Meeting Scotland's workforce needs for a transition to Net Zero – the role of migration and the impact of demographic challenges.

Executive Summary

This report was commissioned in July 2025 to explore the intersection between Scotland’s population and migration priorities and its Net Zero targets. The Independent Expert Advisory Group on Migration and Population was asked to consider:

• The impact of the decline in oil and gas on workforce transition to clean energy.
• The role of migration and the immigration system in attracting skilled workers, particularly young migrants, to support Net Zero delivery.
• The barriers to integrating mobile workers, including international migrants and their families, into Scottish communities during the energy transition.

Throughout the report the Scottish Parliamentary Region North East Scotland is used as a focus for more detailed analysis.

The transition to net zero is a strategically significant policy priority for both the UK and Scottish Governments. Scotland has pledged to reach Net Zero by 2045, ahead of the UK’s 2050 target. A strong workforce with the necessary skills to support the evolving stages of the energy transition is essential for reaching net zero commitments. Yet Scotland faces skill shortages as well as high inactivity rates and significant numbers of young people who are not in employment, education or training.

Meeting the challenges of demographic change is another key priority for Scottish Government. Achieving population balance, both geographic and demographic, and making it possible for people and communities in Scotland to live well are key principles of the Scottish Government’s Population Strategy (2021) and Action Plan to Address Depopulation (2024). Immigration, both international and from other parts of the UK, has a role to play in meeting Scotland’s demographic needs. The strategic mitigation role played by migration has helped Scotland, and regions or areas within Scotland, to maintain crucial services, meet skills gaps and sustain local industries. There is potential for this also to be the case with regard to the transition to Net Zero, however, Scotland’s devolved powers limit its ability to shape immigration policy.

Together, these twin challenges — delivering Net Zero while managing demographic change — demand joined up policy responses. These responses must also take account of where the Scottish Government and local authorities have the power to make changes, ensuring that responsibilities are clearly defined and action is targeted at the right level of governance.

Key findings

Meeting workforce needs for the transition to Net Zero will require efforts to maximise opportunities to:

• Ensure that young people leaving education are equipped with the right skills for the green transition.
• Promote sectoral mobility from ‘brown’ to ‘green’ jobs.
• Support the geographical mobility of labour, both internally and internationally.

None of these routes is likely to be sufficient alone, and some will be more able to produce a quick and flexible response than others.

Forecasts (and definitions) of future green jobs vary considerably. UK projections range from 135,000 to 860,000 by 2030 (Climate Change Committee, 2023; UK Government, 2025). Scotland could see between 55,000 and 60,000 clean energy jobs by that date (UK Government, 2025). Other estimates using wider definitions, suggest much greater potential demand, but only a smaller proportion of these are likely to be new roles.

Retraining existing workers offers short term potential, as up to 90% of current energy workers have transferable skills (Offshore Energies UK, 2023). However, significant barriers remain, including:

• geographic mismatch between where fossil fuel jobs are declining and where new green jobs are emerging.
• need for retraining and certification and for clearer frameworks to meet these.
• potential reluctance to undergo retraining or consider relocation for work within the existing workforce.

The education pipeline also requires strengthening. Only 9% of UK vocational learners are trained in engineering or manufacturing compared to an OECD average of 32%, and UK employers invest less than half the EU average on workforce training and have not proportionately increased their spend on training since 2015 (OECD, 2023). Expanding apprenticeships in STEM and energy fields offers significant potential to build a domestic skills base, particularly if programmes are designed to be accessible to young people and linked directly to emerging clean energy sectors and other low carbon jobs (Skills Development Scotland, 2024). However, perceptions of green jobs as less secure, lower paid or offering fewer career development opportunities than other energy jobs risk discouraging uptake.

UK immigration policy is poorly aligned with Net Zero goals. Immigration is rarely considered as part of the skills strategy for the green transition. A range of proposals for alternative immigration policy approaches have been put forward in the existing literature. These are outlined in the report, and include:

• Lowering skills and/or salary thresholds either through a dedicated Green Skills Visa or through concessions within existing visa routes for roles critical to net zero
• Expanding or adapting the shortage list to include more climate-critical roles
• Establishing umbrella sponsorship bodies to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
• Introducing geographically targeted migration routes and visas.

However, Scotland’s devolved powers limit its ability to shape immigration policy. Adjacent approaches, less directly linked to immigration policies including bilateral training agreements and targeted recruitment partnerships, remain underexplored and might provide more fertile ground for intergovernmental discussion.

Social and integration challenges must be addressed in developing and supporting a diverse green skills workforce spread across Scotland’s rural as well as urban areas. Rural areas face difficulties in attracting and retaining workers due to limited housing, transport, and public services. Integration of international migrants and mobile workers requires attention to family needs, community cohesion, and equitable access to services. Without proactive planning, disparities between urban centres and rural regions could widen, undermining both demographic balance and the just transition.

Policy considerations

The following key considerations and options for government at multiple levels, as well as other stakeholders, are explored in greater detail in the main report.

1. Policies and interventions should aim to build a more inclusive, sustainable and diverse workforce. An inclusive workforce strategy should combine migration with sustained investment in upskilling and reskilling local workers, ensuring decent pay and conditions. Migration must be evidence-based, not a knee-jerk response to shortages, and intergovernmental consultation should underpin decisions.

2. Bilateral partnerships with other countries could expand the skills base. While policy powers lie with the UK government. Scotland can play a proactive role in proposing and shaping such agreements.

3. Greater coherence across immigration, climate, energy, and skills policy is urgently required. Current inconsistencies undermine workforce planning and investment. Developers and their supply chains need certainty around project pipelines in order to facilitate investment in workforce planning, development and training.

4. Intergovernmental co-ordination and joint working needs to be strengthened to support effective and strategic regional planning. A long-term, strategic approach should include climate and energy policymakers, devolved nations, national and regional training providers and agencies, trade unions, industry and community representatives. Moving away from a centralised approach would ensure skills strategies are targeted and beneficial to communities, supporting levelling up across Scotland.

5. Rural development must be linked to renewable energy strategies as part of a long-term coherent strategy. Place-based partnerships between communities, local authorities, and developers can channel renewable revenues into housing, transport, training, and services, tackling depopulation and sustaining inclusive growth.

6. Scotland’s leadership in the Just Transition movement provides an opportunity to innovate and build diverse, place-based workforce strategies. The Just Transition Commission’s monitoring framework offers a platform to evaluate success and strengthen Scotland’s international reputation.