Summary

The prison population has grown to challenging levels - often exceeding 8,300 in 2024 and early 2025. This paper has highlighted where the accumulation of incremental changes over the longer-term has influenced the current position by looking largely at changes in the period 2009-10 to 2023-24.

It has shown that the composition of the prison population has substantially changed, in addition to the population being elevated. For example, there are many more people in prison for the most serious violent and sexual crimes; the prison population is notably older than it was a decade or so ago; and there fewer entries and exits, with more people serving longer sentences. There are also pressures which have emerged in recent years following the COVID-19 pandemic, such as an elevated proportion of the prison population accounted for by those on remand.