Child poverty: evidence in policy making

Evidence-informed policy making: presentation

Contents: role of analysis in the Scottish Government’s work to eradicate child poverty

1. Introduction
2. Evidence rooted in experience
3. Scottish Child Payment
4. Two-child limit payment
5. Analytical evidence across the Scottish Government
6. List of sources

1. Introduction

Context: eradicating child poverty in Scotland

Eradicating child poverty is one of the Scottish Government’s four priority policy commitments. The Child Poverty (Scotland) Act 2017 set out four ambitious child poverty targets which are to be reached by 2030. The targets relate to:

• children living in families in relative poverty
• children living in families in absolute poverty
• children living in families in combined low income and material deprivation
• children living in families in persistent poverty

This resource pack showcases examples of where evidence has influenced policy decision making in the Scottish Government’s work to eradicate child poverty.

Research by Scottish Government analysts provides vital evidence for understanding what measures are working best to both reduce poverty rates towards the final target level and to improve the lives and wellbeing of families living in poverty. The robust and high quality nature of this research has contributed significantly to the development and implementation of policies aimed at eradicating child poverty.

Evidence themes

This resource pack highlights three examples showing the importance of evidence produced by SG analysts for eradicating child poverty. The first theme reflects the overarching approach to evidence by rooting it in people’s experiences. Two key examples are then provided to show how evidence has been used to tailor specific policies.

Evidence rooted in experience

• Using broad lenses and overarching approaches to evidence: priority families concept and assessing how policies work together.
• Focus reports on priority families, socio-economic trends and inequalities.
• Reviewing what works for individual policies through policy evaluations (SCP, Pathfinders, childcare policies) and as a cumulative package.

Scottish Child Payment

• Cumulative Impact Modelling reports showing positive trends.
• Reviewing what works through SCP interim reports.
• Research on relationship between SCP and the labour market.

Two-child limit payment

• Cumulative Impact Modelling reports showing negative trends and the need to mitigate.
• Decomposition analysis report and priority family focus reports: understanding the limit as a barrier to income for families.  

2. Evidence rooted in experience

The Priority Family Types concept is used as a lens when gathering evidence and to guide policy development.

Priority families make up the majority of households with children in poverty, and they are most at risk of falling into poverty. While 23% of all children in Scotland are in relative poverty, children in the priority groups are more likely than average to be in relative poverty:

• lone parent families (36% in relative poverty)
• minority ethnic families (37% in relative poverty)
• families with a disabled adult or child (27% in relative poverty)
• families with a mother aged under 25 (52% in relative poverty)
• families with a child under one (35% in relative poverty)
• larger families (3+ children) (41% in relative poverty)

The focus on distinct priority families has emphasised the need for wide-ranging policies that recognise complexity. Evidence demonstrates the importance of a person-centred approach that addresses barriers faced by those on low income.

It highlights that some families experience multiple disadvantages or adversities. These families are often among those deepest in poverty. For families experiencing multiple disadvantages or adversities, barriers are often deeply interconnected - overlapping and intersecting with each other and with poverty in complex ways. Multiple disadvantages can make it harder to get out of poverty and poverty can also make it harder to overcome adversities.

Evidence around key barriers faced by priority families supports policy design and implementation. Analysis helps ensure that policy implementation is attuned to the varying needs of those most at risk of poverty. Examples include:

• No One Left Behind employability
• school-age childcare policies
• Glasgow and Dundee Pathfinders

Research provides an understanding of how the package of policies is working together to target those families living in poverty. Qualitative system evaluation and quantitative cumulative impact modelling are used to assess the policy package as a whole.

Focus reports provide in-depth knowledge of experiences and challenges faced by families living on a low income.

