Publication - Research and analysis

Improving Our Understanding of Seabird Behaviour at Sea

Published: 30 June 2022
From: Director-General Net Zero
Directorate: Marine Directorate
Topic: Energy, Environment and climate change, Marine and fisheries
ISBN: 9781804352175

This project collated tracking data from five seabird species thought to be vulnerable to offshore wind farms. These data were analysed to understand whether seabird distribution data, usually undertaken in daytime, good weather conditions, were representative of behaviour in other conditions.

Part of

Marine publications

Supporting documents

7.6 Appendix AF: AIC tables for individual species

7.6.1 Northern Gannet

Table A2: For Gannet, competing model list for comparing inclusion of covariates on transition probability between and within states at each colony; 'hour' represents the circular consinor(hour) variable, 'ws' spline(ws), 'jd' Julian date, and 'cdist' distance from the colony; stepturn is a model with only wind speed and direction included for effects on step length and turning angle; NULL is a model with no covariates included at all. * = model not converged.

(a) Alderney

Rank	Model	AIC	dAIC
1	hour.jd.cdist.ws	2615401.84	0.00
2	hour.jd.cdist	2615411.00	9.16
3	hour.cdist.w	2615448.81	46.97
1	hour.cdist	2615453.09	51.26
2	hour.jd.ws	2616347.04	945.20
3	hour.jd	2616364.46	962.62
4	hour.ws	2616382.19	980.35
5	hour	2616409.21	1007.37
6	jd.cdist.ws	2616420.73	1018.89
7	jd.cdist	2616422.98	1021.14
8	cdist	2616455.74	1053.90
9	cdist.ws	2616461.14	1059.31
10	jd.ws.	2617558.10	2156.26
11	jd	2617582.27	2180.44
12	ws	2617585.60	2183.76
13	NULL.wswd.stan	2617614.00	2212.16
14	NULL	2619618.00	4216.16

(b) Bass Rock 2010

Rank	Model	AIC	dAIC
1	hour.jd.cdist.ws	1357071.00	0.00
2	hour.jd.cdist	1357114.00	43.00
3	hour.cdist.ws	1357129.00	58.00
4	hour.cdist	1357194.00	123.00
5	hour.ws	1357505.00	434.00
6	hour.jd	1357514.00	443.00
7	hour	1357587.00	516.00
8	jd.cdist	1357832.00	761.00
9	cdist.ws	1357840.00	769.00
10	cdist	1357913.00	842.00
11	jd.ws	1358272.00	1201.00
12	ws	1358315.00	1244.00
13	jd	1358334.00	1263.00
14	NULL.wswd.stan	1358388.00	1317.00
15	NULL	1359337.00	2266.00
16	hour.jd.ws*	-	-
17	jd.cdist.ws*	-	-

Rank	Model	AIC	dAIC
1	hour.jd.cdist.ws	1249432.00	0.00
2	hour.jd.cdist	1249452.00	20.00
3	hour.cdist	1249492.00	60.00
4	hour.cdist.ws	1249507.00	75.00
5	hour.jd	1249609.00	177.00
6	hour.jd.ws	1249630.00	198.00
7	hour.ws	1249681.00	249.00
8	jd.cdist	1249978.00	546.00
9	jd.cdist.ws	1249989.00	557.00
10	cdist	1250034.00	602.00
11	cdist.ws	1250039.00	607.00
12	jd	1250193.00	761.00
13	jd.ws	1250215.00	783.00
14	NULL.wswd.stan	1250238.00	806.00
15	ws	1250257.00	825.00
16	NULL	1251612.00	-
17	hour	-	-

(d) Bass Rock 2012

Rank	Model	AIC	dAIC
1	hour.jd.cdist	1604325.00	0.00
2	hour.cdist.ws	1604392.00	67.00
3	hour.cdist	1604430.00	105.00
4	hour.jd.ws	1604698.00	373.00
5	hour.jd	1604723.00	398.00
6	hour.ws	1604782.00	457.00
7	hour	1604824.00	499.00
8	jd.cdist	1605132.00	807.00
9	cdist.ws	1605194.00	869.00
10	cdist	1605241.00	916.00
11	jd	1605626.00	1301.00
12	NULL.wswd.stan	1605674.00	1349.00
13	ws	1605689.00	1364.00
14	NULL	1606253.00	1928.00
15	hour.jd.cdist.ws	-	-
16	jd.cdist.ws	-	-
17	jd.ws	-	-

