Future Trends for Scotland: findings from the 2024-2025 horizon scanning project

2. Future Trends for Scotland

Introduction

To explore the trends that may be important for Scotland over the next 10-to-20 years, the first phase of the Horizon Scanning Project 2024-25 focused on gathering evidence through a review of published literature and stakeholder interviews. The literature review focused on understanding the evidence to identify how global and national trends are developing in Scotland, and which are likely to be particularly important over this time period. Following this, over 100 stakeholders – including senior leaders from the Scottish Government and the wider public sector in Scotland, representatives from the third and private sectors and academics – were interviewed to capture a wide range of insights and views on the trends that could be important for Scotland in the future.

An in-depth review of all the material gathered from this phase was then undertaken in order to synthesise a list of 60 trends organised across six overarching themes:

• Politics and Governance
• Economy
• Society and Communities
• Technology
• Natural Resources, Energy and Climate Change
• Health.

The trends are set out in in the table below and summarised in Section Two of this report. More details on the evidence and interview insights that inform each trend are available in ‘Future Trends for Scotland: Project Methodology’.

Politics and Governance

Geopolitics and global development

• P1: The global geopolitical environment is increasingly unpredictable
• P2: Multilateral institutions are increasingly unable to respond to global challenges
• P3: Progress in global development and inequality is stalling

Conflict

• P4: The number and severity of conflicts is increasing globally
• P5: Conflict is changing, with new technology and actors and expanding into space and cyberspace

Migration

• P6: Voluntary and involuntary migration are increasing

Democracy, polarisation and misinformation

• P7: Democracy faces challenges globally and dissatisfaction with political institutions in the UK has increased
• P8: Political and social polarisation are increasing
• P9: Mis- and disinformation are a growing risk in the UK, and trust in institutions is falling

Economy

Living standards and income inequality

• E1: Real earnings growth has been relatively flat since 2008. Technology and net zero could determine future living standards
• E2: Income and wealth inequality have fluctuated over recent decades but remain largely unchanged

Labour market and skills

• E3: Scotland’s working-age population is growing, however ageing and ill-health create uncertainty for the future labour market
• E4: Automation and decarbonisation are expected to change the labour market, displacing and creating jobs
• E5: The focus on lifelong learning and skills will grow in future

Trade, investment and supply chains

• E6: The global economy is becoming more diverse, driven particularly by growth in Asia
• E7: The likelihood of supply chain disruption is increasing
• E8: There is growing focus on private investment to meet future challenges, but views differ on the role of foreign investment

Fiscal sustainability and financial markets

• E9: Fiscal sustainability challenges are leading to increased pressure on public service provision
• E10: Following a period of relative financial stability, global debt and financial market risks are growing

Society and Communities

Demography

• S1: Scotland’s population is expected to grow over the next 20 years, and will continue to age
• S2: Scotland’s population is becoming more urbanised, with depopulation in many rural communities
• S3: Scotland’s population is expected to become more diverse

Poverty and wealth

• S4: Overall relative poverty rates have been broadly stable over the past decade
• S5: Wealth inequality is growing between generations and within generations
• S6: A growing number of older people risk not having enough pension savings for retirement

Education and justice

• S7: Crime has fallen in recent decades, particularly youth crime, but crime is increasingly online and internationalised
• S8: School populations are expected to decline in future, but pupils will have more complex needs
• S9: Scottish further and higher education sectors compare well globally, but are under increasing financial pressure

Society and culture

• S10: The number of people living alone or experiencing loneliness is increasing
• S11: The growing use of social media is increasing connection, but is also linked to polarisation and online harms
• S12: The use of AI and online platforms are changing how people create and experience culture

Infrastructure and housing

• S13: Housing affordability is a significant challenge, especially for low-income households renting privately
• S14: Infrastructure costs are growing, making it harder to meet future challenges such as decarbonisation

Technology

AI and emerging technologies

• T1: The adoption of AI is increasing across society
• T2: Increasing development and adoption of more use-cases of quantum technology
• T3: The Scottish space sector is growing, with an increased dependence on space assets, data and activities

Green technologies and life sciences

• T4: Growing focus of technological efforts towards supporting energy transition and net zero ambitions
• T5: Scotland’s life sciences sector is growing, with cross-cutting opportunities increasing

Global technology companies and data

• T6: Multinational technology companies are dominating markets with greater focus on how to regulate them
• T7: Society is becoming increasingly digitalised with more services being provided online

Cyber

• T8: Cyber-attacks and threats have grown in sophistication and frequency

Natural Resources, Energy and Climate Change

Climate change and just transition

• N1: Global climate change will lead to further increases in extreme weather events in Scotland
• N2: The shift away from fossil fuels will transform Scotland’s infrastructure and economy, increasing the focus on just transition

