Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 11 February 2022

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

This document is part of a collection


Footnotes

1. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

3. Using data to 7 February 2022.

4. No R value was published for the week beginning 27 December 2021 as publications were paused over the festive period. The most recent data point for R is dated 9 February 2022, reflecting the R value as of 25 January 2022.

5. Using data to 7 February 2022.

6. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

7. Using data to 7 February 2022.

8. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

9. A credible interval gives an indication of the uncertainty of an estimate from data analysis based on a sample population. 95% credible intervals are calculated so that there is a 95% probability of the true value lying in the interval.

10. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): infection survey - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

11. The ratios presented are rounded to the nearest 100 if over 1,000, to the nearest 10 if under 1,000, to the nearest 5 if under 100 and to 1 if under 20. This may result in credible intervals that appear to be similar to the estimated average ratio.

12. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): infection survey - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

13. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

14. Ibid.

15. Ibid.

16. The reporting date is when the result of the test is authorised and released to Public Health Scotland by NHS Scotland and UK Government Regional Testing Laboratories.

17. Please note that this is experimental statistics.

18. Public Health Scotland.

19. These figures are produced by Public Health Scotland as "experimental statistics" and may be subject to future revision as the new method for counting combined PCR and LFD tests evolves.

20. The specimen date is the date the sample was collected from the patient.

21. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard

22. Source: Public Health Scotland

23. Source: Public Health Scotland

24. Ibid.

25. Public Health Scotland: PHS COVID-19 Education Report

26. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): daily data for Scotland

27. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Statistical Report

28. Ibid.

29. Results are taken from questions run on behalf of Scottish Government on the YouGov online omnibus survey. Question 'Coronavirus tests typically take two forms – Rapid 'Lateral Flow or LFD' tests (sometimes called Antigen Tests), which give a test result in 30 minutes and are usually self-administered, or PCR Tests mostly conducted at official Test Sites (but also available as a 'Home Kit) – processed by a laboratory, with results available within 48 hours. In both tests, a swab of nose and/or throat is needed. Which of the following applies to you in relation to testing for Covid-19 in the past week (i.e. since 18 January)?'

30. Question -Thinking about the LAST lateral flow/antigen test you did in the past week…Which of the following best describes you in relation to that test? (Base: 550 - All who have taken a Lateral Flow/antigen test in the last week)

31. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

32. The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with circa 1000 responses each week fieldwork is conducted. YouGov apply weighting to the data to match the population profile to adjust for any over/under representations and to maximise consistency from wave to wave. Parameters used include age, gender, social class, region and level of education.

33. The sample is demographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with circa 3000 responses over two alternating panels. This is modelled to represent the Scottish population.

34. Public Health Scotland: Coronavirus (COVID-19): Trends in Daily Data

35. ICU or combined ICU/HDU (with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days). Please note that only patients with length of stay 28 days or less in ICU were recorded until 20 January 2021. From 20 January 2021 ICU short and long stay includes both ICU or combined ICU/HDU with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days.

36. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard

37. Ibid.

38. Covid-19 related admissions have been identified as the following: A patient's first positive test for COVID-19 up to 14 days prior to admission to hospital, on the day of their admission or during their stay in hospital. If a patient's first positive test is after their date of discharge from hospital, they are not included in the analysis. An admission is defined as a period of stay in a single hospital. If the patient has been transferred to another hospital during treatment, each transfer will create a new admission record.

39. Public Health Scotland: PHS COVID-19 Education Report

40. UK Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK (accessed 9 February 2022)

41. Ibid.

42. NRS Scotland: Deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland

43. NRS Scotland: Deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland

44. Ibid.

45. Deaths within 28 days of positive test.

46. UK Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK (accessed 9 February 2022)

47. Uptake rates presented in the analysis use different denominators than those in the Public Health Scotland COVID-19 Daily Dashboard and will show lower rates than the daily publication. The estimates used to calculate population denominators by ethnicity and deprivation are from the CHI registration and may over-estimate the population size as they will include, for example, some individuals no longer resident in Scotland who have not deregistered with a GP in Scotland.

48. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): infection survey

49. UK Government: COVID-19 variants identified in the UK

50. Investigation of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: variant risk assessments - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

51. COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 6, 2021 to 2022) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) – week 6

52. COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 6 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

53. University of Edinburgh: Severity of Omicron variant of concern and vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease

54. Imperial College COVID-19 response team: Report 50: Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England

55. UK Health Security Agency: SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation

56. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard

57. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

58. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

59. Ibid.

60. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

61. Following the announcement removing the need for a confirmatory PCR test in some cases combined PCR and LFD reported date data has been used from 6th January.

Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot

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