7.6.2 Lesser Black-backed Gull

Table A3: For Lesser Black-backed Gull, competing model list for comparing inclusion of covariates on transition probability between and within states at each colony; 'hour' represents the circular consinor(hour) variable, 'ws' spline(ws), 'jd' Julian date, and 'cdist' distance from the colony; stepturn is a model with only wind speed and direction included for effects on step length and turning angle; NULL is a model with no covariates included at all.; * = model not converged

(a) Walney

Rank	Model	AIC	dAIC
1	hour.jd.cdist.ws	352532.8	0
2	hour.jd.cdist	352582.1	49.3
3	hour.cdist.ws	352700.8	168
4	hour.cdist	352760.7	227.9
1	hour.jd.ws	352877.6	344.8
2	jd.cdist.ws	352893.9	361.1
3	jd.cdist	352904.7	371.9
4	hour.jd	352924.9	392.1
5	cdist.ws	353037.5	504.7
6	hour.ws	353096.1	563.3
7	hour	353154	621.2
8	jd.ws	353177	644.2
9	jd	353190	657.2
10	ws	353373.6	840.8
11	NULL.wswd.stan	353399.2	866.4
16	NULL	353814.2	NA
17	cdist	NA	NA

(b) Skokholm

Rank	Model	AIC	dAIC
1	hour.jd.cdist.ws	1064114.93	0.00
2	hour.jd.cdist	1064119.89	4.96
3	hour.cdist.ws	1064203.80	88.86
1	hour.cdist	1064213.93	99.00
2	jd.cdist.ws	1064314.90	199.97
3	jd.cdist	1064315.14	200.21
4	cdist.ws	1064393.71	278.78
5	cdist	1064409.55	294.62
6	hour.jd.ws	1064996.42	881.49
7	hour.jd	1065006.75	891.82
8	hour.ws	1065030.72	915.79
9	hour	1065040.22	925.28
10	jd.ws	1065141.04	1026.11
11	jd	1065151.53	1036.60
12	ws	1065181.42	1066.49
13	NULL.wswd	1065401.00	1286.07
14	NULL	1066117.00	2002.07

Rank	Model	AIC	dAIC
1	hour.jd.cdist.ws	283046.69	0.00
2	hour.cdist.ws	283066.72	20.03
3	hour.cdist	283082.40	35.71
4	jd.cdist	283252.55	205.86
5	jd.cdist.ws	283265.30	218.61
6	cdist	283296.15	249.46
7	cdist.ws	283304.93	258.24
8	hour	283323.60	276.91
9	hour.ws	283328.61	281.91
10	hour.jd	283330.83	284.14
11	jd	283491.16	444.46
12	jd.ws	283510.22	463.53
13	ws	283521.85	475.16
14	NULL.wswd	283690.20	643.51
15	NULL	283877.70	831.01
16	hour.jd.cdist	NA	NA
17	hour.jd.ws	NA	NA