Biodiversity and soils

• N3: Biodiversity loss and risk of ecosystem collapse are accelerating globally and in Scotland
• N4: Soil degradation and coastal erosion are increasingly impacting the quality and availability of land

Water and marine ecosystems

• N5: Scotland’s future water quality and availability are increasingly at risk due to climate change and human activity
• N6: Marine ecosystems are increasingly vulnerable to climate change, pollution and contaminants

Food, agriculture, forestry, land and waste

• N7: Concern about food security and production is increasing due to geopolitical pressures and the impacts of climate change
• N8: Changes in land uses are increasingly contributing to the climate and biodiversity crisis
• N9: Increased levels of waste and pollutants are hazardous for health and biodiversity

Health

Population health

• H1: The population is projected to experience an increasing burden of disease
• H2: Obesity has been slowly rising for many years
• H3: Cigarette use shows a long-term fall, but vaping is increasing. Drug and alcohol-specific deaths remain high

Infectious diseases

• H4: Immunisation uptake is declining and vaccine hesitancy rising
• H5: Antimicrobial resistance is stable in Scotland but rising globally
• H6: The risk of another global pandemic is increasing

Mental health and neurodiversity

• H7: Common mental health conditions are increasing, especially in young people
• H8: Neurodivergence diagnoses are increasing, particularly among adults and girls

Health systems

• H9: The NHS is under pressure, with increasing demand and workforce pressures a major challenge
• H10: Advances in medicine and technology are improving healthcare

Interconnections between trends

By presenting the trends in thematic groupings, it is not possible to reflect all the interconnections and drivers that link and underpin them. However, it is recognised that these trends are highly interconnected across thematic boundaries. Developing understanding of these thematic interconnections was an important focus for the workshops which were undertaken as part of the project.

In these workshops, participants also identified ‘foundational’ trends – trends that appear to be driving change in fundamental and cross-cutting ways, such as demographic change, technological change, climate change and changes in the ways in which people use and access information. Feedback from participants on the ways in which trends interconnect, reinforce or work in opposition to each other was used to develop a series of ‘trend clusters’ linking trends across different thematic areas. Further details on the trend cluster discussions can be found in Section Three of this report.

Inequalities

The trends that affect Scotland’s future will have differential impacts for different equalities groups. Intersecting inequalities and disadvantage may reduce the resilience or the ability of individuals, households and communities to adapt to future challenges, or to take advantage of future opportunities. In many cases the trends have the potential to drive and deepen inequalities further.

While the trend material presented reflects some of the ways in which the trends interact with inequalities, a systematic review of evidence relating to all equalities dimensions of the trends described here was outside the scope of this project. The project team hope that this work provides a useful basis for future analysis to explore the inequalities dimensions of horizon trends more deeply.

2.1 Politics and Governance

Geopolitics and global development

The global geopolitical environment is entering a more volatile and insecure phase where norms, institutions and alignments that characterised post-World War Two global relations are increasingly contested. Multilateral processes and institutions are struggling to respond effectively to global challenges, such as conflict or climate change. This is accompanied by a shift towards increased multipolarity and formation of new alignments between countries. There is intensifying ‘great power’ rivalry between the US and China,^[9] and a growing focus on the ‘Indo-Pacific’ region.^[10] Interviewees reflected on the challenges facing global cooperation, as well as Scotland’s potential role as a global actor and the need for policy coherence to support credibility in this.

In terms of global development, levels of extreme poverty fell rapidly between 2010-19 but since then progress on reducing poverty has stalled, with just 16% of the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets on track.^[11] Debt has been increasing and the gap in finance for development increasing. While inequality between countries has decreased, inequality within countries is increasing sharply.^[12] A young middle class is growing in Asia, in India and China in particular, and will drive consumption trends and economic growth.^[13] While some countries will make gains from global decarbonisation, a nexus of conflict, climate change and poverty means others are at risk of falling further behind – concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia. This will drive deeper insecurity, inequalities and poverty. Women are disproportionately affected.^[14]

Conflict

The number and severity of conflicts is increasing around the world,^[15] and so is military spending. World military expenditure totalled $2,443 billion in 2023, the highest level recorded, and spending per person was the highest since 1990 at $306.^[16] European nations face challenges to their historical reliance on NATO for security.^[17] The nature of conflict is also changing; conflicts increasingly play out in space or cyberspace and in hybrid forms across social, economic, political, technological and military dimensions.^{[18] [19]} Interviewees focused on the threats to Scotland/UK posed by cyberwarfare, the blurred lines between military and civilian infrastructure, the role of Scotland’s space industry in defence and military applications and the strategic future role of northern and Arctic regions.

