Situation by Local Authority within Scotland
In the week leading up to 27 March 2022, Na h-Eileanan Siar had the highest combined PCR and LFD weekly case rate by specimen date, reporting 2,898 cases per 100,000 population. Orkney Islands had the lowest weekly combined LFD and PCR case rate in the same time period, reporting 781 cases per 100,000. The total combined LFD and PCR weekly case rates by specimen date per 100,000 had increased in the Shetland Islands in the week leading up to 27 March 2022 compared with the weekly case rate leading up to 20 March 2022. The other 31 local authorities saw a decrease in case rates in the same period (Figure 12).
Please note that the following local authority hotspot modelling uses data to 28 March 2022 from several academic groups to give an indication of whether a local authority is likely to experience high levels of Covid-19. The local authority modelling has not been compiled via UKHSA into a consensus this week and is based on one modelling group.
In less populated regions in which case numbers are small, there is a greater variation in model estimates, and hence increased uncertainty. This has led to Na h-Eileanan Siar, Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands not being included this week. The modelled weekly case rate below is not directly comparable to the weekly case rate reported in the section and figure above.
Modelled rates of positive tests per 100,000 indicate that for the week commencing 10 April, all 29 of the local authorities included are expected to exceed 100 cases per 100,000 with at least 75% probability. The same 29 local authorities are also expected to exceed 300 cases per 100,000, with at least 75% probability.
21 out of the 29 local authorities are expected to exceed 500 cases per 100,000, with at least 75% probability. The exceptions are Angus, Clackmannanshire, East Ayrshire, East Dunbartonshire, East Lothian, Inverclyde, South Lanarkshire and West Dunbartonshire. None of the local authorities are expected to exceed 1,000 cases per 100,000 with at least 75% probability in the week ending 16 April.
There is a problem
Thanks for your feedback