Meeting Scotland's workforce needs for a transition to Net Zero – the role of migration and the impact of demographic challenges.

5. How to attract and retain the required workforce in the green economy of North East Scotland

We turn now to consider the more social aspects of workforce attraction and retention. These are necessarily shaped by considerations of place. Given the predominantly rural nature of large parts of North East Scotland – with a majority of its land being rural and a higher proportion of the population residing in rural areas compared to Scotland as a whole – we consider the particular challenges of attraction and retention in rural areas.^[27] The recently published ‘Regional Transformational Opportunities in the Highlands and Islands’ research report notes significant investment opportunities, including in many rural areas of North East Scotland. The report finds potential for large scale investment and significant job creation, both in temporary construction work and in longer term operational posts but also challenges relating to available workforce and skills as well as infrastructure to attract and retain new workers (Highlands and Islands Enterprise, 2025).

5.1. Demographic profile and mobility patterns within North East Scotland

The problem of depopulation in rural Scotland has been highlighted in earlier EAG reports (2021, 2022, and 2025). Many rural communities face demographic challenges as their populations shrink in size but also age due in significant part to the outmigration of younger residents.^[28] Overall, the population of North East Scotland has aged between 2011 and 2022, with the share of those aged 65 and over increasing from 16.4% to 20.3% - in line with trends observed for Scotland as a whole (from 16.8% to 20%). Between 2011 and 2022, the size of the population of North East Scotland increased for all ages above 55, while it decreased at ages 0 to 4, 15 to 30, and 40 to 50.

As well as population change linked to fertility, mortality and internal mobility, rural places in Scotland, including North East Scotland, are also sites of international migration. Fig 6 compares the Population of North East Scotland in 2011 (left side of the graph), to that in 2022 (right side of the graph) by age-group and country of birth (UK, EU, Other), to illustrate the contribution made by foreign born residents to overall patterns of population change and ageing.

In both census years, the foreign-born population contributed positively to the size of the working age population. There are, however, two main differences between the two census years. In 2011, the foreign-born population was predominantly from non-EU countries and had a younger profile, with the largest contribution in the age group 20 to 34. In 2022, the non-EU population had reduced in size, while the EU-born population had grown. Moreover, the largest numbers of foreign-born residents were aged 30 to 44, partly reflecting the longer-term settlement of migrants already present in 2011. It is clear that the foreign-born population has contributed not only to the moderate population increase observed in the region between the two censuses, but also to slowing down demographic ageing and particularly by increasing the size of the working age population.

As well as coming from a variety of different countries and regions of the world, international migration is also characterised by a variety of temporalities, including short-term and seasonal labour migration (Jentsch et al., 2007), and longer-term settlement (Flynn and Kay, 2017). Figure 7 illustrates the larger presence of more established migrants in North East Scotland in 2022 compared to 2011. The size of the foreign-born population who has been resident in the UK for more than 10 years doubled between the two censuses, while the numbers of newer arrivals (less than 2 years) remained more or less the same.

These complex mobilities raise important questions about how best to attract and retain local and incoming population (internal and international) and under what conditions (short-term vs long-term). Further, the issue of retention also raises questions about the attractiveness of place and whether both incoming and local workers are able to live in rural places because they want to live there (Pinilla and Sáez, 2021). These have been discussed at length in a variety of studies and previous reports of the EAG (2021, 2022, 2025) but not with a specific focus on the intersection between demographic concerns and the workforce needs of a transition to Net Zero.

5.2. Barriers and opportunities in attracting and retaining local and incoming workers for the green economy

Outmigration of young people impacts on rural populations both in terms of demographic balance and in relation to the availability of skills and labour, included those needed for the transition to a green economy. Patterns of outmigration amongst rural 17 to 21 year olds, whether temporary or longer term, are strongly linked with entering higher education and as such can be a positive part of young people's transition into adulthood (Alexander, 2025). The question arises however as to whether opportunities for training and entry into ‘green skills’ based careers could provide jobs in rural places for both those who prefer not to leave, and those who leave for study but wish to return. In their review of rural education in the Glenkens, Dumfries and Galloway, Fisher and Morrison highlight the importance of “a significant rebalancing of schooling that does not just focus on learning to leave” (2024: 13) and call for the development of place-based education in rural places to provide young people not only with skills but also opportunities and choices to pursue their lives and careers locally. Pathways for young people into local jobs and enterprise created through training opportunities, including local apprenticeships or dedicated training initiatives can offer meaningful incentives for local young residents to stay.

