Violence Prevention Framework for Scotland: Monitoring Framework, 2025
Monitoring framework to support the delivery of the Violence Prevention Framework for Scotland.
Part of
1. Reduction in all forms of interpersonal violence
This indicator theme acknowledges the linkages and interconnections between different forms of interpersonal violence[15] by seeking to monitor – at a high level – changing trends in non-sexual violence and sexual violence.
The measures are drawn from the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS) which provides evidence on the extent of violent crime experienced by the population in Scotland, and from Recorded Crime in Scotland which provides information on the number of crimes and offences recorded by the police in Scotland. One of the key strengths of the SCJS is that it includes incidents which are not reported to the police. The SCJS and police recorded crime statistics are therefore complementary sources that, together, present a fuller picture of violent crime in Scotland.
Figure 3 demonstrates the scale of the difference between the two series of crime statistics. In 2023-24, the SCJS estimates that there were 231,000 violent crimes (+/- 61,000, meaning the true number of violent crimes experienced by the population is estimated to be between 170,000 and 292,000), while the police recorded 64,439.
Figure 3: Both SCJS estimates of violent crime and comparable recorded crime have seen decreases over the longer term.
SCJS violent crime estimates and comparable Non-sexual crimes of violence recorded by the police, Scotland, 2008-09 to 2023-24.
Sources: Scottish Government - Scottish Crime and Justice Survey 2023/24 and Scottish Government - Recorded Crime in Scotland, 2024-25.
These two sources of comparable violent crime data have seen decreases over the longer term. Between 2008-09 and 2023-24[16], both SCJS estimates and comparable police recorded violent crime[17] figures have shown a decrease (27% and 22% respectively)[18]. Since 2021-22, the SCJS has seen a large year-on-year change, with an increase of 73%, whilst comparable police recorded violence increased by 2%. However, since 2019-20, the SCJS saw no significant change in violence while police recorded crime saw a 2% increase.
The official recorded ‘crime groups’ (Sexual crime and Non-sexual crimes of violence) are presented below as separate measures so that the different trends in different types of violence which sit beneath the total figure for ‘interpersonal violence’ can be monitored.
1.1 Number of recorded crimes of Non-sexual violence
Figure 4: The number of Non-sexual violent crimes recorded by the police has been gradually increasing since 2014-15, but is 18% lower than in 2008-09.
Non-sexual crimes of violence recorded by the police, Scotland, 2008-09 to 2024-25.
Source: Scottish Government - Recorded Crime in Scotland, 2024-25.
Between 2023-24 and 2024-25, the number of Non-sexual crimes of violence[19] recorded by the police in Scotland decreased by <1% from 71,473 to 71,170. Levels of Non-sexual violent crime were on a downward trend between 2008-09 and 2014-15, but have been gradually rising since then (excluding a Covid related dip in 2020-21). However Non-sexual crimes of violence remain 18% lower than in 2008-09. Almost a quarter (24%) of recorded crimes in Scotland are Non-sexual crimes of violence.
The majority of Non-sexual crimes of violence are Common assault (83% in 2024-25) which has driven up increases in the number of recorded crimes of Non-sexual violence in recent years (see indicator 2 which monitors longer term trends in common assault). In 2024-25, the <1% decrease in Non-sexual crimes of violence is due to decreases in Other non-sexual violence (down 7%), Serious assault and attempted murder (down 8%) and Robbery (down 7%). These decreases were however offset by a 26% increase in Domestic Abuse (Scotland) Act 2018 (DASA) crimes. In 2024-25, 94% (or 2,410) of crimes recorded under DASA involved a female victim; 6% (or 163) had a male victim.
The Domestic Abuse (Scotland) Act 2018 was implemented on 1 April 2019. Crimes under the Act relate to a course of conduct only and therefore do not include all crimes relating to domestic abuse. The Official Statistics Bulletin ’Domestic abuse: statistics recorded by the police in Scotland‘ contains details of domestic abuse incidents and crimes recorded by Police Scotland, including characteristics of victims and perpetrators, including age and gender.