Migration

Voluntary and involuntary migration are increasing; migration to OECD countries reached a record high in 2022.^[20] Between 2020-21 and 2022-23, net migration to Scotland almost tripled, from 22,200 to 61,600. Of this 2022-23 figure, 47,700 was net international migration, largely due to growth in the number of international students, as well as fewer people leaving Scotland.^[21] Interviewees acknowledged the challenges that may be posed by climate displacement in future, as well as the potential opportunities for migration to help Scotland respond to demographic pressures.

Democracy, polarisation and misinformation

Democracy is facing challenges globally. Attempts by external actors to interfere in democracy have increased, with evidence of persistent efforts by hostile states to interfere in elections, including in the UK.^[22] Dissatisfaction with politics has grown in the UK and Scotland, while trust in institutions has reduced. ^[23] The World Values Survey found that UK respondents were among the least likely to have confidence in UK political institutions, compared with data from 23 other countries, particularly among younger people.^[24] Inequalities can also impact on public trust, for example, the Scottish Household Survey found that people living in more deprived areas were less likely to express trust in several public institutions than those living in less deprived areas.^[25]

While the trend in the UK has been towards greater liberalism or progressivism across a range of social and economic attitudes for all age groups,^[26] the gap between left- and right-leaning people’s views on social and economic issues is widening and there is some evidence that polarisation is increasing in the UK.^[27] World Values Study findings for 24 countries rank the UK as the second most polarised society after the US, albeit the UK is much less polarised than the US.^[28] Inequalities may increase vulnerability to polarising and radicalising forces.^[29]

How people access information and news has changed fundamentally. Traditional broadcast and print media are increasingly being replaced by social media as a primary source of news,^[30] especially among young people.^[31] Mis- and disinformation are an increasing global concern; in 2024 and 2025, the World Economic Forum cited misinformation as the biggest short-term risk.^[32] There are concerns about the use of technology to generate misinformation and deepfakes, linked with the ease and speed of sharing via online platforms. Threat actors are using disinformation as a tool to destabilise and drive division.^[33] Several interviewees discussed the growth in mis- and disinformation and the impact this has on trust and polarisation.

2.2 Economy

Living standards and inequality

Living standards have grown relatively slowly since the 2008 financial crisis – real average earnings in Scotland were around the same level in 2024 as they were in 2008.^[34] Going forward, the focus will be on whether technology and decarbonisation can boost living standards. The transition to net zero could improve productivity and living standards by improving energy and resource efficiency and shifting from low productivity sectors to high value-added sectors of the clean economy.^[35] However, these transitions could create some disruption for certain sectors, including sectors such as oil and gas, which could, over time, lead to growth in inequality between certain groups, or between different regions.^[36]

Income inequality in Scotland has fluctuated but remained largely unchanged since the beginning of data collection in the mid-1990s.^[37] Wealth is more unequally distributed than income and the absolute wealth gap between the least wealthy and the wealthiest in Scotland is increasing. Interviewees told us that there is greater awareness of the importance of tackling inequality. They expressed concerns about in-work poverty.

Labour market and skills

Scotland’s working-age population is expected to grow in the next two decades, based on current projections, before declining after 2050.^[38] However, because the number of people in older age groups is increasing more quickly, the share of the population aged 16-64 is projected to fall by 5.2 percentage points over the next 50 years.^[39] Despite the working-age population being expected to grow in the coming decades, Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) projections suggest that the economic participation rate could decline amongst the working-age population because many workers are reaching older age, where they are more likely to be inactive, for example, due to early retirement.^[40] However, the SFC projections also note that a planned increase to the state pension age to 68 in 2039-40 could lead to a slight uplift in participation in the 2040s, before declining thereafter. Interviewees noted that labour market challenges could be a big constraint in future, particularly due to demographic change.^[41]

Automation and decarbonisation are expected to change the labour market, displacing and creating jobs. Estimates of the impact of automation vary significantly by source; a UK Government estimate suggests around 10-30% of existing UK jobs are highly automatable and may be subject to some level of change over the next 20 years.^[42] There is some concern that automation may ‘hollow out’ the labour market, pushing workers in the middle either into higher or lower paying jobs.^[43] Interviewees reflected on the potential impact that Artificial Intelligence (AI) and transition to net zero could have on the labour market, however, views on the scale of labour market disruption varied.

As the labour market changes, the types of skills people need will also likely change. There is increasing focus on ‘meta-skills’, i.e. skills that create adaptive learners and thinkers such as communication, collaboration, creativity and critical thinking^[44] and demand for green skills is also growing.^[45] Interviewees discussed the need to find different learning pathways for people at different points in their lives because of labour market changes.

