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Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 4 February 2022

Published
4 February 2022
From
Director-General Health and Social Care
Directorate
Constitution Directorate
Part of
Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland, Health and social care, Public safety and emergencies
ISBN
9781804350188

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

This document is part of a collection

View supporting documents Supporting documents

Situation by Local Authority within Scotland

Please note that the methodology for comparing case rates between local authorities has changed following the testing policy changes announced on 5 January 2022. Previously this section presented a weekly PCR case rate per 100,000 population by specimen date. This has changed to a weekly case rate based on either only PCR, only LFD or a combined PCR and LFD case rate per 100,000 by reporting date. This means that the results presented in this section are not comparable to previous State of the Epidemic Report publications.

In the week leading up to 2 February 2022, Aberdeen City had the highest combined PCR and LFD weekly case rate by reporting date, reporting 1,320 cases per 100,000 population. Na h-Eileanan Siar had the lowest weekly combined LFD and PCR case rate in the same time period, reporting 279 cases per 100,000. The total combined LFD and PCR weekly case rates by reporting date per 100,000 had increased in 10 local authorities in the week leading up to 2 February 2022 compared with the weekly case rate leading up to 26 January 2022, while 22 local authorities saw a decrease in the same period (Figure 12)[65].

Figure 12: Maps showing weekly total LFD or PCR case rates per 100,000 people in Local Authorities across Scotland, by reporting date
two colour coded maps, the left one showing the new positive total LFD or PCR weekly cases per 100,000 people by reporting date in each local authority in Scotland on 26 January 2022, and the right one showing the same for 2 February 2022. The maps range from grey for under 100 weekly cases per 100,000, through very light blue for 100-500, blue for 500-1,000, darker blue for 1,000-1,500, and very dark blue for over 1,500 weekly cases per 100,000 people.

Please note that the following local authority hotspot modelling uses data to 31 January 2022 from several academic groups to give an indication of whether a local authority is likely to experience high levels of Covid-19. This has been compiled via UKHSA into a consensus. The modelled weekly case rate below is not directly comparable to the weekly case rate reported in the section and figure above.

In less populated regions in which case numbers are small, there is a greater variation in model estimates, and hence increased uncertainty. This has led to one model not being included in the combination for Na h-Eileanan Siar, Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands. Some of the models contributing to this analysis are informed by both PCR and LFD positive tests whilst others are currently informed by PCR only.

Modelled rates of positive tests per 100,000 population indicate that, for the week commencing 13 February 2022, 29 of the 32 local authorities are expected to exceed 50 cases per 100,000 population with at least 75% probability[66]. The exceptions are Na h-Eileanan Siar, Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands.

28 local authorities are expected to exceed 100 cases per 100,000, with at least 75% probability. The exceptions are Moray, Na h-Eileanan Siar, Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands. No local authorities are expected to exceed 300 cases per 100,000, with at least 75% probability[67].

Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot

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