Future Trends for Scotland: findings from the 2024-2025 horizon scanning project

Project Methodology

The Scottish Government Horizon Scanning project has integrated evidence review, expert interviews, Horizon Scanning workshops with stakeholders and direct engagement with young people to build a nuanced and rounded picture of horizon trends and their implications for Scotland. The project has been guided throughout by regular input from senior leaders and advisers across the Scottish Government. The project methodology is described in more detail in this document.

Evidence Review

The first phase of the Horizon Scanning project included a rapid review of published global evidence, primarily drawing on data and evidence from global institutions and multilateral organisations, to identify major global trends with the likelihood of affecting the UK and Scotland. Through this process, major trend categories and a set of trends of potential relevance for Scotland were identified.

This was followed by a more detailed review of published evidence relating to key risks and trends affecting Scotland in particular, and the UK more broadly. This focused on understanding the evidence to identify how global and national trends are developing in Scotland, and which are likely to be particularly important over the horizon period in question.

The review focused on identifying, extracting and synthesising evidence and data from key published written sources, such as trend and risk reports from Scottish, UK and global sources. The evidence base includes a mix of official statistics, Government reports and academic and policy literature. However, it was not possible within the scope of a relatively short and wide-ranging project like this to undertake a fully comprehensive review of all the possible evidence underpinning each trend. A list of the sources that were used for the evidence review is provided in the accompanying trend pack. The evidence review was conducted by members of the Foresight and Capability Unit and Central Analysis Division in the Scottish Government.

The collected evidence was then organised into six overarching themes: Politics and Governance; Economy; Society and Communities; Technology; Natural Resources, Energy and Climate Change; and Health. This thematic structure was based on the categories emerging from the initial evidence review and adapted to cover issues of likely importance to Scotland. The themes correspond reasonably closely to the Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental and Values (PESTLEV) categories that are often used to map current or emerging trends that are likely to shape or have an impact on the future (drivers of change). Using this evidence base, the project team generated a set of long-term trends, risks and opportunities for each theme.

Stakeholder Interviews

Alongside the review of published evidence, the team undertook online semi-structured interviews with over 100 Scottish Government leaders and external stakeholders. External stakeholders were drawn from a wide range of public sector, private sector, third sector and academic institutions. The pool of stakeholders who were interviewed was based on stakeholder mapping, designed to ensure coverage of each of the major trend categories identified during the evidence development and a wide mix of different perspectives.

Interviews followed a broad set of guide questions, loosely adapted from the ‘seven-questions approach’,^[170] in order to explore interviewees’ views on which trends, risks and opportunities are of most importance for Scotland. This was combined with questions intended to capture interviewees’ expertise in relation to specific areas of interest. Interviews were scheduled to take up to one hour. The guide interview questions are set out in Box 1.

The interviews were used to support prioritisation of the identified trends, to explore specific questions and highlight gaps in the evidence base and to provide challenge and diverse perspectives to broaden the analysis.

The interview material was anonymised, analysed and coded using keywords to identify key themes and topics, and to help articulate the relevance and importance of key risks, opportunities and trends for Scotland. The project team also drew on a series of interviews undertaken in 2023 with Chief Science Advisers across the Scottish Government. Insights from these interviews were used to help identify key trends, risks and opportunities for further investigation in the evidence review.

All interviewees were asked to review a privacy notice and sign a consent form explaining how their data and insights would be used and stored. Each interview was led by an interviewer from the project team and supported by a notetaker. In some cases, Microsoft Teams transcription tools were used to support the note-taking, with permission from the interviewee. Interviewees were asked to review a summary of the transcript and confirm that they were happy with the conversation recorded. No insights from stakeholders who did not review and confirm their interview notes have been quoted in the findings. All stakeholder insights included in the report are non-attributed.

Developing the Trends

The selection of trends in this pack was developed based on the review of published evidence in combination with the interview analysis. Scottish Government analysts undertook an in-depth review of all the material from the evidence review and from the interviews in order to synthesise the list of trends presented here.

The trends were organised into six overarching themes already used for the evidence review. The project team undertook some initial consideration of the interactions and relationships between trends across these thematic boundaries, and this was further explored during the subsequent stakeholder workshops.

Material from the evidence review was used to develop a very concise summary of data relating to each trend. This was integrated with a brief summary and some verbatim insights from the stakeholder interviews. The output of this process was a trend pack which was used as an input for a series of Horizon Scanning workshops, which took place in November 2024 and are further described below. The trend pack is published alongside this report.

Box 1: Horizon Scanning: Topic guide used for semi-structured interviews

1.In your own area of interest and expertise and beyond, what trends are likely to be important for the next 10-20 years? What sorts of things are changing over time and are likely to evolve in future? (Prompt: What about for Scotland in particular?)

Follow-up: Are there particular trends that, as a country, we aren’t paying enough attention to?

2.Thinking ahead, what opportunities do you see emerging for Scotland in the next 10-20 years? Are there positive trends, or strengths that Scotland has, that we should be harnessing to bring about positive outcomes?