7.6.3 Black-legged Kittiwake

Table A4: For Kittiwake, competing model list for comparing inclusion of covariates on transition probability between and within states at each colony; 'hour' represents the circular consinor(hour) variable, 'ws' spline(ws), 'jd' Julian date, and 'cdist' distance from the colony; stepturn is a model with only wind speed and direction included for effects on step length and turning angle; NULL is a model with no covariates included at all. * = model not converged
Colony	Rank	Model	AIC	dAIC
Isle of May	1	hour.jd.cdist.ws	371412.0	0.0
	2	ws	371930.8	518.8
	3	hour.jd.cdist	371955.2	543.2
	4	hour.cdist	371968.9	556.9
	5	hour.jd.ws	372100.4	688.4
	6	hour.ws	372128.9	716.9
	7	hour.jd	372160.6	748.6
	8	hour	372170.3	758.3
	9	cdist.ws	372220.8	808.8
	10	jd.cdist	372244.7	832.7
	11	cdist	372273.6	861.6
	12	jd.ws	372405.4	993.4
	13	jd	372465.7	1053.7
	14	stepturn	372481.7	1069.7
	15	NULL	372730.7	1318.7
Colonsay	1	hour.jd.cdist.ws	1099819.0	0.0
	2	hour.jd.cdist	1099823.0	4.0
	3	hour.cdist.ws	1100016.0	197.0
	4	hour.cdist	1100052.0	233.0
	5	jd.cdist.ws	1100368.0	549.0
	6	jd.cdist	1100373.0	554.0
	7	cdist.ws	1100606.0	787.0
	8	cdist	1100639.0	820.0
	9	hour.jd.ws	1101258.0	1439.0
	10	hour.jd	1101289.0	1470.0
	11	hour.ws	1101455.0	1636.0
	12	hour	1101515.0	1696.0
	13	jd.ws	1101886.0	2067.0
	14	ws	1102097.0	2278.0
	15	stepturn	1102148.0	2329.0
	16	NULL	1102663.0	2844.0
Bempton	1	hour.jd.cdist.ws	1064550.0	0.0
	2	hour.jd.cdist	1064657.0	107.0
	3	hour.cdist.ws	1064668.0	118.0
	4	hour.cdist	1064798.0	248.0
	5	hour.jd.ws	1064923.0	373.0
	6	hour.ws	1065034.0	484.0
	7	hour.jd	1065040.0	490.0
	8	hour	1065150.0	600.0
	9	jd.cdist.ws	1065165.0	615.0
	10	cdist.ws	1065252.0	702.0
	11	jd.cdist	1065268.0	718.0
	12	cdist	1065392.0	842.0
	13	jd.ws	1065552.0	1002.0
	14	ws	1065633.0	1083.0
	15	jd	1065655.0	1105.0
	16	stepturn	1065742.0	1192.0
	17	NULL	1065898.0	1348.0
Orkney	1	hour.jd.cdist	687026.7	0
	2	hour.jd.cdist.ws	687031.5	4.8
	3	hour.cdist	687049	22.3
	4	jd.cdist.ws	687069.4	42.7
	5	cdist.ws	687089.6	62.9
	6	jd.cdist	687096.4	69.7
	7	cdist	687100.3	73.6
	8	hour.jd.ws	688982.5	1955.8
	9	hour.jd	689066.2	2039.5
	10	jd.ws	689084.5	2057.8
	11	NULL_4state**	689084.5	2057.8
	12	hour.ws	689098.1	2071.4
	13	hour	689173.1	2146.4
	14	jd	689183.2	2156.5
	15	ws	689199	2172.3
	16	stepturn	689288.2	2261.5
	17	NULL_3state**	690191.7	3165