In 2024-25, around two thirds (68%) of distinct accused[20] persons of crimes of Non-sexual violence cleared up[21] by the police were aged 25 and older. Of the 32,279 distinct accused persons of these crimes in 2024-25, 37% (12,094) were aged 25 to 39, 26% (8,398) were aged 40 to 59, 19% (5,982) were aged 16-24, 12% (3,766) were aged 12 to 15, and 4% (1,360) were aged 60 and over[22]. The number of distinct accused per 10,000 population was highest for those aged 12 to 15 (151 per 10,000) and lowest for those aged 60 and over (9 per 10,000). The number of distinct accused per 10,000 population was 111 for those aged 25-39, 101 for those aged 16 to 24, and 58 for those aged 40 to 59.
The SCJS provides additional evidence on perpetrator age for violent crime – including crimes not reported to the police – where respondents were able to provide details about the age they perceived the offender to be. In 2023-24, the proportion of violent crime incidents perceived to involve an offender under 16 was 31%, the highest recorded by the SCJS for this age group. This is an increase from 14% in 2008-09 and 8% in 2021-22. It is unusual to see such a large change in a single survey year. As this is based on a small number of respondents it will be important to monitor if this is a one off or a trend continued in future surveys. Around a quarter (23%) of incidents of violent crime in 2023-24 involved perpetrators aged 16 to 24 (this has remained at similar levels in recent years but has fallen over the long term, from 46% in 2008-09); 32% involved perpetrators aged 25-39; and 20% of incidents involved offenders aged 40 or over. The proportion of offenders who were 40 or over in 2021-22 was 36%. This has now reduced back to a level similar to both the pre-covid position in 2019-20, and 2008-09.
1.2 Number of recorded Sexual crimes
Figure 5: Sexual crimes recorded by the police has increased significantly since 2010-11 and is at the second highest level since 1971.
Sexual crimes recorded by the police, Scotland, 2008-09 to 2024-25.
Source: Scottish Government - Recorded Crime in Scotland, 2024-25.
In 2024-25, the number of Sexual crimes[23] recorded by the police in Scotland was 14,892; this is a 3% increase from 14,484 in 2023-24. These crimes are now at the second highest level seen since 1971, the first year for which comparable groups are available. Sexual crimes have been on a long-term upward trend since that point, with some fluctuations, however annual growth in the recording of these crimes has been generally greater since 2011-12 than the preceding years.
In 2024-25, 34% of Sexual crimes were Sexual assault, 19% were Rape and attempted rape, 15% were Causing to view sexual activity or images, and 11% were Other sexual crimes. A further 10% of Sexual crimes were Communicating indecently, 6% were Indecent photos of children, 5% were Threatening to or disclosing intimate images, and 1% were Crimes associated with prostitution.
In 2024-25, almost two thirds (65%) of distinct accused persons of Sexual crimes cleared up[24] by the police were aged 25 and older. Of the 4,589 distinct accused persons of these crimes in 2024-25, 33% (1,529) were aged 25 to 39, 24% (1,099) were aged 40 to 59, 23% (1,036) were aged 16 to 24, 10% (445) were aged 12 to 15, and 8% (356) were aged 60 and over[25]. The number of distinct accused per 10,000 population was highest for those aged 12 to 15 (18 per 10,000) - closely followed by those aged 16 to 24 (17 per 10,000) - and lowest for those aged 60 and over (2 per 10,000). The number of distinct accused per 10,000 population was 14 for those aged 25 to 39 and 8 for those aged 40 to 59.
A number of legislative and procedural changes should be noted when reviewing trends in Sexual crimes over the longer term:
- The Abusive Behaviour and Sexual Harm (Scotland) Act 2016 was enacted in July 2017. This resulted in new crimes of disclosing or threatening to disclose an intimate image being recorded; this has contributed to the increase in sexual crimes.
- The Communications Act 2003 (Sexual) offences were transferred from Miscellaneous offences group to Sexual crimes group in 2017-18.
In addition to these changes, the issue of historical reporting of Sexual crime also continues to play a role in the latest statistics.
1.3 Proportion of adults experiencing violent crime
Figure 6: Between 2008-09 and 2021-22, there was a long-term fall in violent crime victimisation for adults (aged 16 and over) in Scotland.
Proportion of adults experiencing violent crime, Scotland, 2008-09 to 2023-24.