Trade, investment and supply chains

The structure of the global economy has changed significantly in the past 50 years. According to the World Bank Database, Asia has increased its share of global gross domestic product (GDP) from around 18% to 30%.^[46] The trading environment is also changing, with an observed rise in protectionism in various regions, including North America, Europe, and Asia, largely driven by growing geopolitical tensions. Supply chain risks are one of the key risks noted by the World Economic Forum (WEF) ‘Global Risks’ report.^[47] Climate change, competition for critical minerals and energy resources and increasing protectionism all pose potential risks to supply chains. Impacts to supply chains – particularly for essential commodities such as food and energy – are likely to have disproportionate impacts on those on low incomes.^[48] Interviewees discussed supply chain resilience and many agreed that access to resources would be more challenging in the future due to increased competition and geopolitical factors.

Investment in Scotland and the UK has been relatively low compared to other OECD countries – it was around 18% of GDP in 2023, which was in the bottom quartile of OECD countries.^[49] However, Scotland is the second most attractive location for foreign direct investment (FDI) in the UK, accounting for 14.4% of all UK FDI projects.^[50] The investment challenges ahead are significant. For example, the SFC estimates that an average of £1.1 billion a year (in 2024 prices) will be required in additional capital investment from the Scottish Government to reach net zero over the period 2020 to 2050.^[51] Interviewees agreed that increasing investment was important for the future, but views differed on the role of foreign investment in future.

Fiscal sustainability and financial markets

A number of experts across multiple sectors told us that fiscal challenges are a significant trend for the coming 20 years. The gap between Scottish public spending and funding could reach 11% on average each year over the next 50 years (£14 billion per year).^[52] Focus on public service reform and productivity will grow, for example, a lot of attention has been placed on the role AI could have on public sector productivity.^[53]

The global financial system has been relatively stable since the global financial crisis in 2008. Financial regulations and prudence brought about in the aftermath of the financial crisis have reduced the likelihood of financial disruption.^[54] However, there are a number of potential risks to global financial markets in the medium term, for example, debt burdens in a number of countries are high, and growing, as a result of repeated economic shocks.^[55] Recent trade disruption driven from tariff policy changes in the United States had a significant impact on financial markets across the globe and highlighted another avenue of potential risk and uncertainty for financial markets.^[56]

2.3 Society and Communities

Demography

Scotland’s overall population is projected to continue growing until 2051, with migration the driver for growth as the birth rate continues to fall.^[57] Scotland’s population is ageing: the number of over-67s is projected to rise by 38% between 2022 and 2047, while the number of under-16s is expected to decline by around 9%.^[58] The number of working-age people (16-67) is expected to grow modestly, increasing by around 2% on 2022 levels by 2047, but to decrease slightly as a proportion of the total population.^[59]

Scotland’s population is becoming more urbanised, with population growth concentrated in urban areas, the central belt and in the East of Scotland.^[60] Population in the West of Scotland is declining. Scotland is also expected to become more diverse in future, largely driven by migration. International net migration is projected to add around 19,500 people each year on average between 2028 and 2047.^[61] Interviewees talked about the varied impacts of demographic change in different places in Scotland, as well as the challenges and opportunities posed by increased migration.

Poverty and wealth

Overall relative poverty rates have remained broadly unchanged over the past decade; it is estimated that 20% of Scotland’s population was living in relative poverty after housing costs in 2021-24.^[62] However, poverty rates are consistently higher for certain sub-sections of the population. Between 2019-24, the relative poverty rate was 43% for ‘Asian or Asian British’ ethnic groups and 50% for ‘Mixed, Black or Black British and Other’ ethnic groups, compared with 20% for ‘White – Other’ and 18% for ‘White – British’ groups.^[63] In-work poverty has increased over the long term.^[64] Poverty may reduce resilience to unexpected future shocks. For example, given that those in poverty spend a larger share of income on energy, they were disproportionately impacted by the recent increase in energy prices and resulting cost of living crisis.^[65] Interviewees talked about the importance of addressing poverty as well as the long-term negative consequences of childhood poverty.

Wealth inequality is growing between and within generations. Interviewees told us that there are significant inequalities developing between generations, with wealth and opportunities more constrained for those in younger generations. In the UK, the typical person in their late 30s in 2018-20 had almost £30,000 less wealth than those of the same age in 2006-08, while the typical person in their early 60s had nearly £170,000 more wealth than their counterparts of the same age in 2006-08.^[66] However, while wealth is higher among the older age cohort in general, there are many older people who don’t hold significant wealth or assets. Some evidence suggests that the combination of ageing, growing ill-health, lower home ownership and lower pension savings, may increase the risk of older people experiencing poverty and ill-health relative to previous generations.^[67] Interviewees noted the risk of increased pensioner poverty in older cohorts, particularly driven by inadequate pensions in older age.