** Orkney note NULL four state model included, specifying a better fit to the data than a three state;

7.6.4 Razorbill

Table A5: For Razorbill, competing models comparing inclusion of covariates for effects on transition probability between and within states at each colony; 'hour' represents the circular consinor(hour) variable, 'ws' spline(ws), 'jd' Julian date, and 'cdist' distance from the colony; stepturn is a model with only wind speed and direction included for effects on step length and turning angle; NULL is a model with no covariates included at all.; 'hour' represents the circular consinor(hour) variable, 'ws' spline(ws), 'jd' Julian date, and 'colony.dist' distance from the colony.
Colony	Rank	Model	AIC	dAIC
Colonsay	1	hour.jd.colony.dist.ws	936966.10	0.00
	2	hour.jd.colony.dist	937012.20	46.10
	3	jd.colony.dist.ws	937221.67	255.57
	4	hour.colony.dist.ws	937229.74	263.64
	5	jd.colony.dist	937278.09	311.99
	6	hour.colony.dist	937299.35	333.24
	7	colony.dist.ws	937467.75	501.65
	8	colony.dist	937541.50	575.40
	9	hour.jd.ws	941621.90	4655.80
	10	hour.jd	941697.15	4731.05
	11	hour.ws	941882.16	4916.06
	12	hour	941963.98	4997.88
	13	jd.ws	942306.69	5340.59
	14	jd	942389.76	5423.66
	15	ws	942470.48	5504.38
Puffin Island	1	hour.jd.colony.dist.ws	703759.62	0.00
	2	hour.jd.colony.dist	703775.52	15.90
	3	hour.colony.dist.ws	704003.66	244.04
	4	hour.colony.dist	704027.67	268.05
	5	jd.colony.dist.ws	704174.25	414.63
	6	jd.colony.dist	704196.87	437.26
	7	colony.dist.ws	704346.18	586.56
	8	colony.dist	704378.73	619.11
	9	hour.jd.ws	705083.41	1323.79
	10	hour.jd	705131.17	1371.55
	11	hour.ws	705395.51	1635.89
	12	hour	705431.92	1672.30
	13	jd.ws	706086.68	2327.06
	14	jd	706156.30	2396.68
	15	ws	706296.72	2537.10
Isle of May	1	hour.jd.colony.dist.ws	482572.97	0.00
	2	hour.jd.colony.dist	482613.33	40.36
	3	hour.colony.dist.ws	482621.68	48.71
	4	hour.colony.dist	482685.98	113.01
	5	jd.colony.dist.ws	482746.35	173.38
	6	colony.dist.ws	482813.30	240.33
	7	jd.colony.dist	482814.87	241.90
	8	colony.dist	482912.49	339.52
	9	hour.jd.ws	484692.72	2119.75
	10	hour	484692.72	2119.75
	11	hour.ws	484742.77	2169.80
	12	hour.jd	484762.57	2189.60
	13	jd.ws	485108.87	2535.90
	14	ws	485218.02	2645.05
	15	jd	485243.32	2670.35

Table A6: Competing models, incorporating TDR data, comparing inclusion of covariates for effects on transition probability between and within states for each colony for Razorbills; 'hour' represents the circular consinor(hour) variable, 'ws' spline(ws), 'jd' Julian date, and 'colony.dist' distance from the colony.
Colony	Rank	Model	AIC	dAIC
Colonsay	1	hour	672997.4	0
	2	ws	673574.6	577.2223
	3	hour.colony.dist	721837.9	48840.51
	4	colony.dist	721949.3	48951.89
	5	hour.jd.colony.dist	722085.9	49088.53
	6	hour.colony.dist.ws	722119.4	49122.02
	7	jd.colony.dist	722164.1	49166.79
	8	colony.dist.ws	722186.2	49188.86
	9	hour.jd.colony.dist.ws	722366.9	49369.54
	10	jd.colony.dist.ws	722434.8	49437.43
	11	jd.RData	722656.8	49659.45
	12	hour.jd	722743.3	49745.94
	13	hour.ws	722779.8	49782.4
	14	jd.ws	722934.3	49936.92
	15	hour.jd.ws	723007.6	50010.22