Across Scotland, a range of apprenticeship programmes provide both local and incoming young people with valuable work experience and training opportunities (see also Section 3.2). The Rural Skills apprenticeship programme already demonstrates how these can be developed both as local, community-lead initiatives and adapted to focus on particular workforce needs dovetailing with regional demographic concerns. Co-ordinating the development and focus of such educational pathways and apprenticeships to meet a growing demand for green skills in sectors contributing to the transition to Net Zero would have a double benefit.

Rural skills apprenticeships – a model for a green skills apprenticeship

‘Galloway Rural Skills’ was delivered by the Galloway Glens Landscape Partnership and funded by the National Lottery Heritage Fund Scotland between 2018-2023. This programme offered internships in ‘green’ jobs and work experience placements supporting conservation, restoration, and sustainable management in ecology, forestry and fisheries. The programme created 15 full-time, six-month paid roles over four years, hosted by a variety of local employers with 50% funding support. As a result, 9 of the 15 interns have continued to work within the sector in which they undertook their placement. ^[29]

Housing has been identified as a key challenge in meeting the skills and workforce needs that are vital to attracting transformational investment in rural areas of Scotland.

With a need for more workers, the region will need more housing to accommodate the workers and where relevant, their families. However, housing availability in the Highlands and Islands is already challenging and … private sector housing development tends to be concentrated in more urban or accessible rural parts of the region, due to factors such as higher construction costs, scarcity of appropriate land, and lack or required infrastructure. (Highlands and Islands Enterprise, 2025: 14).

Partnership work between Green Jobs employers and developers, potentially co-ordinated by local authorities and considered as part of the social impact assessments of tenders, could offer avenues to support the refurbishment of existing housing stock or appropriate newly built homes to provide homes for key workers and meet the recruitment needs of employers.

Current initiatives addressing shortage of housing stock in rural places in Scotland

The Smart Clachan model is an innovative model of housing development in rural Scotland. It refers to the traditional “clachan” (a small settlement or hamlet) but with modern, sustainable, community-led features aimed at offering affordable housing to the local population by providing affordable homes, often for rent, shared equity ownership, or plots for self-builders but also shared community spaces. The examples in Scotland include Comrie Croft and Uist.

Other initiatives include the Pamela Young Trust in Glenkens that focus on bringing empty homes back to use to local population, with particular focus on supporting young people and families accessing suitable housing.

Transport is also noted as a critical infrastructure concern and a vital ‘enabler’ to allow transformational investment (Highlands and Islands Enterprise, 2025). Transport within rural regions, including North East Scotland, is mainly dominated by privately owned cars, with limited provision of bus or rail services. Limited public transport opportunities pose significant challenges for commuting, further exacerbating the spatial challenges of matching jobs to workers discussed in section 3.4. While transport links are crucial, the low population density in rural regions presents challenges to the provision of commercially sustainable public transport services. Improving transport infrastructure in rural areas requires substantial financial subsidies, and may need a co-ordinated approach between public and private funds. Current initiatives to develop on-demand transport in North East Scotland, including A2B Dial a-Bus Service and M.Connect Bus Service in Morray can be a good starting point in development of public transport infrastructure supporting greater mobility within the region.

As noted earlier in our report, the transition to a low carbon economy offers opportunities to diversify the workforce. Programmes aiming to attract and retain the required workforce for the green economy should also consider the need for improved gender balance and diversity within that workforce and this requires consideration of the need for services supporting family life, in particular available and accessible childcare and education services. Current evidence on childcare provision in rural areas in Scotland (Scottish Government, 2021) highlights the lack of flexibility and availability of childcare, limiting parents' ability to take up or continue employment.

Initiatives to improve access to care services in rural Scotland:

The Single Care Model in Highlands is new model of delivering care services that is designed to address particular challenges in relation to recruitment and retention of staff to offer care services across the ages. Such model can serve as an example of good practice in addressing particular challenges in delivering care provision in rural and island communities to support working parents and carers within these regions.

5.3. Including mobile populations in a Just Transition at local community level

Returning to the start of our discussion it seems likely that the workforce required for the transition to Net Zero will need a combination of both longer- and shorter-term labour mobility, whether international or from elsewhere in Scotland or the UK, as well as newly trained and retrained workers from within the existing resident population. Deliberate interventions will be needed to support newcomers to orient themselves, make connections, and avoid social or workplace isolation and segregation and to maximise the benefits of increasing diversity to local communities.

The need to attract and actively recruit international migrants is often justified by labour shortages. With industries where the problem is of skills gaps rather than more generalised labour shortages, international migrant workers can be perceived as a necessary short-term measure (de Lima and Wright, 2009). Yet, immigration policies focused on control and reduction of net migration may fail properly to consider the mix of drivers that shape migration choices, and which in a situation of competition for labour make different countries and regions more or less attractive to potential mobile workers.