Source: Scottish Government - Scottish Crime and Justice Survey 2023/24.
The Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS) estimates that 2.9% of adults (aged 16 and over) were victims of violent crime in 2023-24, with a margin of error between 2.2% and 3.5%. This totalled an estimated 231,000 violent crimes – between a lower estimate of 170,000 and an upper estimate of 292,000.
Between 2008-09 and 2021-22, there was a long-term fall in violent crime victimisation, from 4.1% to 1.7% of adults. Between 2021-22 and 2023-24, there was an increase of 1.2 percentage points from 1.7% to 2.9% of adults being a victim of a violent crime. Despite this increase, the chances of being a victim of a violent crime are at a similar level to the pre-covid position in 2019-20.
In 2023-24, the vast majority (95%) of violent crime incidents were some form of assault or attempted assault. The most common category of violence is assault with no or negligible injury (three out of five crimes, 61%). Attempted assault and minor assault with injury were 13% each, with serious assault at 8% of all violent crime. The remaining 5% of violent crime is robbery.
Since 2021-22 many groups have seen an increase in violent crime victimisation. This includes: males, people living out with the 15% most deprived areas, urban areas, and both disabled and non-disabled people. However, for almost all of these groups the change is a return to levels similar to 2019-20. The only change seen since 2019-20 is a decrease in violent victimisation for those living in the 15% most deprived areas of Scotland.
Over the longer term, between 2008-09 and 2023-24, many population groups saw a reduction in the proportion of adults experiencing violent crime, whereas others saw no change. No group saw an increase. Decreases were seen for: males, those aged between 25 and 44, people living in the 15% most deprived areas, as well as the rest of Scotland, people living in urban areas, and people who are not disabled. No change was seen for: women, all other age groups apart from those aged 25 to 44, people living in rural areas, and disabled people.
When considering findings by sex, it is important to note that victims of partner abuse may not report such experiences through the face-to-face element of the SCJS which produces the main survey prevalence rates. As such, questions on experiences of partner abuse (covering both physical and psychological abuses as well as sexual assault) are answered in a self-completion element of the survey.
The most recently published figures (combining 2018-19 and 2019-20) showed that in the 12 month period prior to interview, experiences of partner abuse were more common for females than males (3.7% and 2.6%, respectively). The next set of findings from the self-completion module will be published as part of the 2024-25 report (combining the 2023-24 and 2024-25 survey sweeps).
[16] Comparable data is only available for 2008-09 to 2023-24 therefore recorded crime figures used here do not use the latest year of data available (2024-25) as other measures using recorded crime data in this MF do.
[17] To compare estimates of crime from the SCJS and police recorded crime statistics in Scotland, a comparable subset of crime was created for crimes covered by both measures and recorded in a consistent manner. For police recorded violence, the comparable crimes include assault and robbery.
[18] Violent crime estimates are based on a relatively small number of respondents (126) who disclosed experiences of violent crimes in 2023-24. This means that the results are subject to a margin of error which can have an impact on how changes should be interpreted, especially in the short-term. Further information on the process for calculating estimates is contained within the SCJS Technical Report.
[19] For the definition of Non-sexual crimes of violence, please see the Glossary or User Guide to Recorded Crime: 2024-25.
[21] To note data reported here on age of accused is for crimes of Non-sexual violence cleared up by the police, whereas the data used for the indicator measure is for all crimes of Non-sexual violence recorded by the police.
[22] The age was other or unknown for 679 (2%) of distinct accused persons in 2024-25. ‘Other or unknown’ includes persons under the age of criminal responsibility in Scotland and accused persons with age undisclosed by Police Scotland.
[23] For the definition of Sexual crimes, please see the Glossary or User Guide to Recorded Crime: 2024-25.
[24] To note data reported here on age of accused is for Sexual crimes cleared up by the police, whereas the data used for the indicator measure is for all Sexual crimes recorded by the police.
[25] The age was other or unknown for 124 (3%) of distinct accused persons in 2024-25. ‘Other or unknown’ includes persons under the age of criminal responsibility in Scotland and accused persons with age undisclosed by Police Scotland.
Contact
Email: Justice_Analysts@gov.scot