Expansion of funded early learning and childcare to 1140 hours: 2018-2025 national outcomes evaluation

Executive Summary

Background and context

There is strong evidence that the early years of a child’s life are crucial for their social and emotional development, as well as their language and numeracy skills. UK and international research show that all children, and especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds, can benefit in terms of social, emotional and educational outcomes from attending high quality early learning and childcare (ELC) provision. Since 2014, the Scottish Government has undertaken one of the most significant reforms to public service in a generation by almost doubling the statutory entitlement to funded ELC. This was informed by the evidence on the role of ELC, alongside other early years policies, in supporting children’s development.

From August 2021, the statutory entitlement to funded ELC in Scotland increased from 600 to 1140 hours per year for all three- and four-year-olds and eligible two-year-olds. The increase means that eligible families can access around 30 hours of funded ELC per week if used only in term time, or 22 hours when spread across the year. Two-year-old children are eligible for funded ELC if they or their parent or carer are care-experienced, or if the household receives qualifying benefits.

The expansion of funded ELC aimed to improve outcomes for children, increase parents’ and carers’ opportunities to take up work, training or study, and improve family wellbeing. As progress to deliver the expansion was moving into its final stages in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic began. The pandemic had an impact on the childcare sector and implementation of the ELC expansion. More significantly, and as is evident from many other studies, the pandemic and cost-of-living crisis have also placed considerable pressures on families and negatively affected the same outcomes that the expansion aims to improve.

The Scottish Government led a programme of evaluation between 2018 and 2025 to assess the extent to which the ELC expansion has realised these outcomes. The evaluation work set out in the ELC Expansion Evaluation Strategy (2022) consists of three main interrelated strands:

• evaluating the ‘intermediate outcomes’ of accessibility, flexibility, affordability, quality, and take up of funded ELC
• evaluating the contribution of the expansion to the ‘high-level outcomes’ for children, parents and carers, and families
• assessing the economic costs and benefits of the expansion in relation to outcomes for children, parents and carers, and families

This is an overarching report that aims to synthesise and present the main findings from the first two strands of this work, relating to the outcomes of the expansion of funded ELC to 1140 hours over this period. Findings from the third strand, an economic evaluation, will be published once available.

Approach and methods

The evaluation was based on logic models set out in the Evaluation Strategy, which make links between the expansion and expected outcomes. Crucially, the evaluation focuses on the difference that the increase in the number of funded ELC hours has made – as opposed to the impact of ELC in general. The evaluation used a before-and-after study design, drawing on data gathered from different groups of families. It drew on a mix of existing, regularly-collected data, and specifically- commissioned research, including the Scottish Study of ELC (SSELC), and research with parents before, during and after the ELC expansion. Individual reports presenting findings from two of these key data sources are published alongside this report: the SSELC Final Report and ELC parent research 2025.

The SSELC collected the main evaluation data on outcomes for children, parents and carers (from here on referred to as 'parents' for brevity), and families. It gathered data between 2018 and 2024 from children and parents, with the aim to measure and compare outcomes before and after the expansion. During 2018-19, ‘baseline’ data were collected on samples of children and their parents accessing up to 600 hours of funded ELC. During 2023-24, ‘post-expansion’ data were collected on samples of children and their parents accessing up to 1140 hours of funded ELC. SSELC participants were recruited via local authority, private and third sector ELC settings across most local authorities. Data were collected on three groups of children, their parents and ELC settings:

• children who were eligible for funded ELC at age two (the ‘Eligible 2s’) – at both age two and age three – which allowed comparison of the change in outcomes after a year of funded ELC
• a nationally representative sample of all three-year-olds, as a comparison
• four- and five-year-olds about to leave ELC (the ‘ELC Leavers’), to measure outcomes near the end of receiving funded ELC

Limitations of the evaluation approach

Several limitations should be considered when interpreting the evaluation findings. The evaluation does not compare the relative effectiveness of the ELC expansion against other policy options. ELC is only one of many factors that may contribute to the desired outcomes for children and families, and the evaluation cannot demonstrate what any changes would have been in the absence of the expansion. Nor is it able to compare outcomes for children who received the 1140 hours with a control group who did not, as take-up of funded ELC has been near universal since before the expansion. Finally, it has not been possible to disentangle the effects of the expansion from those of the pandemic and other societal changes over the same period. This means that we cannot say with confidence whether any changes over time observed in the evaluation were caused solely by the ELC expansion.