Education and justice

Over the past ten years, total recorded crime in Scotland has decreased by 15% to around 300,000. This continues a generally decreasing trend in recorded crime over the longer term, from a peak in 1991 when crime reached a record high of 613,943 cases.^[68] The number of young people in the justice system has fallen significantly. On an average day in 2009-10 there were 1,012 people under 21 in Scottish prisons, and young people made up 13% of the prison population.^[69] In 2023-24 there were 168 young people in custody on an average day, comprising just 2% of the prison population.^[70] While some types of crime have decreased, the rates of cybercrime in Scotland have been increasing rapidly, with the majority of perpetrators operating from overseas.^[71] Interviewees told us that the decline in youth crime is a positive trend but expressed concern about violence against women and girls and the challenges to tackle the root causes of crime. Organised crime is a growing concern.

As the number of children in Scotland declines, primary school enrolments are expected to fall by 1.7% per year and secondary school enrolments by 1.2% per year, between 2022 and 2035.^[72] Pupil attainment has been broadly unchanged over the long term, and there is a persistent attainment gap between pupils from the most and least disadvantaged areas.^[73] There has been a rapid increase in the number of children in Scottish schools who have an additional support need, increasing from 5.3% in 2007 to 40.5% in 2024, though some of this increase may be due to improvements in recording additional support needs over time.^[74]

Scotland has strengths in the higher and further education sectors, with three universities in the world top 200 according to the 2025 Times Higher Education World University Rankings.^[75] However, financial pressures on colleges and universities are increasing: across the 14 colleges where there are figures for 2022-23, 11 reported a deficit.^[76] Interviewees viewed the increased numbers of students going into further and higher education in Scotland as a positive achievement. However, they also noted the financial pressures on university and college business models.

Society and culture

The number of people living alone increased by over 100,000 between 2011 and 2022, when over a third (37.1%) of all households in Scotland were single person households.^[77] The biggest increase in loneliness during the pandemic was seen in older adults (aged over 60), whilst groups identified as experiencing the highest rates of loneliness were 16–24-year-olds, disabled people, those on lower incomes and those with a pre-existing mental health condition.^[78] Interviewees expressed concern about the impact this might be having on social cohesion and isolation.

Social media use is growing, including in the youngest age groups. The 2022 Health Behaviour in School Age Children (HBSC) Scotland study found that girls were more likely to spend time on social media than boys (3.2 hours per day compared with 2.5 hours).^[79] Social media use has been linked to poor mental health and wellbeing for young people, as well as to exposure to online harms. At the same time, other evidence suggests that social media can support wellbeing through connection.^[80] Interviewees expressed concern about the impacts of social media on young people in particular.

The shift to online platforms is also changing how people consume media; in the UK 48% of young people aged 16-24 tuned in to broadcast TV in an average week in 2023, down from 76% in 2018.^[81] The use of AI in creative sectors has increased, creating concern about the potential for AI to use or duplicate the work of human creators without their consent, or to replace their jobs altogether.^[82] Interviewees told us that technology such as AI is changing art and culture and the impacts of this are uncertain. Others talked about the value of the culture sector for Scotland’s economy and communities.

Infrastructure and housing

Housing affordability is a significant challenge, especially for low-income households renting privately. In 2022-23, the median ratio of housing costs to net unequivalised household income was 23% for households in the social rented sector and 22% for those in the private rented sector, compared with 6% for those owning with a mortgage.^[83]

Interviewees told us about the significant future infrastructure demands that Scotland will face and the importance of investment in economic and social infrastructure. A recent EY Parthenon report identifies five major areas that will demand significant infrastructure investment in the coming decades: the energy transition, the demographic transition, upgrades to economic infrastructure, defence and strategic capabilities including supply chains, and technology. The report identifies £1.6 trillion of UK infrastructure and capital projects to 2040 that are currently unfunded.^[84] Scottish Government capital funding is set to increase over the next period: the capital budget in 2029-30 is expected to be 6% larger in real terms than in 2024-25.^[85] Audit Scotland reports that a number of factors, such as labour market shortages, inflation and supply chain issues have increased construction costs in recent years and have put pressure on the Scottish Government’s ability to deliver public infrastructure investment.^[86]

2.4 Technology

AI and emerging technologies

The use of AI technology is growing rapidly across many sectors and is likely to have an important role in healthcare and education reforms.^[87] The impacts of AI for business and for wider society are uncertain. A 2024 Deloitte survey found 79% of business leaders expected generative AI to drive substantial transformation over the next three years.^[88] Other analysis suggests adoption will depend on many factors including cost, accessibility, ease of integration and scalability.^[89]

Governments and others are concerned about how to manage the potential harms of generative AI, identifying risks of malicious use and malfunction, and systemic risks, such as labour market disruption, environmental risks and risks of deepening inequality. AI applications may have the potential to reduce or exacerbate inequalities depending on how they are designed, controlled and applied. Many experts talked about the growth of AI and noted areas where it could be used positively, such as healthcare and combating climate change. Others were more cautious about its potential benefits and risks.^[90]

