Publication - Research and analysis

Young People and the Future of Scotland: participatory horizon scanning engagement

Published: 17 June 2025
From: Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Gaelic
Directorate: Strategy Directorate
Topic: Public sector
ISBN: 9781836917618

As part of its Horizon Scanning work, Scottish Government worked with Demos Helsinki, the Scottish Youth Parliament (SYP) and the UK Government Office for Science to undertake a futures-focused engagement with young people aged 14-19. The engagement findings and the methodology are presented in this report.

Supporting documents

Appendix 2: Trend cards

The 27 trend cards co-created as a core input for the workshop are provided below:

Trend card about the future of voting in the category of politics and governance. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Young people care about politics but are less likely to vote than older generations.
Impact: If fewer young people vote, policies might not reflect their needs.
Questions: Why do you think young people are less likely to vote? How could voting be more engaging? Why may young people feel differently about Scottish elections than other elections? What kind of activities does ‘engaging in politics’ involve for you?

Trend card about trust in institutions in the category of politics and governance. The back of the trend card reads; Trend: Young people trust the Scottish Government more than older generations, but their trust in UK political institutions overall is declining. This includes national governments in the UK, parliaments, and political parties.
Impact: If trust continues to fall, fewer people might engage with democracy and governments.
Questions: What makes you trust (or not trust) the government? How can institutions earn your trust?

Trend card about misinformation and fake news in the category of politics and governance. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Young people increasingly use social media as their main source of news but are also exposed to more mis- and disinformation on topics such as climate change and political events.
Impact: If misinformation spreads unchecked, it could shape people’s view of reality and decisions - from adopting new habits that affect their health, like vaping and excessive gaming, to changing their views on topics like climate change, conflicts, and politics.
Questions: Why do you think young people tend to choose social media for news rather than traditional sources like TV or newspapers? How do you tell what’s real and what’s fake online? How can we fight misinformation?

Trend card about polarisation and democracy in the category of politics and governance. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Political and social divisions are deepening, and mis- and disinformation are increasing distrust and doubt over who can be trusted as a source of the truth.
Impact: Mis- and disinformation spread widely, influencing how people form opinions and make decisions. This can reduce trust and make it harder to solve shared challenges.
Questions: Why do you think society is becoming more polarised? What could help people with different views understand each other better? How could we build trust in society and democracy?

Trend card about Scotland in a changing world in the category of politics and governance. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Scotland is affected by global events, from climate change to new technologies and international conflicts. Cooperation between countries to solve global challenges, like climate change, is becoming more challenging.
Impact: Events happening elsewhere in the world can shape Scotland’s economy, communities, and future opportunities. This could mean shifts in jobs, industries, policies, or even everyday life - from new technologies being adopted to changes in who moves to and from Scotland.
Questions: How could Scotland cooperate more with other countries? What kinds of things should Scotland advocate for on the international stage? How could young people be part of this?

Trend card about the future of public services in the category of politics and governance. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Governments provide important public services like healthcare, education, social services, and transport. With rising costs and changing populations, Scotland will need to consider which services its population needs and how to deliver and fund them.
Impact: Future populations may have different needs than those public services currently serve, so public services may need to change. If there isn’t enough funding for all needs, public services may need to reduce costs, ask people to pay more through higher taxes, or find new ways of delivering services.
Questions: Which public services are most important for young people? Would you be willing to pay higher taxes for better or more services? Would you accept fewer services for lower taxes? Why? What public services should be prioritised? How do you think Scotland should plan for the future to make sure public services are fair and sustainable?

Trend card about the future of public services in the category of politics and governance. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Governments provide important public services like healthcare, education, social services, and transport. With rising costs and changing populations, Scotland will need to consider which services its population needs and how to deliver and fund them.
Impact: Future populations may have different needs than those public services currently serve, so public services may need to change. If there isn’t enough funding for all needs, public services may need to reduce costs, ask people to pay more through higher taxes, or find new ways of delivering services.
Questions: Which public services are most important for young people? Would you be willing to pay higher taxes for better or more services? Would you accept fewer services for lower taxes? Why? What public services should be prioritised? How do you think Scotland should plan for the future to make sure public services are fair and sustainable?

Trend card about AI and jobs in the category of economy and jobs. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: AI and automation will replace some jobs but also create new ones.
Impact: Many of today’s careers might change or disappear, while new jobs emerge.
Questions: Which jobs do you think AI can’t replace? Which skills should young people learn? How may this change how we think of our education and careers? What if AI helps us move away from existing ways of doing things, like the 9-5 model of work?

Trend card about equality and fairness in the category of economy and jobs. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Wealth and income inequalities are growing between and within generations. Some young people have access to more opportunities than others, depending on factors like where they live, their background, and their family’s financial situation.
Impact: If inequality continues to grow, young people may face very different life chances with some struggling to afford housing, education, and secure jobs, while others benefit from inherited wealth or better opportunities.
Questions: What does ‘equality’ actually look like to you? Do we have the same definition? Do you think young people today have the same opportunities as previous generations? What do you think makes the biggest difference in whether someone has a good future (e.g. education, family wealth, government policies, personal effort)? Should governments do more to reduce inequality, and how?

Trend card about the future of work and skills in the category of economy and jobs. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Because of changing work needs and an ageing workforce, young people are likely to have to retrain multiple times in their careers.
Impact: Instead of one lifelong career, people will likely reskill and shift between different jobs.
Questions: What are the pros and cons of changing careers often? What skills do you think will always be needed? How could this change our approach to education and training?

