Introduction

The prison population has been growing in recent years and exceeded 8,350 on several days in 2024 and early 2025 (reaching for example 8,379 on 4th March 2025).[1] This is approaching some of the highest levels seen.[2] The increased pressure presents challenges for the operation of and conditions within prisons.

Actions taken to address this include the emergency release of some short-term prisoners in 2024[3] and introduction of the Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Act 2025 which amended the release point for short-term prisoners. This legislation is expected to lead to a sustained reduction in the short-term prisoner population, compared to what it would have been without implementing the legislation.[4]

However, even when taking this into account, the latest projections[5] indicate it is likely that the overall prison population will increase between April 2025 and September 2025, driven by growth in the sentenced population whilst the remand population remains high.

While the recent rise in the prison population has attracted attention, pressure in the system was building prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. More generally, the prison population has not seen marked and sustained falls in the last 10-15 years despite overall decreases in the volume of recorded crime[6], criminal proceedings, convictions and custodial sentences.[7] This indicates more complex and long-term trends influence the prison population beneath headline figures and trends in overall criminal justice system statistics.

There are also indications that pressures on prisons may continue into the future. For example:

• there have been increases in the most serious court cases – for example, solemn indictments registered in 2023-24 were at the highest level in the last decade (and up 24% on 2022-23)[8]
• the backlog of outstanding court cases has decreased from its peak but remains at high levels. High levels of outstanding cases in the justice system is likely to lead to ongoing high levels of prison arrivals[9]

Purpose and approach of this paper

This occasional paper summarises long-term changes in and influences on the prison population to identify how the accumulation of incremental changes over many years affects the current position. It largely uses annual statistics from the Scottish Government Prison Population and Projections statistical collection, to provide a consistent comparison point for assessing longer-term trends. The latest Accredited Official Statistics available within this collection provide statistics on the prison population up to and including the 2023-24 financial year.

In this paper, the data usually drawn on from the prison population statistics is the average daily prison population. A Glossary is provided at the end of the paper which defines this and other key terms.

It should be noted that using the average daily population up to 2023-24 means that:

• fluctuations within particular financial years (e.g. seasonality) are not taken into account
• the acute rise in the population over 2024 and early 2025, as well as changes related to recent policy and legislation (e.g. amending the release point for short-term sentenced prisoners), are not taken into account in analysis

Unless otherwise stated, the findings outlined in this paper are drawn from the above Scottish Government collection of statistics on prisons. However, a range of other crime and justice statistics produced by the Scottish Government are also drawn upon to provide wider context. These are referenced where relevant for clarity. Findings from these sources generally draw on published reports or data tables.