Expansion of funded early learning and childcare to 1140 hours: 2018-2025 national outcomes evaluation

7. Discussion and conclusion

In late 2014, the Scottish Government set out a commitment to almost double the hours of funded ELC from 600 to 1140 hours per year by the end of the next parliament. The primary aims of the ELC expansion were to improve outcomes for children in Scotland, and to contribute to reducing the poverty-related outcomes gap. It was also intended to contribute to meeting child poverty targets through increasing parental employment, and to help support family wellbeing. A substantial programme of evaluation between 2018 and 2025 has assessed the extent to which the ELC expansion has realised these outcomes. However, the COVID-19 pandemic affected the childcare sector and implementation of the ELC expansion. More significantly, the pandemic and cost-of-living crisis have placed considerable pressure on families and negatively affected the same outcomes that the expansion aims to improve.

The Scottish Government and local authorities delivered 1140 hours of funded ELC by August 2021. Indeed, a majority of local authorities chose to implement expanded hours as planned during 2020-21. The 2018 multi-year funding agreement was crucial in the delivery of the commitment. This brought annual public spend on ELC to £990 million by 2021-22. While getting the buildings and staff needed to offer the increased hours in place was highlighted as a key risk during planning, most of the planned infrastructure projects were successfully completed, the ELC workforce was significantly expanded, and local authorities and funded providers worked together to offer flexibility to families.

Delivery of high quality, accessible, flexible, affordable ELC – are the foundations in place?

As set out in Chapter 5, ELC provision must be of high quality to support children’s development. In Scotland, most settings providing funded ELC (89% in 2024) achieve all grades of good or better in assessments of quality. There was a fall in the percentage of services with very good and excellent evaluations (by 14 percentage points to 32%), although this may have been affected by changes to the inspection approach. Given the period of significant change and disruption for the sector, with the ELC expansion and the pandemic, it is encouraging that overall quality has remained high. In addition, most parents (91% in 2024) are very or fairly satisfied with the funded ELC provision they receive, with the proportion who were very satisfied increasing between 2018 and 2024 (from 57% to 72%).

The number of teachers, graduates, and those working towards relevant degree level qualifications has increased substantially over the period of the expansion (by 39%, from 4,230 FTE in 2017 to 5,898 in 2025). Although the number of teachers working in funded ELC has declined, overall the workforce is increasingly highly qualified, which is critical to maintaining and improving quality of provision.

While sufficient capacity was in place to deliver the ELC expansion, challenges have been highlighted in relation to ongoing recruitment and retention of qualified staff – particularly for the private and third sector – and the sustainability of private and third sector providers. Sector representative bodies highlight challenges with private sector settings training staff who then move to public sector roles for better pay and conditions (NDNA, 2022; Audit Scotland, 2023). Local authorities have also highlighted financial challenges in terms of ELC delivery. These challenges provide important context in interpreting the trends in quality of funded ELC and will be key to monitor, given that quality is critical to achieving positive outcomes for children. This may be particularly important within the private sector as the proportion of private sector settings achieving grades of good or better is lower than for other types of setting.

In general, there have been improvements in aspects of accessibility and flexibility of funded ELC between pre- and post-expansion. The data suggest that almost all parents are aware of the availability of funded ELC and the majority do not experience issues accessing it. Flexibility of funded ELC – in terms of settings operating outside of term time hours or school holidays and greater choice in session length – improved between pre- and post-expansion. Most parents also report being satisfied with the flexibility they have been offered to use their funded hours in a way that meets their family's needs.

A minority of parents have experienced issues with the accessibility and flexibility of the ELC provision they are offered, which is important when considering whether the policy is working sufficiently well for families in all areas and circumstances. While most parents in the 2022 and 2025 surveys were positive about the 1140 hours offer, some parents had problems with there being insufficient ELC places available or finding an ELC place with their preferred local provider or in a convenient location. Around a fifth of parents have a child with an ASN. A substantial minority (35% in 2025) of these parents report experiencing difficulties accessing suitable provision – although this has decreased from 48% in 2017.

While flexibility has improved overall, there remains considerable variation between local authorities in ELC provision outside school hours. Some of this variation may be due to local circumstances and demand, but issues with aspects of flexibility – in particular that the hours/sessions offered did not meet their needs – were reported by a minority of parents as barriers to accessing their full entitlement. Where hours offered do not meet needs, this may affect whether parents can work or the hours they can work, as discussed by some parents in the 2025 qualitative research.