The development of quantum technology is gathering pace and Scotland is seen as important for the development of quantum technology in the UK, with Scotland leading two of the five Quantum Hubs announced by the UK Government in 2024.^[91] Whilst the development of quantum technology could increase resilience, it may also pose a national security risk, potentially leading to an arms race whereby quantum will both strengthen encryption/cybersecurity and enable more sophisticated cyberthreats.^[92]

Scotland is a significant player in the global space industry; interviewees noted that the space sector was likely to be very important in the next 10-20 years for Scotland. The number of space businesses in Scotland has increased by more than 65% since 2016^[93] and the sector has recorded a consistent 12% growth since 2016, contributing 14% to the UK space economy in 2020.^[94] Space assets and capabilities support critical civilian and military infrastructure, which makes them a potential target for hostile actions.^[95]

Green technologies and life sciences

There is growing focus and effort towards using technology to support the energy transition and net zero ambitions. Some interviewees noted the opportunities for Scotland in utilising green technologies to achieve net zero, especially in relation to Scotland’s space sector. However, there were experts who urged caution about the ability of AI to help mitigate climate change, given its high energy requirements. Scotland has a strong and growing industrial biotechnology community^[96] and is already leading in development and use of environmentally conscious and sustainable space technologies.^[97]

Scotland has one of the biggest life sciences sectors in Europe.^[98] Output in the sector increased by 11.6% in quarter four 2024 compared with quarter four 2023, with output across the economy as a whole increasing by 1.7%.^[99] But as technology develops at pace, there are ethical and privacy concerns to consider. Currently, genomic data is regulated by a mixture of regulations and laws, resulting in a lack of clarity on data protection issues for organisations and the public.^[100] Interviewees told us that the life sciences sector in Scotland was well placed to continue growing but warned that this would require sustained investment.

Global technology companies and data

Multinational technology companies are dominating markets, with increasing focus on regulation to support competition, online safety, data protection and consumer rights.^[101] Interviewees raised concerns about the growth in multinational technology companies and the impacts this would have on issues such as data security and equalities, particularly relating to AI. Many focused on the need for regulation, though some saw opportunities for Scotland through increased investment.

Society continues to become increasingly digitalised with more services being provided online. Technological innovation is driving change in how people work, supporting increased collaboration and integration of services. Digital infrastructure has been improving over time in Scotland; 62% of Scottish homes had access to full-fibre broadband as of July 2024, an increase of 9% compared with September 2023, and up from 41% in 2022 and 10% in 2019.^[102] The digital revolution creates opportunities and risks for equalities. Internet and broadband penetration are high and information has never been more freely available. However, digital exclusion remains a concern with around 15% of adults lacking basic digital skills.^[103] Older people, disabled people, people with low incomes and households in rural areas or areas of higher deprivation are more at risk of digital exclusion.^[104]

Increased digitalisation requires more data centres, leading to greater energy use with global data centre electricity usage set to double between 2017 and 2026.^[105] The energy needs of generative AI are particularly high. Interviewees focused on the question of energy use and some saw opportunities for Scotland to become a leader in low-carbon data centres.

Cyber

As people, businesses and public services increasingly rely on online platforms and services, cyber-attacks and cyber-crime have become a major threat to individuals and organisations.^[106] Cyber-threats are constantly evolving, with criminals adopting advances in technology such as AI to automate and accelerate attacks, and to integrate more convincing fraud elements such as deepfakes and impersonation.^[107] Interviewees considered that the risk of cyber-attacks was increasing in complexity and likelihood, especially the potential for attacks on public services. Scotland has seen a rise in sophisticated attacks, including advanced persistent threats, ransomware attacks and sophisticated social engineering tactics.^[108] Cyber-attacks on Scotland’s critical infrastructure pose a significant national security risk. The health sector is prone to cyber-attacks due to the amount of personal information held.^[109] NHS Dumfries and Galloway computer systems were targeted by cyber criminals with sensitive information accessed and subsequently published in 2024.^[110]

2.5 Natural Resources, Energy and Climate Change

Climate change and just transition

Global climate change will lead to further increases in extreme weather events in Scotland. Scotland’s climate is changing faster than predicted, with increasing likelihood of more frequent extreme weather.^[111] Extreme rainfall events could be four times as frequent in the UK by 2080 compared to 1980, reaching almost 10 times more frequent in Northwest Scotland.^[112] Extreme weather events are ranked as the top risk over the next 10 years in the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Report. The impacts of extreme weather may deplete available economic resources to mitigate and adapt to climate change.^[113] Moreover, the impacts of climate change are likely to reflect and drive inequalities. Disadvantaged communities and low-income households may be more vulnerable to the impacts of extreme weather and flooding events. They are more likely to live in poorly protected or insulated homes and to lack the resources for improvement.^[114]