Delivery of the ELC expansion

The 2018 multi-year funding agreement was crucial in the delivery of the commitment. This brought annual public spend on ELC to £990 million by 2021-22, as well as providing total capital funding of £476 million. Despite the pandemic, the Scottish Government and local authorities delivered the expansion of funded ELC by August 2021. Most of the planned infrastructure projects were successfully completed, the ELC workforce was significantly expanded, and local authorities and funded providers worked together to offer flexibility to families in time for statutory implementation of the expansion of funded ELC in August 2021. Local authorities were able to offer funded ELC to all eligible children who applied for a place of up to 1140 hours by this time – a significant achievement for the childcare sector, particularly in the face of a global pandemic.

Key findings – capacity to provide 1140 hours

• Care Inspectorate data show that the overall capacity of daycare of children services (e.g. the number of available places) increased substantially over the period of the expansion (from 165,010 places in 2016 to 179,580 in 2024).
• The increase in capacity has been primarily driven by an increase in the number and capacity of nurseries. The capacity of children and family centres and playgroups fell, and the number and capacity of childminding services substantially declined over this period.
• The number of services providing funded ELC places has also increased during the expansion (from 2,514 in 2016 to 2,630 in 2021, falling slightly again to 2,558 in 2025). The proportion of children registered for funded ELC at private or third sector services increased from 24% in 2016 to 32% in 2025.
• Scottish Social Services Council data show that the funded ELC workforce has increased substantially (by 42%) since before the expansion, from 25,580 in 2016 to 36,200 in 2024. The public sector's share of this workforce has also increased from 49% in 2016 to 57% in 2024.
• Surveys of local authorities show that between 2017-18 and 2024-25, the average rate paid by local authorities to private and third sector providers for the delivery of funded ELC to three- to five-year-olds increased by around 78%, from £3.68 per hour to £6.55 per hour.
• Surveys of local authorities and providers show that recruiting and retaining staff was a key challenge for all types of providers, especially those in the private and third sector. Private and third sector providers also reported concerns about financial sustainability. Additionally, local authorities raised concerns around pressures on funding.

Key findings – intermediate outcomes

The logic model set out intermediate outcomes, or essential foundations, that would need to be in place to achieve the high-level outcomes for children, parents and families. The evidence suggests that, for the most part, these foundations are in place. However, there are ongoing risks and more to do in some areas.

Quality of funded ELC provision

• Most settings providing funded ELC (89%) achieved all grades of good or better in Care Inspectorate quality evaluations in 2024, although there has been a slight decrease (from 91%) since 2016. There has also been a fall in the percentage of services with very good and excellent evaluations over the same time period. It should be borne in mind when interpreting data on quality gradings that the Care Inspectorate quality framework and inspection model have changed since 2020.
• The proportion of private sector settings achieving all grades of good or better (81% in 2024) is lower than for the public and third sectors (93% and 87%).
• The number of teachers, graduates, and those working towards relevant degree level qualifications has increased substantially over the period of the expansion (by 39%, from 4,230 FTE in 2017 to 5,898 in 2025).
• Data from the Scottish Household Survey show that most parents (91%) were satisfied with the general funded ELC provision they received in 2024, similar to previous years. There was, however, an increase in the proportion of parents reporting they were very satisfied: from 57% in 2018 to 72% in 2024.
• Most (88%) respondents to a 2025 parent survey were satisfied with the quality of funded ELC provision. However, this compares to 97% in 2022.

Challenges in relation to ongoing recruitment and retention of staff, and the sustainability of private and third sector providers, are important context in interpreting the trends in quality of funded ELC.

Accessibility and flexibility of funded ELC provision

In general, findings on accessibility and flexibility of funded ELC are positive – indicating improvements since the expansion – and parents report satisfaction with the ELC offer.