Each family type faces unique barriers that often intersect with one another. Evidence from the focus reports shows that:

• families with a child under the age of one experience decreased income from employment coupled with increased costs of living. Improvements to accessible childcare and increased wellbeing are recommended for this family type
• families with a disabled person are less likely to be in employment and are more likely to experience barriers to employment. The cost of living tends to be higher due to extra expenses needed for specialist equipment and support. Stability and flexibility in work, care, and income packages is needed to help these families
• lone parents are the most likely to be facing underemployment and are disproportionately affected by cuts and freezes to social security. Increased flexibility for childcare and progress in gender equality are recommended (as 92% of these families are led by women)
• larger families with three or more children face particular challenges with a higher cost of living and are more likely to experience food insecurity. Disproportionate social security cuts and freezes also tend to impact on this family type, and policies that mitigate these cuts are recommended to help larger families increase their income and move further away from poverty
• families with a young mother are at higher risk of in-work poverty and are affected by an absence of childcare which prevents them from increasing their work hours. They are also affected by cuts to social security due to their higher reliance on income through this means. Key policies are those that support further education or improved job prospects on the basis of flexible and affordable childcare
• ethnic minority families rely more on income through employment despite facing lower pay and greater discrimination in this area. Maximising benefits take-up, targeting discrimination, and targeted support for affordable housing are thought to best help these families

Research has found that there are significant intersections between these priority groups, highlighting the need for holistic anti-poverty policies. For example, mothers under the age of 25 are more likely to be part of other family priority types, with over two in five (44%) in a lone parent household, 41% living with someone who is disabled and 34% having a baby under one in the household.

Evidence also sheds light on links with other factors such as gender.

The 2024 focus report on poverty and gender found that women’s poverty was intrinsically linked with child poverty due to the gendered nature of domestic roles. Women are more likely to be full-time care-givers or doing unpaid care work and therefore have less ability to improve their income through paid employment.

Emerging evaluation evidence shows how place-based partnerships are improving the lives of families living in poverty.

Evaluation evidence from the Glasgow and Dundee Pathfinders shows a range of impacts for families, and provides learning for other areas on how this can be achieved

• The Child Poverty Pathfinders were designed to integrate support at the local level, making it easier for families at risk of poverty to access the support they need, when they need it, to help them maximise their incomes and move into sustained employment or education
• The evaluation found that the targeted approach – using data and proactive outreach – helped reach priority families. For example, in Dundee, parents supported by the Pathfinder included very high proportions of lone parents and parents with a disability or health condition, and around a quarter of parents had three or more children
• Qualitative interviews showed that immediate impacts for families have been overwhelmingly positive. Interviewees reported transformative changes to their financial, social or emotional circumstances
• It was found that the delivery of holistic support through trusted key workers, with support tailored to people’s needs and at the duration and pace set by them, as well as join-up between different elements of support, were critical to the achievement of outcomes for families
• The report notes that the impact on wider system changes is limited at this stage, and emphasises that achieving change at the system level is complex and should be expected to take time. The emerging evidence provides insights into the factors that can support this longer-term reform

The evaluation evidence to date shows the potential of the place-based approach to improve outcomes for families. Further, careful analysis of future developments and progress will add to our understanding of longer-term outcomes for families and for local services. The success of these initial projects has led to an expansion of ‘Fairer Futures Partnerships’ into other areas, supported by funding of £6 million in the 2025-26 Scottish Budget.

Ongoing evaluations of childcare policies show where they are working well and where improvements are needed.

Interim evaluations of the expansion of early learning and childcare show how analysts carefully monitor changes to existing measures designed to tackle child poverty.

• from August 2021, entitlement to early learning and childcare (ELC) in Scotland was increased from 600 to 1140 hours per year for all three- and four-year-olds, and eligible two-year-olds
• surveys and qualitative research have indicated that the ELC expansion is helping parents back/into work, study or training
• qualitative evidence also showed that parents overwhelmingly believed that the expansion was benefitting their children’s overall wellbeing and development

While the impact on eradicating child poverty cannot be measured at this early stage in the policy implementation period, analysts can provide evidence that such policies are working as they were intended to and are enacting positive changes for families living in poverty.

Priority families were targeted in the development and assessment of Early Adopter Communities (EACs), an initiative that provides local areas with support to develop a system of school-age childcare.

