3. Overview of Scottish Prison Population and Court Demand Trends

As shown in Figure 2 there have been substantial fluctuations in the total and sentenced populations since 2020.

Figure 2. Prison population (total, remand and sentenced), between 26th March 2020 and 1st April 2025[1].

Total population

As presented in Figure 2, the prison population fluctuated within a range between 7,350 and 7,650 from September 2020 until late 2022. In 2023 and 2024 the population grew strongly, and has remained above 7,800 since mid-July 2023. As expected, the population temporarily fell during December 2023/January 2024 due to seasonal effects. It then increased rapidly in early 2024, peaking at 8,361 on 14th May. Emergency Release[2] of certain short-term prisoners led directly to 477 individuals departing early in June and July 2024. Afterwards the population increased, reaching 8,260 on 6th December[3]. As expected, the population fluctuated during December 2024/January 2025 due to seasonal effects, then increased to reach 8,138 on 4th April 2025[4].

Remand population

The remand population (see Figure 2) increased from the beginning of 2022, reaching a peak of 2,292 on 1st February 2022, then typically decreased gradually during the rest of the year. In 2023 the remand population increased strongly throughout April and May, peaking at 2,312 on 30th May. From August to December 2023 the remand population generally decreased (it was 2,081 on 1st January 2024). In early 2024 it increased again, reaching a peak of 2,360 on 14th May 2024. The remand population was 2,174 on 4th April 2025.

Sentenced population

The sentenced population decreased slightly during 2022, from around 5,350 in January to around 5,250 in December. In contrast, during 2023 the sentenced population increased substantially, reaching a peak of almost 5,900 near the end of the year. The sentenced population then reduced slightly at the end of December 2023 before increasing again until it reached 6,056 on 21st June 2024[5]. Due to ER[6] the sentenced population reduced to 5,691 on 20th July but rose again, reaching 6,146 on 6th December 2024. Following the seasonal reduction it then increased to 6,108 on 17th of February 2025. Following implementation of the Prisoners (Early Release) Act 2025, the sentenced population had reduced to 5,964 on 4th April.

Remand Arrivals and Sentenced Departures

The prison population varies according to the volume and composition of the flows to/from the remand and sentenced populations. The focus tends to be on remand arrivals and sentenced departures because they are most important for the inflows and outflows, respectively, from the overall prison population. Figure 3 shows monthly remand arrivals from April 2020 to April 2025. Remand arrivals for April to September 2025 are sampled from the 12-month period leading up to the date of the projections (from March 2024 to February 2025). During the last 12 months the three-month period with the lowest remand arrivals (excluding December due to seasonal effects) was September to November 2024, with an average of around 710 remand arrivals per month. It is likely that when the projections are updated to cover Autumn 2025, they will use remand arrivals sampled from Autumn 2024.

Figure 3. Remand Arrivals and Sentenced Departures per month between April 2020 and April 2025.

In part due to the implementation of the second and third tranches of short-term prisoner early release changes, sentenced departures in March 2025 were the highest since May 2020 (when an ER was implemented in the wake of the Covid initial pandemic lockdown).

Composition of the sentenced prison population

The sentenced prison population from March 2020 to April 2025, sub-divided by sentence length is shown in Figure 4 below. All population groups tended to increase between 1st January 2023 and June 2024. It is shown that the short-term prison population decreased due to Emergency Release in June/July 2024 and due to the short-term prisoner Early Release in February/March 2025. The population serving overall sentences of more than four years, as well as those serving Orders of Lifelong Restriction, have continually increased over several years and now exceed pre-pandemic levels. The population serving life sentences has declined gradually since 2020.

Figure 4. Prison populations by overall sentence, 26th March 2020 to 7th April 2025[7].