There is also evidence that the ELC expansion is making additional hours of ELC accessible to those who could not previously afford to pay for them, and reducing the overall costs of ELC for many parents. Overall, as would be expected given the significant increase in funded hours, the evidence suggests that, post-expansion, fewer families were having to pay for additional hours of ELC to meet their needs, and families were paying for fewer additional hours.

A substantial minority of parents of children under school age who paid for ELC are still experiencing some difficulties with affordability. These findings align with other research in Scotland that identify the costs of childcare as a concern, particularly in the context of the cost-of-living crisis (Scottish Women’s Budget Group, 2023; Hodges et al., 2024; Stone, 2024). This suggests that, while the funded offer has made a difference for families, the overall childcare system may not be meeting the needs of all families.

Whether families take up the additional available hours of funded ELC is a key short-term indicator of the expansion’s success. It is also a fundamental foundation for achieving outcomes for children, parents and families. Take-up of funded ELC for three- and four-year-olds remained near universal over the evaluation period. Looking at take-up of the expanded hours, while there is no one definitive source of data, several data sources suggest that most families of three- and four-year-olds are using their full entitlement. While there have been some improvements in take-up among two-year-olds, further progress is needed in terms of both overall take-up and hours. Take-up among two-year-olds eligible for funded ELC remains lower than the Scottish Government would like (55% in 2025), with considerable variation between local authorities. Two-year-olds are also less likely to be accessing the full 1140 hours than older children. While some parents choose not to take up any (or all) of the full 1140 hours of funded ELC, as highlighted above, accessibility and flexibility are barriers for others.

Overall, the evidence considered in the evaluation suggests that, for the most part, the ELC expansion is delivering quality, flexibility, and accessibility for families, and reducing the overall costs of ELC. As such, the foundations identified in the logic model as required to achieve the desired high-level outcomes are in place. There are, however, ongoing risks and more to do in some areas. In addition to the workforce, sustainability, and quality challenges mentioned above, work is also required to further increase take-up among eligible two-year-olds. More also needs to be done to ensure that all children with ASN can access funded ELC that meets their needs and that there is sufficient choice and flexibility for parents across all local authorities.

To what extent has the ELC expansion improved outcomes for children, parents and families over 2018-2025?

Data from the SSELC provide limited evidence to date for progress on most of the key child outcomes that the expansion of funded ELC seeks to improve. No improvements have been observed in the cognitive and language development, or social, emotional, and behavioural development of ELC leavers. The SSELC did, however, show a positive association between the expansion of funded ELC and the social, emotional, and behavioural development of eligible two-year-olds. It is important to bear in mind that the evaluation was of the increase in funded hours, not the impact of ELC in general on children’s outcomes. Also, it is important to remember that the evaluation measured children’s development in the shorter-term, at age three, after one year of ELC for Eligible 2s, and at age four and five near the end of funded ELC.

The findings from the SSELC over this period are broadly consistent with trends seen in other data in Scotland and findings from a range of studies. During the pandemic, families were unable to access many public services and protective public health measures significantly restricted social contact. A recently-published analysis of routine child health reviews (covering all children in Scotland) between January 2019 and August 2023, as part of the CHILDS study, concluded that COVID-19 public health and social measures were associated with increased developmental concerns among children aged 13–15 months and 27–30 months in Scotland (Hardie et al., 2026). These increases levelled off after the measures were removed, but the proportion of children with developmental concerns remained higher than pre-pandemic.

This is generally in line with trends in other high-income countries. Recent systematic reviews of international research – primarily in Ireland, Italy, Germany, the US, Canada and China – have shown a pattern of increases in emotional and behavioural difficulties in young children (Alcon et al., 2024), and that exposure to the pandemic had an impact on young children’s language and communication development (O'Connor et al., 2025). Meanwhile a meta-analysis of international studies – including from the UK, Europe, North America and China – estimated that there has been a threefold increase in the prevalence of emotional and behavioural problems in young children compared to pre-pandemic (Jing et al., 2024). The ELC expansion evaluation findings must be viewed in the context of these wider trends related to the pandemic and cost-of-living crisis.

The use of informal childcare and unfunded ELC also have to be considered when looking at children’s and parents’ outcomes. The changes in overall childcare use are more complex than an increase from 600 to 1140 hours per year. Instead, there is wide variation between families in the mix of childcare used, and, in particular this varies by income. Where parents would have been willing to pay for extra hours of ELC pre-expansion, but did not do so post-expansion, any effect of the expansion on outcomes is likely to be limited. The data suggest that a substantial minority of families were using funded ELC where they would have previously paid for ELC, particularly high-income households, following the expansion. It is not possible from the data collected to calculate precisely the extent to which the ELC expansion resulted in the Scottish Government funding ELC that would have been paid for privately versus additional ELC that families would have been unable to, or not chosen to, pay for in the absence of the expansion.