• Analysis was conducted using causal pathways and theories of change to hypothesise the most optimal outcome for the EACs. Qualitative evidence from interviews with families and project leads was mapped against these theories to determine the extent to which the projects had reached their goals.
• This research builds on the learning from the 2023 Access to Childcare Fund assessment, which also showed ACF to have met its aims to provide accessible and affordable childcare through a series of community projects.
• EACs were found to be meeting families’ needs and contributed to an expansion of affordable and easily accessible childcare for low-income families. This approach also worked towards system change through the development of partnerships and was found to be helping families alongside other initiatives such as the Pathfinder projects.
• There is evidence that priority families of all types used this service, but more could be done in future to further reach certain groups, such as minority ethnic families.

The development of supportive childcare networks is central to tackling child poverty by allowing parents to earn more income through employment.

3. Scottish Child Payment

Research shows the Scottish Child Payment contributes significantly to the reduction of child poverty rates in Scotland.

Context: The Scottish Child Payment (SCP) is a social security measure provided to families in Scotland who are receiving certain UK Government low-income benefits.

• The current amount paid weekly is £27.15 per child.
• It is part of the Scottish Government’s Five Family Payments, alongside Best Start Foods and Best Start Grant (Pregnancy and Baby Payment, Early Learning Payment, and School Age Payment).
• SCP has expanded over time since its introduction: both the amount awarded and the eligibility.

An impact modelling framework created by analysts has been important for projecting the positive impact that SCP is likely to have on child poverty levels.

• This works by comparing two scenarios from a microsimulation: a policy scenario with projection of the impact of specific policies, and a counterfactual scenario which mirrors a world without the Scottish Government policies.

Analysis shows SCP is a significant driver of the reduction in child poverty rates across each of the most recent yearly update reports.

• All updates show that in the counterfactual scenario, poverty rates would remain broadly consistent, while the scenario with the package of policies shows a continuous reduction in child poverty rates.
• In March 2025 modelling, SCP alone is estimated to keep 40,000 children out of relative poverty in 2025-26, with the relative child poverty rate four percentage points lower than it would be without the policy in place.

Estimates provided through the cumulative impact model are used carefully by analysts to predict the impact of various policies measured together. Updates to this modelling demonstrate SG analysts’ commitment to robust and timely analysis to inform monitoring and decision making.

Evaluations of the Scottish Child Payment show that it has a positive impact on financial outcomes for recipients, justifying expansion of the policy over time.

An early interim evaluation of SCP showed that the policy was working as intended, while also revealing areas where it could be improved.

• SCP was found to have contributed to both short-term and medium-term policy outcomes such as reducing financial pressure on households and reduced debt and material deprivation.
• Estimates of the take-up rate of SCP showed that while the rate was high, more could be done to encourage eligible families to take up the payment and to further improve the application process.
• While the report acknowledged that more long-term data would be needed to fully assess the progress of SCP, this initial evaluation showed that the SCP has contributed positively to the everyday lives of low-income families.
• More recent evaluation evidence indicates that the Five Family Payments, including SCP, have largely achieved their immediate, short-term, and medium-term policy outcomes.

Important changes have been made to SCP following this research, increasing the effectiveness of the policy in targeting child poverty.

• Interviews with recipients conducted as part of the 2022 interim report found that many of them either did not know about or struggled with the initial eligibility rules, which restricted the payment to children aged 6 and under.
• From November 2022, the eligibility for payments was expanded to include children up to the age of 16, helping to overcome this barrier.
• Evidence also suggested that the original payment amount was not considered a large enough sum of money to completely transform people’s financial situation. The payment level has now increased from £10 per child when SCP was first implemented in February 2021 to £27.15 from April 2025.

Research has provided reassurance that SCP is not currently negatively affecting labour market outcomes at scale in the economy.

There are concerns that SCP’s ‘cliff edge’ nature could lead to a negative impact on the labour market. Unlike Universal Credit, SCP is not tapered according to income. This has led to concerns that the payment could become a work disincentive for recipients.

