Future Trends for Scotland: findings from the 2024-2025 horizon scanning project

3 . Insights from Horizon Scanning Workshops

Following the development of the trends, the second phase of the Horizon Scanning 2024-25 project focused on external engagements to seek feedback and challenge on the analysis from a range of sectoral experts. In November 2024, around 100 external and Scottish Government stakeholders participated in two series of online workshops to help shape the understanding of the long-term risks and opportunities relating to the identified trends for Scotland.

Workshop One: Key Trends Shaping Scotland

Participants were asked to review the 60 trends and to prioritise them in relation to their likely importance for Scotland and the relative certainty or uncertainty of their impacts. They were then asked to consider the extent to which Scotland has control or influence over the trends, and the underlying assets and deficits that will shape Scotland’s ability to respond to the trends. More details on the Workshop One methodology and findings are provided in ‘Future Trends for Scotland: Project Methodology’.

It was acknowledged that the trends were unequal in their significance, with some trends considered to be ‘foundational’ or cross-cutting – underpinning many aspects of change across thematic boundaries. These included technological changes, changes in the way that people access and share information, demographic changes and climate change.

Trends relating to fiscal sustainability challenges, demographic change, health and housing were considered to have high importance for Scotland. Climate and nature-related trends were ranked as being of very high or highest importance by several of the groups. Groups generally felt that the impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) were highly uncertain for Scotland.

Reflecting the interconnectedness of trends, health trends were often linked together into clusters and/or clustered with the fiscal sustainability trend and/or demographic trends.

Areas where participants felt that Scotland had less control or influence included global economic trends, climate change and AI. Trends over which participants felt Scotland had greater control and influence included education, skills, housing and health – typically areas of devolved Scottish policy. Participants stressed the need for more effective partnerships with other devolved nations and the UK Government, as well as with European and global partners.

Budgetary constraints were acknowledged as limiting Scotland’s ability to respond to – or mitigate – the impacts of trends. Workshop participants suggested that areas for greater investment and commitment included prevention – particularly in relation to public health – and economic, infrastructure, supply chain, and workforce and skills transformation. Ultimately, participants felt that more effective prioritisation and commitment to transformational change would be needed to meet the challenges of the future.

Assets and advantages that participants identified as potentially supporting Scotland’s resilience or opportunities in relation to future trends included:

• Scotland’s small size can support agile working, coordination and connectedness
• Scotland’s political culture and democratic institutions
• Relatively empowered communities and strong third sector/public sector linkages
• Focus on the well-being economy
• Scotland’s positive international reputation
• The education sector
• Scotland’s natural capital
• Creative industries.

Deficits and disadvantages that participants felt could undermine Scotland’s opportunities or resilience in relation to future trends included:

• Fiscal constraints or economic conditions
• Poor population health
• Lack of consideration of business and commerce perspectives in government decision making
• Reactive approach to industrial strategy and development
• Short-term thinking driven by political cycles and political polarisation
• Public polarisation, apathy and lack of trust in government.

Workshop participants noted that how the trends will unfold will partly depend on who is making decisions, and this will reflect concentrations of power, wealth and investment around the world and in the UK and Scotland.

Workshop Two: Key Risks and Opportunities for Scotland

Following Workshop One, the project team used the feedback from participants to develop a series of ‘trend clusters’ linking trends across different thematic areas, and reflecting discussions about ‘foundational’ and high importance trends.

The nine trend clusters identified were:

• Climate change and eco-system collapse
• Fiscal sustainability and public services
• Geopolitical challenges – Scotland in an uncertain geopolitical environment
• Lifelong learning, education and skills
• Mental health, wellbeing and loneliness
• Mis- and disinformation, trust, democracy and polarisation
• Population, ageing and health
• The adoption of AI is increasing
• Wealth, inequality and socio-economic wellbeing.

Participants were invited to discuss how these trend clusters might play out across sectors and into the longer-term future, integrating consideration of inequalities. The Workshop Two approach and findings are described in more detail in ‘Future Trends for Scotland: Project Methodology’.

The discussions on the trend clusters were wide-ranging, reflecting the participants’ wide range of expertise in each discussion. A number of cross-cutting themes emerged across several different cluster discussions.

Education and skills

Education and skills were a focus for several different discussions. Emerging themes included: how to support education and reskilling across a longer working life; how education and skills training need to adapt to reflect areas of future opportunity for Scotland, such as digital/AI/cyber technology and the green economy etc; and education as a basis for building resilience to the impacts of some of the negative future trends, for example, education to support critical thinking to address mis- and disinformation. Participants noted that investment and reform in education and skills will be needed to enable Scotland to respond to these challenges and opportunities.

Demand and prevention

Several discussions acknowledged the tensions between the need for investment to meet current demand and immediate challenges, versus the need for investment in long-term prevention and other activities that could support demand reduction. Discussions focused on the mechanisms for addressing the anticipated increased demand for healthcare as the population ages. Questions about the sustainability of public services and the need for public investment to tackle long-term problems featured in several of the cluster discussions. The role of technology and of community-based approaches as part of the solution to these challenges were frequently mentioned.

Climate change

All of the Workshop Two cluster discussions touched on climate change in some way. Key themes included: the implications of climate change for infrastructure, agriculture and food security in the UK and Scotland and the opportunities presented by the energy transition for sectors, such as green energy and housing improvements. Participants considered opportunities for Scotland to leverage existing expertise and infrastructure to develop world-leading skills and assets in the green economy, and recognised that responding to the risks and opportunities relating to climate change will require significant investment.

Mis- and disinformation, trust and polarisation

The themes of mis- and disinformation, social and political polarisation and trust in public institutions arose across several of the cluster discussions. Participants articulated concerns about the links between polarising discourses and decreasing trust in governments , politicians, public institutions or media and the potential increasing divergence between citizens’ views and understandings in relation to key topics of public concern and interest, such as migration, climate change and healthcare.

Technological change and artificial intelligence

Technology was a key cross-cutting theme, with many discussions focusing on AI. Technological change including AI was identified as having significant potential to support improvements in public services and economic growth, while also posing currently undefined potential risks, for example, as a result of job losses, or through the evolving reach and severity of cyber-attacks and cyber-crime. Participants articulated the challenges and needs for technology to be better regulated by national governments in order to deliver benefits, while also reducing risks.

Housing

Several discussions covered housing, including: the need to improve and retrofit the existing housing stock to achieve Scotland’s net zero ambitions; the need for investment in housing for an ageing population; and the need for social and affordable housing.

Migration

Migration was discussed widely, acknowledging the significant role that it may have in the future in addressing workforce shortages in key sectors such as health and social care, or the green economy, and for the sustainability of the higher and further education sectors. Participants noted the divergence of public perceptions in relation to migration and the rise of support for anti-immigration movements and political parties in the UK and across Europe, which may drive social and political polarisation in the future. Participants also acknowledged the potential for ongoing tension in the future between Scotland’s position on migration and UK immigration policy.

Inequality

All of the Workshop Two discussions acknowledged that tackling inequalities posed particular challenges in the longer term, and that many of the trends have the potential to worsen or create new forms of inequality.