Meeting Scotland's workforce needs for a transition to Net Zero – the role of migration and the impact of demographic challenges.

1. Introduction

This report was commissioned in July 2025 with the overarching aim to better understand the potential interface between the Scottish Government’s priorities around population and migration and its targets to deliver a Net Zero economy. The Independent Expert Advisory Group on Migration and Population was asked to consider:

• the impact of the decline in oil and gas on the prospects for a smooth transition to clean energy, in particular with regards to the opportunities for and barriers to transfer of the existing labour force
• the potential role of migration and the immigration system in attracting workers (especially young skilled migrants) to fill roles which support the delivery of a Net Zero economy
• the barriers and challenges to successfully integrating mobile workers including international migrants and their families into Scotland, as part of the energy transition.

In compiling the report the group was asked to use the Scottish Parliamentary Region North East Scotland as a focus for more detailed analysis and to explore comparative case studies and examples which might inform policy and practice in meeting the needs and challenges outlined above.

1.1. The transition to net zero and its workforce challenges

The transition to net zero is a strategically significant policy priority for both the UK and Scottish Governments and stretching targets have been set. The UK Government has an agreed target to reach Net Zero by 2050,^[1] whilst the Scottish Government remains pledged to reach Net Zero by 2045.^[2] Across Europe and many other parts of the globe, countries are undertaking transitions towards net zero economies, creating potential for both collaboration and competition with regard to technological innovation, labour supply and natural resources.

A strong workforce with the necessary skills to support the evolving stages of the energy transition is essential for reaching net zero commitments. Scotland, like other parts of the UK and Europe, faces skill shortages as well as high inactivity rates and significant numbers of young people who are not in employment, education or training. These are all constraining factors to Scotland’s ambitions for a Just Transition to a green, low-carbon economy. The three main routes to overcoming these constraints and meeting workforce needs are:

• Ensuring that young people leaving education are equipped with the right skills for the green transition.
• Promoting sectoral mobility from ‘brown’ to ‘green’ jobs, via re- and upskilling where necessary.
• Supporting the geographical mobility of labour, both internally and internationally as required.

None of these routes is likely to be sufficient alone, and some will be more able to produce a quick and flexible response than others.

The UK’s Industrial Strategy recognises that “changes to the skills system will take time to come to fruition”, and that in the meantime there will be a domestic shortfall.^[3] Investments in training, even where sufficient, will take time to pay off and current training infrastructure is likely to be hard to scale up.^[4] Sourcing domestic workers could also be challenging. A significant proportion of the existing energy workforce falls within the mid- to late-career age brackets.^[5] The sector is further marked by persistent gender imbalances and a spatial concentration in areas endowed with the relevant natural resources. Green jobs by contrast are often more spatially diffuse, meaning workforce requirements are not necessarily in the same areas as the currently existing workforce.

To deliver on Mission 2030,^[6] even with increased investment in domestic upskilling, retraining, and apprenticeships, there is a workforce gap. It is widely accepted within the sector that some measure of skilled labour mobility, including both internal and international migration, will be needed in the interim to supplement the domestic workforce.^[7] And yet, there has been little detailed discussion of how to ensure that mobile labour is adequately accommodated and integrated into policy and planning in order to achieve just and desirable outcomes for mobile and local workers and host communities (Just Transition Commission, 2025).

There is also a notable lack of coordination between immigration, workforce development, climate and energy policies. The UK Government’s 2025 Immigration White Paper, for example, is particularly problematic for the green transition because it makes it more difficult for UK employers to recruit internationally, particularly under the Skilled Worker visa route. The Temporary Shortage List (TSL) is being developed via a 2-stage review process led by the Migration Advisory Committee. Stage 1 identified occupations that warrant further assessment, rather than establishing a final list, and did not confer priority status on the energy sector (Migration Advisory Committee, 2025). Final recommendations on inclusion and any sectoral prioritisation will be determined in Stage 2, which may provide scope for influence.

Many of the specific occupations listed (for example welders, engineers, technicians) are relevant to more than one sector or industry and it is unclear how competing needs for similar job roles across sectors or geographical areas will be managed under this route. Considerable uncertainty persists also over how the provisions of the Temporary Shortage List will be implemented in immigration law - the stated policy intentions are strongly focused on a short-term intervention.^[8] This lack of clarity as well as the explicit designation of allowances under this measure as ‘temporary’ may deter both employers and potential employees from decision making, within what is an urgent time frame (Springford, 2025).

The lack of joined up thinking between immigration policy and green transition goals presents a particular challenge for Scotland and other parts of the UK because immigration remains a reserved power of the UK Government, and so despite being an important lever that could support a just transition, its potential at present remains limited.

There is then an urgent need for better co-ordination and coherence both across policy areas and between levels of government, including UK government, devolved administrations and local authorities. The challenges faced require a range of policy levers and approaches, none of which can be affected successfully in isolation. Nonetheless, Scotland must meet this challenge. We therefore explore the policy levers, influence and resources that Scottish Government, local authorities and other regional actors can bring to bear in filling labour and skills needs for a just transition in ways which complement wider population concerns wherever possible.