The shift away from fossil fuels will transform Scotland’s infrastructure and economy, increasing the focus on just transition. Interviewees told us about the potential opportunities presented by Scotland’s natural resources and electricity generation. Renewable technologies generated the equivalent of 113% of Scotland’s overall electricity consumption in 2022.^[115] The Scottish Government aims to have capacity to produce five gigawatts of hydrogen by 2030 and 25 gigawatts by 2045, creating up to 300,000 jobs and potentially contributing £5 billion to £25 billion gross value added a year by 2045.^[116] But shifting away from fossil fuels will require infrastructure changes, for example, Scotland’s electricity infrastructure urgently needs more capacity.^[117]

The shift to renewable energy production has huge potential to make energy cheaper as well as cleaner, and to reduce energy poverty. The energy transition may also have negative impacts on individuals and communities dependent on legacy industries, or those affected by development that they do not directly benefit from or control.^[118]

Biodiversity and soils

The potential for multiple global ecosystems to collapse is increasing. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios, with increasing CO2 emissions, the land and ocean carbon sinks are projected to be less effective at slowing the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere.^[119] Biodiversity loss is accelerating, and drivers include: changing use of land and sea, exploitation of organisms, climate change, pollution and invasive species.^[120] Since 1994, the abundance of Scottish species has fallen by 15%. Abundance in 11 species of seabirds declined by 49% between 1986 and 2023.^[121] Interviewees discussed acceleration in biodiversity loss and the impacts of this, as well as drivers for this such as invasive species.

Climate change and land use are creating soil degradation. The estimated annual costs of soil degradation in Scotland from soil sealing and compaction range between £25 million and £75 million, due to reduced crop yield and increased fuel use.^[122] Coastal erosion is expected to affect an increasing proportion of Scotland’s shoreline. Current and anticipated coastal erosion has substantial implications for assets such as residential properties and rail and road infrastructure.^[123]

Water and marine ecosystems

Despite recent improvements in water quality, there are a range of pressures on water ecosystems from different sources of pollution, such as sewage and agriculture. Models to 2049 show almost all of Scotland’s arable land to be in constant climatic water deficit from May to August, with around 70% to 80% projected to be in water stress in September.^[124] Drinking water quality is also expected to decline; Scottish Water assessments indicate that by 2050, over 200 of Scotland’s water sources will be at higher risk of deteriorating raw water quality, with upland reservoirs becoming increasingly vulnerable to organic matter.^[125] Interviewees felt that water is a valuable resource for Scotland – both a source of opportunity and a risk if we fail to manage our resources.

Three high-intensity stressors are putting pressure on marine ecosystems: increased global temperatures, ocean acidification and increased deoxygenation.^[126] Impacts are already being seen across the Scottish marine ecosystem and the rise in sea temperature is causing changes in species distribution.^[127] Pollution and contaminants are affecting marine ecosystems globally; in Scotland 1,000 tonnes of macroplastic and 250 tonnes of microplastic are littered in Scottish seas per year.^[128]

Land, food and waste

Concern about food security and production is increasing due to geopolitical pressures and the impacts of climate change. Global supply chains are vulnerable to geopolitical volatility. For example, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was particularly disruptive to energy and grain supplies with significant consequences for global and UK food security, including widespread increases in food prices.^[129] The UK relies on food imports for roughly 40% of its food.^[130] Countries critical to the global supply of specific food products are vulnerable to extreme weather events, for example, soybean production is highly concentrated in Argentina, Brazil and the US.^[131]

Changes in land use are increasingly contributing to the climate and biodiversity crises; agriculture is important for food security but also the biggest global driver of deforestation, causing almost 90% of global deforestation.^[132] Interviewees told us how land use could be used to mitigate climate change and reduce emissions but highlighted some of the challenges too.

Globally, plastic waste is projected to almost triple by 2060, with OECD countries projected to double their plastics use. Half of all plastic waste is still projected to be landfilled, and less than a fifth recycled.^[133] E-waste is the fastest growing category of waste and the UK is currently the world’s second top producer of e-waste per person.^[134] Interviewees noted the likely impact of waste and pollution on Scotland. Some saw opportunities linked to the circular economy.

2.6 Health

Population health

By 2043, the annual disease burden in Scotland is projected to increase by 21% compared with 2019.^[135] Multimorbidity is also increasing, making the management of disease more complex.^[136], ^[137] Health inequalities have widened in the past decade. In the most deprived areas, people spend more than a third of their life in poor health compared to around 15% of their life in the least deprived areas.^[138]

Interviewees reflected on Scotland’s population becoming less healthy and the drivers for this, including population ageing, culture and inequalities. They argued for greater focus on prevention with key groups.

The proportion of Scottish adults living with obesity is higher than ever before; between 2003 and 2023, the proportion of adults living with obesity increased from 22% to 30% for men, and from 26% to 34% for women.^[139] Amongst children, while 17% are at risk of obesity, the consumption of fruit and vegetables has grown, and of non-diet fizzy drinks has fallen.^[140] Interviewees felt that there are opportunities to respond to obesity through increased focus on prevention and the new generation of obesity medicines.