Research indicates that at its current rates SCP is not negatively affecting labour market outcomes at scale in the economy.

• SG analysts used a combination of quantitative and qualitative evidence to reach this conclusion, using labour market theory and empirical evidence.
• Three indicators were analysed: ‘employment likelihood’ in UC labour market regimes; low UC award analysis; and questions about employment choices in the Social Security Scotland client survey.
• Comparisons between both the incidence of small UC payments and UC planning for work conditionality clients in England and in Scotland showed no substantial impact from SCP milestones. This suggests that the SCP (which is only available in Scotland) has not had a negative impact on Scotland’s labour market at scale.
• Evaluation and survey evidence from SCP clients also suggests that these choices are highly dependent on individual circumstances and can operate in different directions.

Qualitative evidence from the labour market report and subsequent Five Family Payments evaluation showed that SCP provided flexibility for parents.

• Qualitative interviews and open-ended comments on surveys revealed lived benefits to society that could not be easily identified through the quantitative analysis.
• For example, recipients explained how SCP helped them pay for childcare and commuting costs, enabling them to work full-time.
• For others, SCP facilitated working more flexible hours, working part-time, choosing not to increase hours, or stopping work altogether. In these cases, the payments meant recipients could afford to spend more time with their children, look after a disabled child, or work around the needs of their children.
• The research also shows the complexity of labour market interactions and the varying impacts that different factors will have on employment and labour market decisions.

Evidence shows SCP to be an overwhelmingly positive measure, providing a basis for ongoing implementation of the policy.

4. Two-child limit payment

Research has underpinned the Scottish Government’s policy to effectively abolish the two-child limit by showing how it has hindered the impact of other policies.

Context: The two-child limit was introduced by the UK Government in 2017 to limit eligibility to certain benefits to a maximum of two children per family. SG has made efforts to mitigate the effects of this limit and has announced that by 2026 it will have fully mitigated the impact for parents and carers receiving UC who are subject to the two-child limit.

The most recent updates to the cumulative impact modelling framework revealed the negative impact that the two-child limit was having on reducing child poverty levels.

• Results from the update published in March 2025 estimate that by the end of 2023-24, the restrictions would have withheld a cumulative total of £377 million from Scottish households since it was introduced, equivalent to £424 million in 2024-25 prices.
• This update also showed that there has been a steady increase over time in poverty among families with three or more children, but this increase has been particularly pronounced since around 2017, when the two-child limit began to take effect.

Evidence from the cumulative impact modelling updates further revealed that in scenarios where the two-child limit was excluded or fully mitigated, child poverty rates would be reduced even further.

• The original modelling was updated to test for hypothetical changes to welfare reform, including changes to SCP and a potential removal of the two-child limit.
• It was estimated in the 2025 update that mitigating the limit would keep 20,000 children out of relative poverty in 2026-27.
• Mitigation of the two-child limit was also highlighted as one of the main policies likely to contribute to a reduction in child poverty in previous updates to the modelling, showing that regular updates have consistently underlined the need for this policy change.

Analysis of child poverty trends highlights that the two-child limit has stalled the reduction of poverty for families with more than two children.

Decomposition analysis in the 2024-25 child poverty progress report showed that the two-child limit contributed to growing poverty rates in larger families.

• Taking a closer look at the child poverty statistics through the lens of different family characteristics enabled a better understanding of why the poverty rates were not reducing at a fast pace.
• The analysis breaks down the overall changes in child poverty rates by subgroups with these characteristics: household tenure type; family type; working status of families; and the number of children in each family.

Results showed differences in poverty rate changes by family size and working status. While the poverty rate for families with one or two children decreased between 2015 and 2024, the poverty rate among larger families with three or more children increased. Limited work intensity and barriers to full-time employment were also found to hinder the reduction in child poverty rates.

The increase in poverty among larger families counteracted the decrease in poverty in families with fewer children, leading to a smaller overall reduction in poverty.