Existing evidence on labour migration to rural Scotland shows that drivers for immigration among labour migrants are not purely economic, but also depend on individual circumstances, and may include other factors like the desire to learn a language, study or improve the quality of life of individual family members (de Lima and Wright, 2009; Flynn and Kay, 2017). In addition, decisions regarding length of stay are frequently open-ended and dynamic (Pietka-Nykaza and McGhee, 2016). Understanding the varied motivations for and forms of mobility patterns (e.g. return, staying, outmigration) along with their fluid and open-ended character (e.g. long-term, short-term, seasonal) are important to ensure that appropriate interventions are developed to support all forms of mobility within an area or region.

Research on labour migration also shows that migration systems involve a diverse group of key actors. This includes labour market intermediaries, such as temporary staffing agencies, contractors, and recruitment agents (Findlay et al. 2012), as well as employers’ practices and preferences (McCollum and Findlay 2015). Taken together these actors play a significant part in shaping, enabling, or constraining migration (Cranston et al. 2017). As noted in section 4.1.3 there is a need for policy interventions which recognise the specific contexts and constraints within which green skilled migration may take place and how these impact on the diverse actors involved.

A joined-up approach to shaping the mobility of the workforce required for a transition to Net Zero should include this diverse set of actors as active participants. They have a crucial role to play not only for the development of recruitment strategies but also for advancing and implementing social inclusion policies and initiatives. The latter will need to be suited to a diverse mobile labour force, arriving from a variety of places of origin (including elsewhere in Scotland/UK) and with varied intentions and entitlements regarding length and conditions of stay.

As well as facing the same negative spiral effects of limited service accessibility in rural areas as the resident population (including housing, transport and education, and childcare), incoming populations, both internal and international, often face additional barriers that contribute to their social and economic exclusion. In rural areas with relatively few international migrants, dedicated services for these groups, are limited (Flynn and Kay, 2017) and wider public services may have little experience of supporting migrant service users (Jentsch et al., 2007; Kay and Price 2024).

Newer arrivals, especially those coming for more temporary periods of stay, may also have limited place-based social connections and thus limited access to the support systems provided through social and community networks (Pietka-Nykaza et al. 2025). This can be compounded if workforces are not well integrated and workers are clustered with specific migrant groups predominating in certain jobs or sectors. This was seen previously, where EU migration to rural Scotland often resulted in a high concentration of EU migrant workers in low-skilled and lower-paid rural employment (Jentsch et al., 2007).

Access to social networks and community relations plays an important role in enhancing quality of life in rural areas and building bridges and bonds between different parts of the population whether long-term resident, newly arrived, temporary or intending to remain. Efforts to retain and attract population to support a Just Transition, including the workforce needed for the green economy, must therefore also prioritise the strengthening and maintenance of social and community ties among diverse rural residents.

Such efforts should also ensure that rural communities are actively consulted and supported in building and maintaining relationships across different groups. The experience following the 2004 EU enlargement, when many rural communities across the UK faced challenges due to the rapid pace of change, manifesting in pressure on public services and increased community tensions, illustrates the need for meaningful local engagement to design targeted and effective support measures. In Scotland, the Just Transition principles underline the importance of broad and inclusive engagement to foster and sustain social consensus. The Just Transition Commission has accordingly been tasked with ensuring meaningful engagement with those most directly affected by the transition.

Experiences of exclusion from public spaces can result from lack of access to information on what is going on locally as well as from perceptions of the community place or activity as being “not for us” (Pietka-Nykaza and Baillot, 2022). Evidence on EU migrant’s experience in rural Scotland illustrates that lack of engagement in social activities with local communities is also linked to factors such as long or irregular working hours (de Lima and Wright, 2009). These experiences of spatial exclusion relate not only to immigration statutes or ethnicity, but also to other intersecting factors, such as gender and age, meaning that not only the incoming population but also local young residents may feel left out (Shucksmith and Brown, 2016). Addressing such barriers, requires planning, investment and active outreach community strategies to ensure that diverse groups are aware of and feel ‘welcome’ in dedicated local places.

Increased co-ordination and coherence is required as well as long-term coherent strategies for linking relevant stakeholders in renewable energy and other parts of the low carbon economy to those concerned with rural development, including the communities themselves. The current lack of joined up thinking presents a particular challenge for Scotland, not least because immigration remains a reserved power of the UK Government, and so despite being an important lever that could support a just transition, as discussed in Chapter 4, its potential at present remains limited. Nonetheless, Scottish authorities have considerable power to shape community development and support new approaches to diversity and social cohesion and these need to be part of the conversation about meeting workforce needs for a transition to Net Zero.