• The data considered indicate that awareness of the availability of funded ELC is high and has improved since the expansion.
• In surveys, only a very small proportion of parents report transport difficulties with accessing funded ELC (less than 5%).
• Of the 18% of respondents to the parent survey who had a child with Additional Support Needs (ASN), a substantial minority report experiencing difficulties accessing funded ELC (around 35% in 2025). This was lower than in 2017 (around 48%).
• More settings are now operating outside of school hours or term time (63% in 2024, compared with 50% in 2016) – although there is substantial variation between local authorities (from 33% to 98% in 2024).
• Most parents (90% of those with a three- to five-year-old in 2025) report being satisfied with the flexibility they have been offered to use their funded hours in a way that met their family's needs. However, aspects of flexibility are an issue for a minority of parents in terms of accessing their full entitlement.

Take-up of funded ELC

• Overall take-up of funded ELC has remained near universal for three- and four-year-olds. An estimated 55% of eligible two-year-olds were registered for funded ELC in 2025. This is an increase from 2023, but a small decline from 2024, and varies by local authority.
• There is no one definitive data source on the hours of funded ELC families are using. Data from several sources suggest that most (almost 9 in 10) three- to five-year-olds using funded ELC are using the full 1140 hours. In comparison, two-year-olds are less likely to be using the full entitlement (just over 7 in 10).
• While some parents choose not to take up any or all of the funded hours, a minority of parents report that accessibility and flexibility are barriers.

Use of other childcare and affordability of ELC

Several data sources indicate that, post-expansion, funded ELC has replaced ELC that some parents would have previously paid for themselves. There is evidence that the ELC expansion is helping many parents with the costs of ELC, but challenges with overall affordability of ELC remain.

• Data from surveys of parents indicate a large increase in the proportion of families using only funded ELC post-expansion (from 16% pre-expansion to 47% in 2025). The data also highlight a corresponding reduction in use of additional paid-for ELC.
• SSELC data show that the total ELC (funded and paid-for) used for four- and five-year-old children increased by over a third, on average, post-expansion – from approximately 22 hours a week in 2019 to 30 hours a week in 2024.
• Fewer families with a child aged two to five were having to pay for additional hours of ELC to meet their needs (47% in 2025 compared with 60% in 2018).
• A substantial minority of parents with children under school age who paid for ELC experience some difficulties with affordability (42% in 2025, compared with 69% in 2017).

Key findings – outcomes for children, parents and families

Children’s development and the poverty-related outcomes gap

Overall, the evaluation provides limited evidence to date for progress on the children’s outcomes that the ELC expansion was seeking to improve.

• There is no evidence to date for progress on outcomes related to children’s cognitive and language development since the expansion of funded ELC.
  • For example, the proportion of ELC Leavers whose communication skills were identified as on schedule (i.e. of a level that might be expected for their age) post-expansion (82%) was lower than pre-expansion (88%).
• The evaluation provides mixed evidence on social, behavioural and emotional development for different age groups. While there is no evidence of a positive change for the ELC Leavers to date, there is a positive association between the expansion of funded ELC and the social, behavioural and emotional development of eligible two-year-olds.
  • The proportion of ELC Leavers with few or no social, behavioural and emotional difficulties decreased since the expansion, from 85% to 78%.
  • Pre-expansion, the percentage of eligible two-year-olds with few or no difficulties increased from 44% to 58% after a year of funded ELC. Post-expansion it increased from 41% to 62%.
• There is no evidence for a closing of the poverty-related gap in child development outcomes since the expansion of funded ELC, when measured by area deprivation or household income.

These findings, while showing little or no improvement in children’s outcomes over the period of the evaluation, are broadly consistent with data from multiple other sources that have observed a decline in children’s outcomes across Scotland and the rest of the UK over this period, linking these declines to the effects of the pandemic. International research has also found increases in emotional and behavioural difficulties in young children and that exposure to the pandemic had a negative impact on young children’s language and communication development. Also, some families who would have paid for additional ELC in the absence of the expansion have instead used the additional hours of funded ELC. For these children, we may not expect to see any change in children’s outcomes due to the ELC expansion, as the overall amount of ELC they receive has not changed.

Parental employment

The evaluation provides clear evidence of an increase in the proportion of mothers of children receiving funded ELC who are in employment, training or full-time education since the expansion of funded ELC.

