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Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 4 February 2022

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

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Background

This report summarises the current situation of the Covid-19 epidemic in Scotland. It brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the epidemic in Scotland at this point in time, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next. This updates the previous publication published on 28 January 2022[1]. The information in this document helps the Scottish Government, the health service and the wider public sector respond to the epidemic and put in place what is needed to keep us safe and treat people who have the virus.

This edition of the State of the Epidemic summarises current data on Covid-19 at a national and local level, and how Scotland currently compares to the rest of the UK. It looks at the vaccination program in Scotland and its impact. Information is provided about variants of concern and what impact these may have. Bringing this information together in one place gives the opportunity to better understand the current state of the epidemic in Scotland.

The State of the Epidemic report this week will summarise combined LFD and PCR case and test data up to and including 2 February 2022 . The rest of the analysis will also cover up to and including 2 February 2022 for consistency, when available.

Due to a technical error at Public Health Scotland, PCR cases by specimen date were only available up to 1 February. With the applied lag, this means specimen cases are reported up until 28 January in this week’s report. This does not affect total combined LFD and PCR case numbers.

This error also affected hospital and ICU admissions numbers in Scotland. These were not reported on 2 February, meaning that data on Scotland ICU and hospital admissions included in the report was published on 3 February. This also affects hospital admissions on the UK government dashboard and the data used in the section comparing these indicators across the 4 Nations, which was accessed on 1 February.

This error also affected death numbers reported by PHS on 2 February, used when comparing death rates across the four UK nation. This section also uses data accessed on 1 February.

Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot

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