the Acorn carbon capture and storage project in Aberdeenshire.
31 Clean energy jobs boom to bring thousands of new jobs - GOV.UK
32 The UK's Modern Industrial Strategy
33 Invest 2035: the UK's modern industrial strategy - GOV.UK
34 Clean energy jobs boom to bring thousands of new jobs - GOV.UK
35 Pilot to support oil and gas workers in the North East - gov.scot
36 Measuring and Evaluating Success in the Scottish Just Transition – Just Transition Commission
37 Skills for green jobs: 2018 update
38 Measuring and Evaluating Success in the Scottish Just Transition – Just Transition Commission
39 Ibid.
Contact
Email: population@gov.scot