In terms of parental outcomes, the evaluation provides evidence of an increase in the proportion of mothers of children receiving funded ELC who are in employment, training, or full-time education since the ELC expansion. The SSELC showed a large increase among mothers of ELC Leavers in both the proportion in employment, and the proportion in employment, training, or full-time education. This was most evident among those in the lowest-income group, with a notable increase in part-time employment. At the same time, among those in higher income groups, there was a shift from part-time to full-time employment. After a year of funded ELC, mothers of the Eligible 2s were also more likely to be in full-time employment post-expansion. These are particularly notable findings in relation to tackling child poverty, as income from employment is one of the three key drivers of poverty identified in the Child Poverty Delivery Plans.

Increased hours of funded ELC may give many parents more time to take up employment opportunities, but it is not the only contributing factor. The expansion of funded ELC took place during a period of high employment rates and substantial change in the labour market (including the impacts of the pandemic and increased home working). However, the employment rate of all women aged 16 to 64 in Scotland remained relatively constant over the same period (Scottish Government, 2025g). This was also true for women of similar ages to most of those using funded ELC – employment rates for women aged 25-34 were 78% in 2019 and 79% in 2024, and for women aged 35-49 the employment rate was 80% in both years (ONS, 2026). In addition, evidence from Scotland and the UK shows that women, particularly young women and mothers, experienced disproportionate labour market disruption during the pandemic. In Scotland, survey data from Close the Gap (2022) found that women faced elevated job losses, reduced hours, and increased unpaid care demands. In the UK, data from the ONS (2022) show that while mothers’ employment remained relatively high overall in 2021, mothers were more likely to work from home and rely on flexible arrangements. Further, when asked directly in the SSELC and parent surveys, a majority of parents agreed that because their child was in nursery they had been able to work or look for work, which supports a conclusion that the increase in mothers’ employment is due to the ELC expansion.

Finally, the SSELC data provide little evidence for an improvement in parental wellbeing, parental confidence and capacity, or family wellbeing over the period covered by this evaluation. For parents of ELC Leavers, there was no change in average life satisfaction, while average mental wellbeing declined post-expansion compared with pre-expansion. These findings echo trends observed in the wider population over this period, as reported in the Scottish Health Survey (Scottish Government, 2025f). Life satisfaction has fluctuated but with no clear pattern over time. Mental wellbeing fell slightly during the pandemic and has since returned to pre-pandemic levels for men but not for women. As for children and parents’ outcomes, the findings on family wellbeing must be understood in the context of the period in which data were collected. For many families, the pandemic had a negative impact on household income, and increases in stress and reductions in parental wellbeing have been reported. Furthermore, the cost-of-living crisis that followed the pandemic left more families struggling with their finances and wellbeing (Scottish Government, 2025h). It is also important to highlight that in surveys and qualitative interviews, the majority of parents reported a range of positive impacts that funded ELC had for their child(ren), themselves and their family, including on wellbeing.

Funded ELC is only one of a very wide range of factors that will contribute to parental and family wellbeing, and many aspects of wellbeing are beyond the scope of ELC provision to influence. Additionally, the evidence and pathways for how ELC in general – and expanded ELC in particular – might be expected to contribute to parental confidence and capacity and overall family wellbeing were less well developed than for the other outcomes at the outset of this evaluation. Further work to define these outcomes and better understand the pathways through which ELC may influence them would be beneficial.

To what extent has the expansion benefitted families in more disadvantaged circumstances?

An aim of the expansion of funded ELC to 1140 hours was to reduce the poverty-related gap in children’s outcomes. As such, the offer is targeted so that children from more disadvantaged backgrounds are eligible earlier, at age two. One aim of the evaluation was therefore to assess the impact of the expansion on families experiencing the most disadvantage – which has been measured in a range of ways.

In terms of accessing and taking up funded ELC, there were few differences by level of disadvantage. Among four- and five-year-olds, no difference was found in hours of funded ELC used by household income. Generally, little variation was seen in the quality of services by the SIMD of the ELC service, and no distinct trend over time between deprivation level and quality. The 2025 parent survey indicated that parents living in the most deprived areas were less likely to be satisfied with the quality of their funded ELC – although this was not seen in previous parent surveys or other data sources, so may need further investigation to understand the differing findings.

The SSELC surveys provide no evidence for a closing of the poverty-related gap in child development outcomes since the expansion of funded ELC, when measured by area deprivation or household income. For Eligible 2s, who are largely from low-income households, there was however a significant association between the expansion and an improvement in their social, emotional and behavioural outcomes after their first year of funded ELC.