• For mothers of ELC Leavers, the proportion in employment, training or full-time education increased from 76% pre-expansion to 84% post-expansion.
• The proportion in employment increased from 69% to 78% and in full-time employment increased, from 29% to 37%.
• Employment rose for mothers across all income groups. For the lowest income group, the proportion in work increased from 41% pre-expansion to 53% post-expansion. The proportion in full-time work remained at 27% of those in work. For higher income groups, the proportion in work increased from 79% to 83%. The proportion in full-time work increased from 43% to 51% of those in work.

The increase found in maternal employment was during a period of high employment rates and substantial change in the labour market (including the impacts of the pandemic and increased home working). However, the employment rate of all women aged 16 to 64 in Scotland (and for women of similar ages to those using funded ELC) remained relatively constant over the same period. Evidence from Scotland and the UK also shows that women, particularly young women and mothers, experienced disproportionate labour market disruption and increased unpaid care demands during the pandemic period.

Parental wellbeing and confidence and capacity, and family wellbeing

By increasing access to high quality funded ELC and encouraging settings to improve parental involvement in the life of the setting, the ELC expansion sought to further support parental confidence and capacity in engaging with their child’s learning and enhancing the home learning environment. The evidence base on the link between ELC and parental confidence and capacity, and family wellbeing was limited prior to expansion. The evaluation found little evidence of progress in outcomes relating to parental wellbeing, parental confidence and capacity, and family wellbeing since the expansion of funded ELC.

• For the parents of the ELC Leavers, life satisfaction did not change significantly. On average, mental wellbeing declined over the period from before to after the expansion.
• For parents of the Eligible 2s, there was no overall change in mental wellbeing or life satisfaction since the ELC expansion.
• On most of the measures of parental confidence and capacity, and family wellbeing considered by the evaluation there was little change.

The findings on parental wellbeing are in line with data from the Scottish Health Survey, which show that average wellbeing for all adults has not returned to pre-pandemic levels. The wider evidence base shows the negative impact of the pandemic and cost-of-living crisis on families, including on household income, stress and wellbeing. It is noteworthy that in surveys and qualitative interviews, the majority of parents report a range of positive impacts that they perceive the funded ELC offer had for their child(ren), themselves and their family. This includes feeling happier, less stressed, and having more time available to care for others.

Conclusion

The Scottish Government, local authorities and funded providers in the private, third and childminding sectors delivered the new statutory entitlement to 1140 hours of funded ELC by August 2021. This was a significant achievement, particularly in the face of a global pandemic.

Most of the foundations identified as being needed to achieve the aims of the expansion are in place. The ELC workforce has grown substantially, with more degree-qualified staff. There are signs that the expansion has supported improvements in pay and sustainability, with more workers now receiving at least the real Living Wage and increases to the funding rates paid to funded providers. The quality of ELC provision has remained high throughout the period of expansion, despite significant external challenges. Surveys carried out with parents before, during, and after the expansion show that parents have largely welcomed the additional hours of funded ELC, which have improved flexibility, accessibility and affordability. However, some challenges remain which will be important to address to ensure that funded ELC is of a consistently high quality, provision is sufficiently accessible and flexible to meet the needs of children and families, and to safeguard the long term sustainability of sector and workforce.

This evaluation was focused on the period 2018 to 2025. It has identified an increase in employment for mothers of children attending funded ELC across all income groups during this time. While the existing evidence base on the impact of high quality ELC on children’s outcomes is clear, limited progress has been seen for children’s outcomes or family wellbeing over this period. The pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis have provided an extremely challenging context for delivery of the expansion and for families. While wider evidence, both international and from Scotland, is clear that the pandemic and cost of living increases have affected children’s outcomes, maternal employment and family wellbeing, it was not possible to draw out the level of those impacts directly in the evaluation and hence made it difficult to identify the effects of the expansion.

It is still relatively early in the implementation of this significant public sector reform and to identify possible longer-term effects of the ELC expansion. This is both in terms of potential impacts for children still to enter ELC, and impacts throughout the school years and beyond for the cohort of children who have already experienced increased funded ELC. It will be important to carefully consider how best to monitor any outcomes of the ELC expansion for children, families and the childcare sector over the longer term, taking into account learning around evaluation design and wider social and economic factors from the current evaluation.