Future Trends for Scotland: findings from the 2024-2025 horizon scanning project

Foreword

The world around us is changing in ways that can be difficult to predict. By using insights and evidence about what is happening now, we can anticipate what the future might look like to build a prosperous Scotland.

The Future Trends for Scotland report, and supporting Trend Pack, provide robust evidence in the form of 60 trends likely to be important to Scotland over the next 10-to-20 years covering a broad range of thematic areas including politics, the economy, society, technology, health, and the environment. These trends highlight the uncertainty and complexity of our current and future world. Scotland needs to chart a course in a rapidly-changing world, where established geopolitical norms, values and relationships are increasingly under challenge. Our world is deeply interconnected, and events that take place elsewhere have direct impacts at home.

This publication does not cover potential policy or strategy implications, and is not a statement of government policy or intention. Rather, it provides open analysis to spark reflection and guide decisions in a complex interconnected world. As decision makers, we must adapt as things change, and build resilience, preparedness and flexibility into policies and the decisions we take, taking preventative action where we can.

By publishing these insights, we are following international best practice and meeting our commitments to openness and transparency. Learning from the Covid-19 pandemic and recent geopolitical events highlights the importance of anticipating future challenges and taking action to prevent, prepare for and mitigate negative impacts. Importantly, there are also opportunities to be seized. Understanding these complex and interconnected trends will allow us to shape Scotland’s course toward a positive future.

This publication is just one element of the work the Scottish Government is doing to get Scotland ready for the challenges of the future. To secure a truly prosperous future we must always have people at the heart of decisions we take, focusing on the wellbeing and equality of the Scottish population and our future generations. Horizon Scanning supports the achievement of the outcomes we want for Scotland by helping us anticipate change, navigate uncertainty and adapt our plans as circumstances evolve. We are therefore weaving the insights from this publication into our work to reform the National Performance Framework, to ensure it is truly fit for Scotland’s future.

Our recent Programme for Government acknowledged the challenging global context we are operating within. We are focused on taking clear action to address the priorities of the people of Scotland. But we are aware that these priorities shift and evolve over time.

Sustainable public finances are fundamental to delivering our key priorities, now and in the future. The Future Trends for Scotland report sets out a range of trends that will have implications for the public finances over the medium to longer-term, including demographic changes, the geopolitical environment, and demand for public services. We will publish our revised Medium-Term Financial Strategy in June 2025 which will set out the Government’s strategic approach to managing the public finances.

Insights in this Future Trends publication will allow us to use the best available evidence to make the right decisions for now and for the future. Our Public Service Reform Strategy, also publishing in June 2025, will set out how we can reform our services to be more efficient, more responsive to people’s needs and more focused on prevention, which will both improve outcomes for people and support a more sustainable public service environment.

The evidence on forecasted burden of disease, rising service demand, and financial sustainability is clear that prevention of poor health is required now more than ever. Our Population Health Framework sets out how the Scottish Government and COSLA, in partnership with the NHS and partners across business, the community and voluntary sector and communities themselves, can increase the positive effects that social, economic and environmental factors have on population health in order to build a Scotland that positively supports health and wellbeing. Our Health and Social Care Service Renewal Framework provides a clear vision for health and social care services, and a high-level strategic policy intent for service reform in the coming decade. It will introduce changes that will lead to that future.

By shaping strategy and policy towards achieving long-term outcomes, we can be ready as the world evolves, build in resilience, and link our shorter-term decisions to our longer-term ambitions.

Never before has it been more important to understand the complex world in which we live. In order to shape our future, it is our duty to provide the best information to enable good decisions to be made by all our leaders in Scotland. I urge you to draw on the insights in this publication – and those highlighted above – to prompt discussions and inform decisions, so that, together, we make the right choices for now and for our future.

Kate Forbes MSP

Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Gaelic