3.Turning now to think about potential challenges, are there risks that you are especially concerned about over the longer term?

Follow-up: What is the level of certainty about these risks?

Follow-up: What impact could these risks have in Scotland?

4.What are the interrelationships between the various trends and risks that you foresee? Follow-up: And what about interconnections with opportunities?

5.Thinking about everything we’ve discussed so far, what do you think are the major uncertainties in this area? Are there competing views of how things might develop?

Follow-up: Is there anyone else in your field who takes quite a different view on this?

6.Lastly, we’re interested in understanding the core underlying issues or drivers that might be having wide-ranging effects across your area and even beyond – for example, underlying issues with infrastructure or inequalities. What would you say are the fundamental issues in your area?

7.Before we wrap up, is there anything else you’d like to mention that we haven’t covered so far?

Horizon Scanning Workshops

Following the evidence review and stakeholder interviews, the project team led two series of online Horizon Scanning workshops with external and internal stakeholders. These workshops aimed to help shape an understanding of the long-term risks and opportunities relating to each of the identified trends for Scotland. The workshops were designed using futures tools and methodologies in order to:

1.Check the interpretation of the trends evidence, seek challenge and feedback and check for any gaps in trends identified

2.Inform prioritisation and our understanding of the drivers of change most critical to Scotland

3.Explore the risks and opportunities that are likely to be most important to Scotland over the next 10-20 years

4.Help build our understanding of the linkages and interactions between trends, across different thematic categories

5.Bring equalities perspectives to enhance understanding of the implications of the trends for different groups and communities.

Over 200 stakeholders were invited to attend the online workshops in November 2024, including Scottish Government leaders, sectoral experts and representatives from public sector, private sector and civil society organisations. The mix of invitees was intended to achieve a balance of government and non-government representation, and to incorporate a wide thematic spread of expertise. The invitees included stakeholders who had participated in interviews, as well as a wider group who were identified as being able to bring additional valuable perspectives, particularly in relation to inequalities issues and other themes that had not been fully covered during the evidence gathering and interview process.

Overall, 96 unique participants took part in the workshops. Of these, 28 (29%) were Scottish Government staff – mainly senior leaders representing a wide range of policy areas – and 68 (71%) were external experts and leaders. Participants included: representatives from academic institutions (20%); participants from other public bodies and agencies (21%); participants representing Local Government (9%); and representatives of third sector organisations (8%). Remaining participants included think tanks and consultancies, a small number of industry and private sector organisations and representatives of the UK Government. Many of the participants had previously taken part in stakeholder interviews as part of the wider Horizon Scanning project. Industry and private sector perspectives were under-represented in the workshop participation.

The workshops were designed to take participants through a process of:

• Initial discussion and prioritisation of the trends
• Discussion of Scotland’s strengths and weaknesses in relation to the trends
• Identification of important clusters of trends across thematic boundaries
• Exploration of the longer term implications of clusters of trends, and how they might play out over a 20-year horizon.

Participants were encouraged to consider cross-cutting issues, such as inequalities, at all stages of the discussions.

Each workshop lasted for two hours. Participants were encouraged to attend both the first and the second workshops where possible, although in practice there were a number of participants who were only able to attend one of the workshops.

The workshops were facilitated by members of the Horizon Scanning project team and used Mural, an online visual collaboration platform, as a space for participants to interact with the materials and add their own inputs. Note-taking was supported using the Microsoft Teams transcription function.

Workshop One: Key trends shaping Scotland

In advance of the workshop, all participants received the outputs from the first phase of the evidence review including the 60 trends, supporting evidence and interview insights. Participants were also invited to take part in a pre-workshop polling exercise to express their views on the relative importance of the trends identified for Scotland

Following a short presentation of the trends, participants were invited to comment on the trends in a plenary discussion. This was followed by a series of breakout sessions, where:

• Participants were asked to comment on the trends and prioritised lists derived from the pre-workshop polling.
• The groups plotted the prioritised trends on an ‘uncertainty/ importance matrix’,^[171] and discussed the frequency with which individual trends were placed in the highest importance area of the matrix; the degree of certainty accorded to individual trends; and the emerging clustering of trends.
• Participants considered the trends over which Scotland has some control and influence and the trends where Scotland will be responding to events beyond our control.
• Groups then discussed any assets and advantages that will support Scotland to take advantage of the opportunities posed by trends, or to be resilient to their negative impacts.
• The final part of the discussion focused on the perceived vulnerabilities and disadvantages that may reduce Scotland’s resilience to – or ability to take advantage of – opportunities arising as a result of future trends.

Following this workshop, the project team used the feedback from participants on the ways in which trends interconnect, reinforce or work in opposition to each other to develop a series of ‘trend clusters’ linking trends across different thematic areas. Trend clusters also reflected the feedback received about ‘foundational’ trends – trends that appear to be driving change in fundamental and cross-cutting ways, such as demographic change, technological change, climate change and changes in the ways in which people use and access information – and about high-importance trends.