7.6.5 Common Guillemot

Table A7: For Guillemot, competing models comparing inclusion of covariates for effects on transition probability between and within states at each colony; 'hour' represents the circular consinor(hour) variable, 'ws' spline(ws), 'jd' Julian date, and 'cdist' distance from the colony; stepturn is a model with only wind speed and direction included for effects on step length and turning angle; NULL is a model with no covariates included at all. 'hour' represents the circular consinor(hour) variable, 'ws' spline(ws), 'jd' Julian date, and 'colony.dist' distance from the colony.
Colony	Rank	Model	AIC	dAIC
Colonsay	1	hour.colony.dist	1567512.16	0.00
	2	hour.jd	1574766.43	7254.26
	3	hour.ws	1574801.31	7289.15
	4	hour	1574845.12	7332.95
	5	jd	1575044.13	7531.97
	6	ws	1575065.17	7553.00
	7	hour.jd.colony.dist.ws	1692599.56	125087.40
	8	hour.jd.colony.dist	1692612.85	125100.69
	9	hour.colony.dist.ws	1692778.75	125266.59
	10	jd.colony.dist.ws	1692950.00	125437.84
	11	jd.colony.dist	1692962.35	125450.19
	12	colony.dist.ws	1693108.83	125596.66
	13	colony.dist	1693122.04	125609.88
	14	hour.jd.ws	1699357.19	131845.03
	15	jd.ws	1699719.78	132207.61
Puffin Island	1	hour.jd.colony.dist.ws	509073.18	0.00
	2	hour.jd.colony.dist	509133.07	59.89
	3	jd.colony.dist.ws	509205.67	132.49
	4	hour.colony.dist.ws	509332.86	259.68
	5	jd.colony.dist	509340.91	267.73
	6	hour.colony.dist	509366.56	293.38
	7	colony.dist.ws	509502.95	429.76
	8	colony.dist	509564.27	491.09
	9	hour.jd.ws	510939.71	1866.52
	10	hour.jd	511036.59	1963.40
	11	jd.ws	511226.38	2153.20
	12	hour.ws	511246.46	2173.27
	13	hour	511358.75	2285.56
	14	jd	511400.52	2327.33
	15	ws	511551.97	2478.78
Fowlsheugh	1	hour.jd.colony.dist	143685.31	0.00
	2	hour.colony.dist.ws	143714.09	28.78
	3	hour.colony.dist	143720.85	35.53
	4	jd.colony.dist.ws	143723.79	38.48
	5	colony.dist.ws	143724.66	39.35
	6	jd.colony.dist	143724.82	39.51
	7	colony.dist	143740.12	54.81
	8	hour.jd.ws	144269.51	584.20
	9	jd.ws	144291.12	605.81
	10	hour.ws	144322.32	637.00
	11	ws	144323.64	638.33
	12	hour.jd	144350.50	665.19
	13	hour	144352.61	667.30
	14	jd	144359.44	674.13
	15	hour.jd.colony.dist.ws	157438.20	13752.89
Isle of May	1	hour.jd.colony.dist.ws	804590.45	0.00
	2	hour.jd.colony.dist	804712.55	122.10
	3	hour.colony.dist.ws	804749.56	159.12
	4	jd.colony.dist.ws	804819.43	228.99
	5	hour.colony.dist	804864.58	274.14
	6	colony.dist.ws	804977.75	387.30
	7	colony.dist	805104.91	514.46
	8	hour.jd.ws	807936.28	3345.84
	9	hour.ws	808027.03	3436.58
	10	hour.jd	808128.69	3538.24
	11	jd.ws	808132.87	3542.43
	12	hour	808232.64	3642.20
	13	ws	808239.87	3649.42
	14	jd	808336.16	3745.72

Table A8: Competing models, incorporating TDR data, comparing inclusion of covariates for effects on transition probability between and within states for each colony for Guillemots; 'hour' represents the circular consinor(hour) variable, 'ws' spline(ws), 'jd' Julian date, and 'colony.dist' distance from the colony.
		Model	AIC	dAIC
Colonsay	1	ws	669906.04	0.00
	2	hour	670167.05	261.00
	3	colony.dist	719205.60	49299.56
	4	hour.colony.dist	719543.19	49637.15
	5	jd.colony.dist	719561.05	49655.01
	6	hour.jd.colony.dist	719675.81	49769.76
	7	colony.dist.ws	719716.35	49810.30
	8	hour.colony.dist.ws	719786.89	49880.84
	9	jd.colony.dist.ws	719803.55	49897.50
	10	hour.jd.colony.dist.ws	720038.67	50132.63
	11	jd	720487.47	50581.42
	12	hour.jd.RData	720573.10	50667.05
	13	hour.ws	720635.33	50729.29
	14	jd.ws	720710.69	50804.65
	15	hour.jd.ws	720819.45	50913.41
Fowlsheugh	1	hour.colony.dist	110156.08	0.00
	2	hour	110653.30	497.21
	3	hour.jd	110883.24	727.16
	4	hour.ws	110931.61	775.53
	5	jd.colony.dist	112349.66	2193.58
	6	colony.dist.ws	112871.52	2715.43
	7	colony.dist	120581.60	10425.52
	8	ws	120648.79	10492.71
	9	jd	120656.08	10499.99
	10	jd.ws	120915.81	10759.72
	11	hour.jd.colony.dist	120973.96	10817.87
	12	hour.colony.dist.ws	120998.44	10842.36
	13	hour.jd.ws	121028.70	10872.62
	14	jd.colony.dist.ws	121127.20	10971.11
	15	hour.jd.colony.dist.ws	121268.20	11112.12

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