Use of cigarettes has declined in Scotland; cigarette smoking fell from 26% of adults in 2008 to 14% in 2023.^[141] However, use of vapes is increasing, particularly among young people. Rates of use rose among adults in Scotland between 2021-23, doubling from 3% to 6% in the least deprived areas, and rising from 12% to 17% in the most deprived areas. The use of vapes is most prevalent among 16-24 year-olds (22%).^[142] Drug-related deaths in Scotland have increased over the past two decades; drug misuse deaths rose from 6.2 per 100,000 population in 2001 to 22.4 in 2023.^[143] In 2023, rates of drug misuse deaths were 15 times higher for those living in the most deprived areas than in the least deprived areas.^[144]

Infectious diseases

Vaccine hesitancy is rising, and immunisation uptake is declining in Scotland. Overall levels of childhood immunisation uptake remain high, although there has been a gradual decline from 2014 to 2024.^[145] Uptake of vaccines is lower in areas of higher deprivation.^[146] Interviewees told us about their concerns around vaccine hesitancy, the role of misinformation in reducing uptake and the re-emergence of diseases as a result.

In 2021, an estimated 1.14 million deaths globally were directly attributed to anti-microbial resistance (AMR)^[147] and, if current trends continue, AMR could become the second largest cause of death globally by 2050.^[148] While current data from Scotland suggests that resistance to key antibiotics is currently stable for most organisms^[149], there are risks of antimicrobial resistance arising in other parts of the world where antibiotic use in humans and livestock is increasing.^[150]

The global threat from infectious diseases is concerning, with changing patterns in disease vectors arising from travel, trade and climate change, together with growing antimicrobial resistance and challenges for public health systems in low-resource settings to manage disease outbreaks.^[151] Globally, poverty and inequalities exacerbate the risk of a future pandemic.^[152] Experts asked to rank various pathogens based on their perceived risk of causing a pandemic ranked influenza most highly. Ranked second to influenza was ‘Disease X’, representing a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease.^[153] Interviewees emphasised the need for Scotland to improve and maintain its preparedness to be able to respond quickly to the next pandemic, including one caused by a novel pathogen.

Mental health and neurodiversity

Resolution Foundation analysis of reported symptoms found that the proportion of young people in the UK with a probable common mental health disorder (CMD) has risen rapidly since 2015.^[154] Young women were more likely than men to report symptoms consistent with a probable CMD; in 2021-22, 26% of young men had a probable common mental health disorder compared with 41% of young women.^[155] Evidence for the causes of this apparent decline in mental health is inconclusive. Greater awareness and reduced stigma may also be driving increases in reporting and seeking treatment for mental illness. Interviewees talked about the diverse drivers of increasing rates of mental ill-health in Scotland, reflecting on the role of social media, anxiety about global events such as climate change and increasing openness about mental health issues.

Neurodivergence diagnoses are increasing. New diagnoses of autism in England increased significantly between 1998 and 2018, particularly for adults, primary-age children and females.^[156] The incidence and prevalence of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) diagnoses and prescriptions in England between 2000 and 2018 also increased in almost all age groups.^[157] While Scotland does not have the same focus on formal diagnosis as England, it is likely that prevalence would be similar. In Scotland, 16,000 patients were dispensed at least one medication for ADHD in 2019-20: an increase of 133% since 2010-11.^[158] There has been a rapid increase in the proportion of schoolchildren with an additional support need.^[159] Interviewees spoke about increased public awareness driving a rise in demand for diagnoses of neurodivergence, for both adults and children, as well as the implications of increasing prevalence.

Health systems

The NHS is under pressure, with increasing demand and workforce pressures a major challenge. Interviewees felt that pressures on the health service and on social care are unsustainable and they focused on the need for reform and on how to attract and retain workforce. Health and social care costs accounted for around 33% of the devolved Scottish budget in 2023-24.^[160] Based on current trends, health and social care spending is projected to rise from around 40% of devolved public spending in 2029-30, to almost 55% in 2074-75.^[161] Between 2014 and 2024, the number of NHS Scotland staff increased by 17.4%.^[162] The number of vacancies has been falling since a peak in 2023.^[163]

Interviewees were positive about the potential impact of advances in healthcare, whilst acknowledging some challenges to ensure new treatments are cost-effective and safe. Drug developments could transform outcomes for major diseases; personalised messenger ribonucleic acid (m-RNA) cancer vaccines are being trialled in the UK,^[164] and new drugs to reduce levels of beta-amyloid – thought to underly brain pathology in Alzheimer’s disease – appear to slow cognitive decline.^[165] AI is already being used within NHS Scotland for limited applications, including radiotherapy delivery and medical imaging. Many more potential applications are in development.^[166]