Drivers of growth in prison population since 2023

The growth in the total prison population since the beginning of 2023 was driven by both remand and sentenced arrivals to custody. The remand population is influenced by the level of new cases registered and cases concluded in Scottish Courts[8]. Elevated court throughput (case conclusions) can lead to increased flow into the sentenced population. The Scottish Courts and Tribunals Service (SCTS) frequently publish information on the level of registrations and conclusions across all courts[9].

Some court recovery programme resources were switched from summary to solemn procedure on 1st April 2023, resulting in 2 additional High Court and 6 additional Sheriff Solemn trial courts[10], but 10 fewer Sheriff Court Summary trial courts. The charts in Figures 5 to 10 below show registrations and conclusions in recent years for High Court, Sheriff Court Solemn and Sheriff Court Summary. Figure 5 shows the number of High Court indictment registrations over the last decade from 2014/15 Q1 (covering April to June 2014) to 2024/25 Q3 (covering October to December 2024)[11]. The level of very serious criminal cases registered has increased this year such that the number of High Court indictments registered in the first nine months of 2024/25 (795) was 18% higher than during the first nine months of 2023/24 (673). In contrast, as shown in Figure 6, High Court conclusions during 9 months of 2024/25 (737) were around 3% less than during the same period in 2023/24 (759). In the latest SCTS criminal court modelling[12], it is assumed that High Court indictments will remain elevated, at around 1,100 per year for the next few years.

Sheriff Solemn Indictment registrations (see Figure 7) in the first nine months of 2024/25 (5,375) were around 5% lower than during the same period in 2023/24 (5,660). As shown in Figure 8, conclusions in the first nine months of 2024/25 (5,621) were around 6% lower than during the first nine months of 2023/24 (5,971). Sheriff Solemn imprisonment disposals are likely to continue to be elevated compared to prior to the introduction of additional solemn courts in April 2023; for example, in the first half of 2024/25 there were 17% more imprisonments (3,319) than during the same period in 2022/23 (2,900)[13].

Figure 5. High Court Indictments registered[14].

Figure 6. High Court Indictments concluded[15].

Figure 7. Sheriff Court Solemn Indictments registered[16].

Figure 8. Sheriff Court Solemn Indictments concluded[17].

The level of complaints registered in Sheriff Summary Courts during the first nine months of 2024/25 (46,815) was around 4% less than during same period during 2023/24 (48,770) (see Figure 9). Sheriff Court summary conclusions in the first nine months of 2024/25 were around 9% higher than during the first nine months of 2023/24 (see Figure 10). Sheriff Summary imprisonment disposals were around 21% higher in the first six months of 2024/25 (6,162) than in the first 6 months of 2023/24 (5,086)[18]. Therefore, despite the reduction in Sheriff Summary courts from April 2023, the trend of increasing numbers of imprisonment disposals, which began in Q1 2022-23, has continued and Sheriff Summary imprisonment disposals are around pre-pandemic levels.

Figure 9. Sheriff Court Summary complaints registered[19].

Figure 10. Sheriff Court Summary complaints concluded[20].

Taking all courts into consideration, elevated remand arrivals are associated with an increased level of summary and solemn criminal court business[21].

SCTS quarterly management information[22] shows that the national total trials scheduled[23] across all criminal courts increased steeply, due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, by around 140% from 18,100 in April 2020 to over 43,600 at the peak in January 2022. However, by the end of December 2024 it had reduced to 21,862. The number of Sheriff Solemn outstanding trials (Figure 12) decreased by 38% between December 2023 and December 2024. The enhanced court recovery resources in solemn courts has helped with this reduction in future scheduled trials. As shown in Figure 13, the number of Sheriff Summary trials outstanding also decreased substantially (by 19%) between the end of December 2023 and December 2024. However, in High Court, the number of outstanding trials has increased (see Figure 11) and was 15% higher in December 2024 (744) than in December 2023 (649).

Figure 11. High Court scheduled trials at end of period[24].

Figure 12. Sheriff Court Solemn scheduled trials at end of period[25].

Figure 13. Sheriff Court Summary scheduled trials at end of period[26].