Analysts concluded that this divergence in poverty rates is likely to be, at least in part, due to the two-child limit imposed on families with children born after April 2017. This in turn provides evidence that mitigation of the two-child limit is necessary to be able to progress further towards eradicating child poverty in Scotland.

5. Analytical evidence across the Scottish Government

Analytical evidence provides vital insights for planning, implementing and evaluating approaches to eradicating child poverty.

Consistent and robust evaluation informs a wide-ranging system of policies that work together towards the goal of eradicating child poverty.

Although this resource pack has focused on research relating to core policies directed at eradicating child poverty, there are wider policies across SG that also contribute to achieving this aim. Some examples include:

• No One Left Behind: Employability initiative offering support for entering into and maintaining employment, which is important for helping to tackle the ‘income from employment’ child poverty driver. The priority families concept is used in data collection to understand how far the measures are engaging with those most at risk for child poverty.
• Best Start Foods: Designed to provide financial support for low-income families to access nutritious food at the point of need, as part of the effort to reduce food insecurity alongside wider health goals. Reducing child poverty is one of the primary outcomes for this initiative and hence is considered within research that has evaluated the progress of Best Start Foods.
• Whole Family Wellbeing Fund: Aims to improve overall wellbeing by joining up preventative and early intervention support for families across a range of community and national services provided by different organisations. Guiding families towards wider support for employability is a core part of this initiative and is therefore linked to the wider effort to reduce child poverty.

Child poverty research is important for policy areas across Scottish Government directorates, including other key commitments such as the environment and affordable housing. Affordable housing is widely considered to be important for reducing costs for low-income families; while the evidence base that informs environmental policies also requires a consideration of how families can be helped by policies that target issues such as fuel poverty and heating and energy efficiency.

Analysts provide crucial evidence and insights to inform policy design and delivery across the whole of Scottish Government, helping us progress towards our goal of eradicating child poverty.

6. List of sources

Evidence rooted in experience: priority families

• Overview of priority groups
• Tackling child poverty - progress report 2023-2024: annex a - measurement framework
• Tackling child poverty - progress report 2023-2024: annex b - focus report on gender and poverty
• Tackling child poverty – progress report 2023-24: annex B – focus report on other marginalised groups at risk of poverty
• Tackling child poverty delivery plan: fourth year progress report 2021-2022 - focus report on households with babies under one
• Executive summary - Tackling child poverty delivery plan 2022-2026 - annex 6: what works - evidence review
• Tackling child poverty: second year progress report – annex C – child poverty among lone parent families
• Tackling child poverty - third year progress report : annex B - child poverty in families with a disabled adult or child
• Tackling child poverty: first year progress report – Annex C – Ethnicity breakdowns
• Tackling Child Poverty Delivery Plan 2022-26: Evaluation approach to system change
• Tackling child poverty - place-based, system change initiatives: learnings
• Child poverty pathfinders in Dundee and Glasgow: phase two evaluation
• Executive Summary - Early Adopter Communities: process evaluation
• Access to Childcare Fund: phase 2 - evaluation report
• Early Learning and Childcare Expansion to 1140 hours: Interim Evaluation Report

Scottish Child Payment

• 3. Cumulative impact assessment - Child poverty modelling: update (2025)
• Child poverty cumulative impact assessment: update (2024)
• Tackling child poverty delivery plan - annual progress report: annex b - cumulative impact assessment update (2023)
• Scottish Child Payment: interim evaluation
• Five Family Payments: evaluation
• Scottish Child Payment and the labour market

Two-Child Limit Payment

• Tackling child poverty - progress report 2023-2024: annex C - decomposition analysis of the child poverty statistics

Evidence across Scottish Government

• No One Left Behind and the Young Person's Guarantee: implementation evaluation
• Fair Start Scotland - evaluation report 5: qualitative interviews with service participants - years 4 and 5 - November 2023
• Best Start Foods: evaluation
• Whole Family Wellbeing Funding (WFWF) Programme - year 2: process and impact evaluation - full report
• Child poverty system map