Violence Prevention Framework for Scotland: Monitoring Framework, 2025

Data and methodology

The Monitoring Framework (MF) seeks to understand progress, over time, at national level, towards the long-term vision of the VPF through monitoring indicator themes organised under two outcome categories which speak directly to the two key components of the VPF vision:

1. Reducing the prevalence and incidence of violence[7] – This outcome category includes indicators that draw on key sources of data on violence prevalence and incidence in Scotland, to monitor changes over time in the extent, nature and characteristics of violence in Scotland
2. Reducing violence-related harm – This outcome category includes indicators that monitor violence-related harms, both physical and emotional, including violence-related fear as a legacy of harm created by the experience of violence experienced by oneself or others

Each indicator theme has at least one quantitative (proxy) measure attached, however some indicator themes have more than one (proxy) measure attached to offer a more nuanced understanding of what available data tells us about the indicator theme.

Each measure is supported by accompanying narrative drawing on insights from robust sources of both qualitative and quantitative evidence, as appropriate and where relevant to understanding the indicator measure trend – including to help identify groups at greatest risk of experiencing violence.

The indicators and associated measures in each section are indicative of the change we would hope and expect to see and not a comprehensive audit of all measures that could indicate change.

The MF uses measures that draw on robust sources of official data, which are collected regularly and are available at population (Scotland) level. However, it is challenging to measure the full extent of violence in Scotland using just one source – there are various definitions of violence, the data sources measure different types of violence, and each data source has its own strengths and limitations. By combining sources, a fuller picture of violent crime in Scotland can be obtained.

Key data sources used in the Monitoring Framework include:

• Recorded Crime in Scotland 2024-25
• Homicide in Scotland 2024-25
• Scottish Crime and Justice Survey 2023-24
• Unintentional Injuries in Scotland, Public Health Scotland 2025

Annex 1 provides a summary of the strengths and limitations associated with each of these sources. For example, while a broader range of crimes can be found in Police Recorded Crime, the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS) estimates that only 44% of violent crimes were reported to the police in 2023-24 (which is consistent with earlier years).

Given the under-reporting of violent crime and that police recording practices can often be subject to change, other sources such as victimisation surveys (the SCJS) and Hospital Admissions data can be used to further improve our understanding.

The SCJS and Hospital Admissions data are, however, subject to limitations. The SCJS, for example, can only provide information on those over 16 years old in private households (including social housing and rental accommodation), while Hospital Admissions data are reliant on a person to be admitted and for their injuries to be identified and coded as being due to violence (those receiving care from a GP or in an outpatient setting and those attending emergency departments but not admitted will not be recorded).

The Official Statistics Bulletin for recorded crime in Scotland does not include details on the characteristics of offenders, however bespoke analysis by Police Scotland for age of accused for crimes detected/cleared up by the police in 2024-25 is provided as supplementary evidence for each measure which uses recorded crime data (see indicator themes 1, 2, 3 and 8). It should be noted, however, that this data does not provide an age breakdown for the topline indicator measure which is drawn from the sum of all crimes recorded, rather just those crimes that were detected/cleared up. The age breakdowns presented are drawn from the number of distinct accused for the crime types included in the measure – if individuals have committed more than one of the same crime types in the reporting year (2024-25) they will only be counted once and therefore the total for distinct accused may be a lower figure than the total crimes detected/cleared up.

The baseline year for most measures in the monitoring framework is 2008-09 – aligned with the first year of the SCJS - with a view to creating the longest time series possible for which data on both crimes recorded by the police[8] and on victim experience of crime in Scotland is available. However, in some instances – noted as relevant on a measure by measure basis – the baseline year is later than 2008-09 where a procedural or methodological change means data is either not available back to 2008-09 or is not straightforward to interpret prior to the selected baseline year. This is the case for indicator themes 3, 8 and 12.

When interpreting measure trends, the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on official statistics on violence should be considered. In terms of recorded crime, the nationwide lockdowns and other measures put in place to limit social contact during the pandemic are very likely to have had a significant impact on the type and volume of crime recorded by the police since March 2020. A larger impact was seen during 2020-21, and to a lesser extent 2021-22. All legal Coronavirus restrictions in Scotland were lifted in April 2022, and since 2022-23 there have been no crimes recorded under specific Coronavirus legislation. To acknowledge this, the quarters affected by covid restrictions are marked up on all charts in the MF which use recorded crime data[9]. However, some caution is advised before necessarily attributing all of the changes seen in recorded crime over this period to the pandemic. For example, longer term trends in some types of offending, which existed prior to COVID-19, may remain a factor.

In terms of the SCJS, the latest data (2023-24) included in the MF is the first post-pandemic survey to be completely unaffected by covid-restrictions – the nature of which may have impacted on patterns of crime in Scotland (and therefore the SCJS findings for 2021-22). Given this, some caution should be taken when making inferences based on SCJS comparisons between 2021-22 and 2023-24.

When interpreting trends in emergency hospital admissions, it should be noted that during the COVID-19 pandemic, NHS Boards, hospitals and healthcare providers were required to change their normal way of working to manage their COVID-19 response; this will have had a direct impact on the volume of hospital activity and trends observed.