Trend card about the future of housing in the category of economy and jobs. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Housing is becoming unaffordable which is affecting young people’s choices. More young people are renting for longer instead of buying homes, and there is a rise in young people living with family members (e.g. parents) until an older age or moving back in after university.
Impact: If young people can’t find affordable housing which meets their needs at different stages of their lives, this may affect their decisio

Trend card about changing norms and gender relations in the category of society and community. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Social norms and expectations around gender, relationships, and identity have changed over time. There are different views between and within generations, and growing disagreement and polarisation, particularly online.
Impact: If disagreements and polarisation over gender, relationships, and identity continue, there could be backsliding of gender equality efforts. This may cause discrimination an

Trend card about the future of urban and rural life in the category of society and community. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Scotland’s population is becoming more urbanised, with depopulation in many rural areas. At the same time, remote work and better digital access could make living in rural areas more possible for some.
Impact: As more people move to cities, rural communities may change or even shrink. This could affect local businesses, schools, and services. But new ways of working and living might also bring fre

Trend card about the future of education in the category of society and community. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Students are increasingly questioning what kind of learning experience they should have including what they should learn, what kind of environment education should be, and expressing a want for more support for additional needs.
Impact: The way young people are prepared for life after school may look very different in the future. Education may focus more on practical skills, digital learning, and flexible pa

Trend card about changing population in the category of society and community. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: More people are moving both within and across borders due to work, education, climate change, and conflict. Scotland’s population is expected to peak in the next few years and then decline and age, so migration from the rest of the UK and beyond could play a key role in shaping its future. Young people tend to have more positive views on migration, but public opinion remains divided.
Impact: Migration can bring

Trend card about digital divides in the category of society and community. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: New technologies, including AI, can help us with our lives, studies, and work. But some people can’t access them as easily as others. For example, because of the costs of devices or data, the need to learn new skills, or if technologies aren’t available where they live. Governments struggle to regulate the global companies that own major platforms and technological advances.
Impact: This could lead to a future wher

Trend card about values and ethics in a changing world in the category of society and community. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Young people’s values and priorities are evolving. Many care deeply about issues like climate change, fairness, and human rights, but social and political divisions mean people often disagree on what is “right” or “fair.” New technologies and global challenges also raise new ethical questions.
Impact: As society changes, debates around fairness, freedom, ethics, and responsibility will shape po

Trend card about young people's health and habits in the category of health and habits. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Although young people are eating more healthily and drinking less alcohol, they are reporting poorer health. Use of illegal drugs, the spread of synthetic opioids, and increased use of vapes are a cause for concern. There are significant health inequalities between different groups of young people.
Impact: Poor health among young people can affect their long-term health and well-being, as well as their

Trend card about the future of care, health and well-being in the category of health and habits. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Scotland’s population is ageing, and more people will need support with increased mental health needs, illness, diseases, and infections. As health and care needs will grow, so will their costs. We need to develop the right approach to supporting and paying for these needs.
Impact: We need to consider how we connect with each other and what caring communities that support different physical, me

Trend card about the future of mental health in the category of health and habits. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Mental health awareness has increased, but challenges like stress, anxiety, and loneliness increasingly affect young people. More young people are diagnosed with mental health conditions, especially young women and girls. While new treatments, policies, and technologies could improve support, mental health services are already under pressure.
Impact: More young people are experiencing mental health condition

Trend card about the loneliness and connection in the category of health and habits. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: More people live alone than ever before or struggle to socialise in the physical world. Young people spend more time online than ever with some experiencing online harms or problematic use of social media and gaming.
Impact: Communities might need new ways to keep people connected as virtual friendships and experiences may become more common than physical ones. But also, if we don’t know how to connect i

Trend card about online life in the category of health and habits. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Young people spend a lot of time online every day. Although many say they feel safe online and it helps to connect with friends or support learning, many also have upsetting experiences like cyberbullying, cybercrime, and exposure to extreme content. There is increasing problematic or addictive use of games and social media, and concerns over effects on sleep, well-being, concentration and learning, and physical and mental h

Trend card about extreme weather in the category of climate and environment. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Scotland is experiencing more floods and extreme weather due to climate change.
Impact: Some areas may become uninhabitable, and new urban areas might emerge.
Questions: What can Scotland do to prepare for extreme weather? Should people be supported to move from high-risk areas? What kinds of changes would you be willing to make in your own life to adapt to climate changes?

Trend card about the future of food in the category of climate and environment. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Food security is becoming a major global issue because of changes in climates and how different countries work with each other.
Impact: Scotland may need to rely more on local food sources and new technologies and adjust to potential food shortages when new events disrupt supply chains.
Questions: What should the diet of the future look like? Should we value local food mo

Trend card about the future of food in the category of climate and environment. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Food security is becoming a major global issue because of changes in climates and how different countries work with each other.
Impact: Scotland may need to rely more on local food sources and new technologies and adjust to potential food shortages when new events disrupt supply chains.
Questions: What should the diet of the future look like? Should we value local food mo

Trend card about plastic waste in the category of climate and environment. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Plastic waste is expected to almost triple by 2060 globally.
Impact: Future generations may struggle with polluted oceans, lakes, rivers, and land.
Questions: How can we reduce plastic use? What alternatives could replace plastic? How should we tackle issues like ‘forever chemicals’, plastic waste, and microplastics? How much are you willing to change the items or kinds of mat

Trend card about Scotland as a green leader in the category of climate and environment. The back of the trend card reads;
Trend: Within the UK, Scotland has the most green jobs advertised, and Scottish industries and work will continue to change as we transition to Net Zero.
Impact: Scotland has the opportunity to demonstrate itself within the UK and beyond as a leader in green industries and work, especially in areas like green tech, biosciences, and green infrastructure (e.g. construction,

Contact

Email: foresight@gov.scot

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