1.2. The interface with demographic challenges and Scotland’s population strategy

Meeting the challenges of demographic change is a key priority for Scottish Government. It is one which the EAG Migration and Population has written on extensively in previous reports (EAG, 2022; 2025a and 2025b). Achieving population balance, both geographic and demographic, and making it possible for people and communities in Scotland to live well are key principles of the Scottish Governments Population Strategy (2021) and subsequent Action Plan to Address Depopulation (2024). The Ministerial Population Taskforce and Population Programme Board are established to ensure that population concerns cut across policy areas and engage different levels of government and other stakeholders.

Migration, both international and from other parts of the UK, has a role to play in meeting Scotland’s demographic needs. Previous reports of the EAG on Migration and Population have made a consistent case that this role should be viewed as one of strategic mitigation (EAG, 2021). Whilst migration certainly does contribute to the size and balance of Scotland’s population, slowing demographic ageing and contributing to modest population increases at national level, it is unlikely that population decline at regional or local level can be reversed by means of migration or that patterns of ageing can be permanently changed. Nonetheless, the strategic mitigation role played by migration has helped Scotland, and regions or areas within Scotland, to maintain crucial services, meet skills gaps and sustain local industries. There is potential for this also to be the case with regard to the transition to Net Zero. If this is to be a Just Transition, however, the needs of mobile workers and families who may accompany them will need to be properly considered and addressed alongside those of other residents.

Consideration should also be given to the possibility of other mobilities resulting from the changing workforce needs of a green economy. If demand for labour in ‘brown’ energy jobs declines in areas where labour markets have been heavily dependent on oil and gas. This could also result in increased outmigration of working age population. Whilst the more diverse geographical spread of emerging green energy jobs may provide welcome opportunities for other areas, the prospect of future economic and demographic change in areas such as North East Scotland (Robert Gordon University, 2025) create challenges to be met by careful planning and strategic policy co-ordination.

1.3. A focus on North East Scotland

North East Scotland is a long-established operational hub of the UK’s gas and oil energy infrastructure. Energy production has been an important source of jobs and income, helping North East Scotland to reach levels of economic vibrancy not attained in many other parts of Scotland. The result is also a remarkably high concentration of workers employed within the offshore energy industry – one of the key components in Scotland’s planned transition to Net Zero. Whilst approximately 1 in 220 workers (0.5%) UK-wide are employed in offshore energy (this includes offshore wind and oil and gas), this rises to 1 in 30 (3.3%) in Scotland and 1 in 6 (16-17%) in North East Scotland and further still, to 1 in 4 (25%) once induced effects are accounted for (i.e., jobs supported by offshore workers spending) (Robert Gordon University, 2025). The region therefore presents both crucial opportunities and considerable challenges for the management of a successful and just transition to Net Zero, and particularly with regard to labour supply, mobility and the portability of skills between sectors.

The region combines large urban centres (Aberdeen and Dundee) with extensive rural areas characterised by many familiar population challenges including slow population growth. There is a trend towards population ageing across the region as well as sub-regional areas of population decline and more rapid ageing. Experiences of immigration and ethnic diversity also vary greatly. Census data from 2022 reveals that 12.14% of the region’s population was foreign born, higher than the Scottish average of 10.24%. However, much of this diversity is concentrated in Aberdeen City, where 21.06% of the population of was foreign born, and Dundee, where the proportion was 12.9%. For the remainder of the region excluding these two major cities, the proportion of foreign born residents was 6.76% at the time of the census.^[9] In common with other rural regions, parts of North East Scotland face challenges in the provision of housing, transport and public services which can contribute to difficulties in both attraction and retention of population.

A key policy question for the region, and one that resonates broadly at national level, is how to make North East Scotland an attractive place for workers and employers in the green economy, creating opportunities for new entrants to the green workforce, filling skills gaps at pace, and supporting the mobility and career progression of those currently employed in the brown sector.

1.4. Outline of the report

Chapter 2 begins with a discussion of the challenges faced in assessing workforce needs for a transition to Net Zero. We outline existing challenges relating to the definition of and predicted demand for ‘green jobs’ as well as skills shortages and competition for labour. These are then applied to a more focused consideration of the likely distribution of jobs and their match to existing skills profiles in Scotland generally and North East Scotland specifically. Chapter 3 examines the potential for growing a domestic workforce through retraining and transfer of existing workers as well as by training new entrants. Here we look in some detail at opportunities for and barriers to both routes including those created by comparative pay and working conditions and return to the challenges of spatial mismatch. Chapter 4 considers the prospects for international recruitment, including an analysis of the impacts of current and proposed immigration policies which remain reserved to UK Government. This chapter reviews some commonly proposed alternative policy options exploring the pros, cons and trade-offs which these may involve. We also discuss the issue of international competition for workers and the approaches taken by other countries to getting ahead of this, for example through bilateral partnerships and training agreements. Chapter 5 applies a more social lens to understand the challenges that rural areas in particular may face in accommodating and integrating the diverse needs of a workforce made up of mobile workers as well as retrained workers and new entrants from amongst existing resident populations. This analysis is situated in the context of wider population concerns and issues around attraction and retention including challenges linked to transport and public services. We conclude the report by examining a range of key considerations for policymakers and decision makers at different levels of government emphasising the urgent need for increased coherence both across policy areas and between levels of government.