Coronavirus (COVID-19) business support measures: evaluation
This evaluation assesses the outputs and indicative outcomes of the COVID-19 business support measures available in Scotland up to summer 2021.
Annex 2: OCEA Strategic Framework Sectoral Viability Model Results on Impact on Profitability of Business Support Fund Grants and Sector Specific Grants (where applicable)
At the time of analysis, the extent to which the Strategic Framework Sectoral Viability Model is able to be used to analyse impact of SG grant schemes is relatively limited. However, we can look at the value of key grant schemes in the context of the modelled profitability of the average business by sector and size. Data on take-up of SG grant schemes by sector is improving, and should allow for full sector level modelling of impact for the next iteration of this evaluation.
Tables A10, A11 and A12 show, for the £10,000 small business grant (separate tables are provided for micro and small firms) and the £25,000 retail, hospitality leisure grant separately, the modelled impact of support on the profitability of the average firm in each sector. Each table shows for the average firm in each sector: pre-COVID-19 profitability, profitability with no government support in place, and profitability in the with support from the Business Support Fund (note that this is without the support of CJRS and NDR relief).
| Pre-Covid (£m) | No Support (£m) | BSFG (£10K) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing | 64,766 | 59,564 | 69,564 |
| Mining and quarrying | 3,487,592 | 2,716,137 | 2,726,137 |
| Manufacturing | 89,651 | 70,636 | 80,636 |
| Construction | 102,370 | 68,521 | 78,521 |
| Wholesale, retail, repair of vehicles | 67,704 | 55,303 | 65,303 |
| Transport and storage | 107,073 | 46,612 | 56,612 |
| Accommodation and food services | 29,563 | -21,110 | -11,110 |
| Information and communication | 71,015 | 61,736 | 71,736 |
| Prof, scientific, technical activ. | 77,293 | 66,652 | 76,652 |
| Admin and support services | 95,058 | 61,050 | 71,050 |
| Other service activities | 59,055 | - 3,159 | 6,841 |
Source: OCEA Strategic Framework Viability Model
| Pre-Covid (£m) | No Support (£m) | BSFG (£10K) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing | 562,048 | 510,221 | 520,221 |
| Mining and quarrying | 19,545,888 | 14,333,840 | 14,343,840 |
| Manufacturing | 683,941 | 533,661 | 543,661 |
| Construction | 751,328 | 475,713 | 485,713 |
| Wholesale, retail, repair of vehicles | 549,371 | 449,088 | 459,088 |
| Transport and storage | 687,049 | 279,657 | 289,657 |
| Accommodation and food services | 149,583 | -93,410 | -83,410 |
| Information and communication | 764,165 | 641,384 | 651,384 |
| Prof, scientific, technical activ. | 704,424 | 597,189 | 607,189 |
| Admin and support services | 907,949 | 607,144 | 617,144 |
| Other service activities | 205,145 | -91,110 | -81,110 |
Source: OCEA Strategic Framework Viability Model
| Size | Sector | Pre-Covid (£m) | No Support (£m) | BSFG (£25K) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | Wholesale, retail, repair of vehicles | 305,444 | 232,084 | 257,084 |
| Accommodation and food services | 132,306 | -85,424 | -60,424 | |
| Micro | Wholesale, retail, repair of vehicles | 67,704 | 55,303 | 80,303 |
| Accommodation and food services | 29,563 | -21,110 | 3,890 | |
| Small | Wholesale, retail, repair of vehicles | 549,371 | 449,088 | 474,088 |
| Accommodation and food services | 149,583 | -93,410 | -68,410 | |
| Medium | Wholesale, retail, repair of vehicles | 2,598,204 | 1,989,909 | 2,014,909 |
| Accommodation and food services | 1,052,440 | -461,567 | -436,567 |
Source: OCEA Strategic Framework Viability Model
Contact
Email: caroline.macfarlane@gov.scot
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