Expansion of funded early learning and childcare to 1140 hours: 2018-2025 national outcomes evaluation

1. Introduction and background

1.1 Introduction

This is the overarching report on the national programme of evaluation from 2018 to 2025 of the expansion of funded early learning and childcare (ELC) in Scotland to 1140 hours. It synthesises and presents the main findings across all the strands of research and analysis that together form the outcomes evaluation.

1.2 The ELC expansion to 1140 hours

From August 2021, the entitlement to funded early learning and childcare in Scotland increased from 600 to 1140 hours per year for all eligible children (see Appendix B for definitions of key terminology). This means that families can access around 30 hours of funded ELC per week if used only in term time, or 22 hours per week when spread across the year.

The expansion to 1140 hours followed a number of smaller expansions since the introduction of universal government-funded ‘pre-school education’ in 2002. While the statutory entitlement to 1140 hours came into force from August 2021, expanded provision was phased in over the four years preceding this. Full statutory implementation was delayed from August 2020 by the COVID-19 pandemic, which, alongside the cost-of-living crisis, coincided with early implementation of the policy and had a significant impact on ELC providers, families and children. The expansion was planned and delivered in close partnership with the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities (COSLA) and local authorities, who continue to be integral to its realisation.

Local authorities in Scotland currently offer funded ELC to all three- and four-year-olds and eligible two-year-olds. Two-year-olds are eligible if they or their parent are care-experienced, or if the household receives qualifying benefits. Local authorities can also provide discretionary access to funded ELC to any other child, as they see fit.

The primary aims of the ELC expansion were to improve outcomes for children in Scotland, and to contribute to reducing the poverty-related outcomes gap. These aims were based on UK and international research showing that all children, and especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds, can benefit in terms of social, emotional, and educational outcomes from attending high quality ELC provision (Melhuish et al., 2015; OECD, 2017; Scobie and Scott, 2017; European Commission, 2022). Targeted, early access to funded ELC for two-year-olds was provided based on this evidence, with the aim that they are more likely to achieve similar outcomes to their peers. The evidence base is, however, not conclusive on the optimal number of hours or model of ELC for achieving these benefits for children. The ELC expansion has also been an important element of the Scottish Government’s Tackling Child Poverty Delivery Plans for 2018-22 and 2022-26 (Scottish Government, 2018a; 2022a). It is expected to help meet child poverty targets through both increasing parental employment and reducing living costs. It is also intended to help support family wellbeing, contribute to reducing the gender pay gap, and Keep the Promise to care experienced children.

1.3 Programme logic model and expected outcomes

The ELC expansion simplified logic model (see Figure 1) sets out the programme’s intended intermediate and high-level outcomes. These outcomes were initially set out in an Evaluability Assessment of the ELC expansion (McAdams et al., 2017). The outcomes were refined and articulated during the development of the Scottish Government’s Strategic early learning and school age childcare plan (2022b), alongside which an evaluation strategy was published (see Section 1.4).

Inputs

• Appropriate funding and governance is provided at national and local authority level

Outputs

• Sufficient capacity is created across Scotland to provide 1140 hours ELC in terms of staff, buildings, etc., including making best use of partner provider capacity

Intermediate outcomes

• Expanded ELC is high quality
• Sufficiently flexible to meet parents’ needs
• Accessible for all and parents are aware of it
• Affordable for all parents
• Take up of expanded ELC is maximised so that it meets the needs of children and families, particularly those who will benefit most
• Increased parental confidence and capacity through enhanced nurture and support

High-level outcomes

• Children's development improves and the poverty-related outcomes gap narrows
• Family wellbeing improves
• Parents' opportunities to take up or sustain work, training, or study increase

The first four intermediate outcomes reflect the core principles of the expansion: that it should deliver ELC that is high quality, flexible, accessible and affordable. The next two intermediate outcomes are for take-up to be maximised, to ensure that eligible families benefit from the provision, and for parents’ and carers’^[1] confidence and capacity (e.g. to engage with their child's learning and enhance the home learning environment) to be increased through the support the programme provides. These intermediate outcomes are essential foundations for achieving the three high-level outcomes on children’s development, parental work, training or study, and family wellbeing.

1.4 The ELC expansion evaluation, 2018-2025

The impact of the ELC expansion on the intended outcomes described above was evaluated via a substantial programme of work that ran from 2018 to 2025. The evaluation programme was based on plans set out in the Scottish Government’s ELC Expansion Evaluation Strategy, published in 2022.

Crucially, the evaluation focuses on the difference that the increase in the number of hours of funded ELC from 600 to 1140 per year has made – as opposed to the impact of ELC or funded ELC in general.

In line with the goals of the ELC expansion, the strategy stated that particular focus would be given to assessing its impact on families experiencing the most disadvantage. The use of the term of ‘disadvantage’ was defined broadly within the expansion plans and is measured in a range of ways in the evaluation. The strategy also highlighted the need to understand any changes in the childcare sector over this period – in terms of its workforce, composition and capacity. This is both because of the potential impact of changes in the sector on the intermediate outcomes and to contextualise any changes observed in families’ outcomes. Finally, the strategy also included an intention to assess the economic costs and benefits of the expansion of funded ELC.

1.5 Purpose and scope of the report

This report synthesises and presents the main findings across all the strands of research and analysis that together form the outcomes evaluation of the ELC expansion to 1140 hours (see Chapter 3 for more detail). It is the final report for the significant programme of work evaluating the intermediate and high-level outcomes of the evaluation for the period 2018 to 2025. It follows an Interim Evaluation Report published in 2024, which focussed on the intermediate outcomes. The purpose of this report is to draw together and summarise the evidence on the extent to which the expansion has met its aims as set out in the Evaluation Strategy. Findings from the economic evaluation will be published once available.