The nine trend clusters developed as an output from Workshop One were:

• Climate change and eco-system collapse
• Fiscal sustainability and public services
• Geopolitical challenges – Scotland in an uncertain geopolitical environment
• Lifelong learning, education and skills
• Mental health, wellbeing and loneliness^[172]
• Mis- and disinformation, trust, democracy and polarisation
• Population, ageing and health
• The adoption of AI is increasing
• Wealth, inequality and socio-economic wellbeing.

Workshop Two: Key risks and opportunities for Scotland

The outputs from Workshop One informed the design, methodology and focus for Workshop Two. Responding to participants’ feedback, the project team considered both risks and opportunities arising from the trend clusters. To identify and map connections, causalities and impacts which might emerge in the future, the participants used Futures Wheels – a futures methodology that can be used to consider the longer-term impacts of current trends. Participants used the Futures Wheels to consider the possible short (<5 years), medium (5-10 years) and long-term (20 years) impacts that may arise as a result of trends in that cluster playing out.

Workshop participants were split into groups, and each group was asked to consider the future consequences of an assigned trend cluster. Participants were supported to build impact chains that considered the potential positive and negative impacts of the trends, their implications for equalities and the key risks and opportunities for Scotland that emerged for each cluster.

The wheels integrated the six overarching project themes: Politics and Governance; Economy; Society and Communities; Technology; Natural Resources, Energy and Climate Change; and Health. These themes were used to prompt and structure discussion and supported participants to consider the potential interconnections and impacts of trends across different sectors.

Following the workshops, all participants were asked to complete an evaluation of their experience. A summary of both workshops, along with the results of the workshop evaluation, were shared with all participants.

Children and Young People: Horizon Scanning Engagement

Alongside the interviews and workshops with leaders and expert stakeholders, the Horizon Scanning project has integrated direct engagement with young people. The need to integrate the perspectives of young people was identified early in the project, recognising that young people are often not included in foresight work, despite the fact that their perspectives and experiences are crucial for understanding the future.

Accordingly, work began in early 2024 to explore opportunities for direct Horizon Scanning engagement with young people. As part of their Futures Framework Funding Pilot, the UK Government Office for Science agreed to provide funding for a small-scale youth engagement which would integrate innovative methodological work with a futures practitioner organisation. Demos Helsinki were contracted as the futures practitioner, alongside Scottish Youth Parliament (SYP) who would lead the recruitment of a diverse group of young people to co-create and take part in the engagement, as well as taking responsibility for ensuring that the project was undertaken in line with ethical, safeguarding and data protection requirements.

Alongside exploring young people’s views about the future, the engagement was designed to develop and test a methodology and set of tools for engaging young people in conversations about the future. This methodology has the potential to be used and adapted for future youth engagement work in Scotland and other contexts.

The project adopted a co-creation approach to ensure that young people were active leaders during the design and delivery of the project. SYP recruited four current Members of the Scottish Youth Parliament (MSYPs) to form an ‘Investigation Team’ to work with Demos Helsinki to design and co-facilitate the workshops. The Investigation Team directly contributed to the design of the session, materials and facilitation approach, as well as being co-facilitators and informing the analysis and report.

Workshop participants were recruited through the SYP’s networks, including through the current SYP membership and partner organisations. Recruitment aimed to include young people from different backgrounds and experiences including: gender balance, some diversity of socio-economic background and geographical location and to include young people who did not have prior experience of engagement on the topics. To reduce barriers to participation, participants were compensated for any travel expenses, and were given a voucher in recognition of their time commitment.

The workshop was held in central Edinburgh in February 2025. Fifteen young people aged 14-19 participated, alongside three members of the Investigation Team, who led the facilitation. Participants were drawn from a range of geographical locations across Scotland – including areas representing different levels of deprivation, and from a mix of urban and rural areas. There was some ethnic diversity within the group, as well as diverse life experiences including caring experience and experience of disability.

The workshop approach combined foresight methods with participatory techniques. The structure, materials and activities were designed to equip young people with futures literacy, strengthening their ability to think critically about long-term change, whilst encouraging young people to engage with the trends in an active, imaginative way.

The workshop incorporated four activities, each providing a different lens through which participants could explore Scotland’s future, and articulate their own views and priorities for action:

1.Introducing futures thinking

2.Evidence generation using trend cards

3.Exploring future states through an immersive gallery approach

4.Mapping priorities for policy action.

The materials included:

• Trend cards to enable participants to explore key societal, technological and environmental trends, categorising them as exciting, concerning or neutral, and identifying areas requiring urgent action
• Future states – four alternative future scenarios for Scotland in 2040, which helped participants examine how different policy and societal choices could lead to different futures
• Future artefacts – creative exercises where participants engaged with imagined future objects, media or narratives to make abstract trends more clear and real.

Following the workshop, Demos Helsinki developed a draft report which was shared with the Investigation Team and with participating young people for review, in order to ensure that the report would reflect their views accurately.

Full details of the workshop methodology and findings are available in the report of the engagement ‘Young People and the Future of Scotland: A Participatory Horizon Scanning Engagement’.