Data suggest that the expansion has had positive impacts for parental employment, with higher income parents potentially seeing greater benefits. Opportunities to take up work were more likely to be reported by more affluent households, although the majority of parents in lower income households also reported that ELC had helped them work or look for work. Maternal employment has risen across all income groups since the expansion of funded ELC, although for those in the lowest income quintile the proportion of those in work who were working full-time remained the same – compared to an increase in full-time working for those in other income groups. Generally, no difference has been seen between more and less disadvantaged parents in terms of parental or family wellbeing since the expansion.

Limitations of the evaluation and data gaps

Several limitations should be considered when interpreting the evaluation findings. The design of the SSELC means that any changes observed in the outcomes that the expansion of funded ELC is seeking to improve cannot be directly attributed to this policy. In particular, it has not been possible to disentangle the effects of the expansion of funded ELC from other policy and societal changes over the same period, particularly the pandemic and economic shocks. The study is not able to demonstrate what any changes in these outcomes would have been in the absence of the ELC expansion. Nor is it able to compare outcomes for children who received the 1140 hours with a control group who did not, as take-up of funded ELC has been near universal since before the expansion. Another limitation in relation to the SSELC was that response rates for the Eligible 2s sample post-expansion were lower than predicted, reducing confidence that changes seen in the data reflect changes in the real world.

The evaluation strategy aimed to use existing data as far as possible. This does mean that there are areas where there are gaps or weaknesses in the data considered, for example changes made to data collections during the evaluation period. Key gaps identified include:

• the lack of individual child-level data on take-up, meaning that there are limitations to the data on how many hours children are registered for, and how many hours they attend funded ELC, and only very limited information on the characteristics of children registered for funded ELC
• there is not data on all aspects of accessibility and flexibility of funded ELC of interest, and not all of the data that is available is comparable over time
• no regularly-collected, robust data on the experiences and wellbeing of the ELC workforce

Additionally, this report draws together data from a range of sources and providers, sometimes using several sources to provide a picture where no definitive data source exists, which can mean results do not always align. Nevertheless, this remains a significant and detailed evaluation which has collected and analysed a wide range of data to better understand the delivery, take-up, experience, and impact of the expansion of funded ELC.

Conclusion

The Scottish Government, local authorities and funded providers in the private, third, and childminding sectors delivered 1140 hours of funded ELC by August 2021. This was a significant achievement, particularly in the face of a global pandemic.

Most of the foundations identified as required to achieve the desired high-level outcomes are in place. The ELC workforce has grown substantially, with more degree-qualified staff. There are signs that the expansion has supported improvements in pay and sustainability with more workers now receiving at least the real Living Wage and increases to the funding rates paid to funded providers. The quality of ELC provision has remained high throughout the period of expansion, despite significant external challenges. Surveys carried out with parents before, during, and after the expansion show that parents have largely welcomed the additional hours of funded ELC, which have improved flexibility, accessibility and affordability. Take-up of the funded offer has been high throughout this period. However, some challenges remain which will be important to address to ensure that funded ELC is of a consistently high quality, provision is sufficiently accessible and flexible to meet the needs of children and families, and to safeguard the long term sustainability of sector and workforce.

This evaluation was focused on the period 2018 to 2025. It has identified an increase in employment for mothers of children attending funded ELC across all income groups during this time. While the existing evidence base on the impact of high quality ELC on children’s outcomes is clear, limited progress has been seen for children’s outcomes or family wellbeing over this period. While wider evidence, both international and from Scotland, underlines that the pandemic and cost-of-living crisis have affected children’s outcomes, maternal employment and family wellbeing, it was not possible to draw out the level of those impacts directly in the evaluation and hence made it difficult to identify the effects of the expansion.

From the outset of the ELC expansion, experts who advised on the design of the evaluation methodology (McAdams et al., 2017) recognised that the outcomes would follow different trajectories, with the high-level outcomes also needing to be considered over a longer timeframe. This is reflected in the underlying logic models, which show progression through shorter-term outcomes for children and parents to long-term outcomes for children, families and society. It is, therefore, still relatively early in the implementation of this significant public sector reform and it may take some time to see evidence of any longer-term impacts. This is both in terms of potential impacts for children still to enter ELC, and potential impacts throughout the school years and beyond for the cohort of children who have already experienced increased funded ELC. It will be important for the Scottish Government to carefully consider how best to monitor the outcomes of the ELC expansion for children, families and the childcare sector over the longer term taking into account the learnings for evaluation design and wider social, economic, and political factors from the current evaluation.