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Impact of climate change on seabird species off the east coast of Scotland and potential implications for environmental assessments: study

This study investigated the potential impacts of climate change on seabird distribution, abundance and demography off the east coast of Scotland, and examined integration of these climate models into standard population forecast models used in assessments for offshore wind developments.


Appendix B: Bayesian results of modelling

Productivity

Table 18. Summary of best supported models ( JAGS) for the influence of climatic effects on breeding success of seabirds breeding on the east coast of the UK. Estimates, standard errors (SE) and limits of lower and upper 95% credible intervals (L95% and U95%) are shown, along with the proportion of the posterior density that is greater than, or less than, zero,(Proportion <0>), which is a measure of the strength of the effect. Note that the null model, including no climatic variables, was best supported in three species (Razorbill, European shag and Herring gull). Terms highlighted in bold indicate strong effects.
Species Estimates
Atlantic puffin Estimate SE L95% U95% Proportion <0>
NAO 0.0503 0.172 -0.290 0.378 0.624
AMO -0.735 0.994 -2.625 1.136 0.788
SST -0.621 0.181 -0.962 -0.264 1.00
SLM 0.886 0.587 -0.073 2.236 0.96
Black-legged kittiwake
NAO 0.155 0.336 -0.572 0.804 0.674
AMO -1.770 1.936 -5.488 2.156 0.824
SST 0.0086 0.231 -0.446 0.446 0.525
SLM -2.190 0.436 -3.041 -1.287 1.00
Temp -0.263 0.125 -0.515 -0.026 0.985
Rain 0.700 0.277 0.173 1.257 0.995
Common guillemot
NAO 0.258 0.364 -0.483 0.962 0.785
AMO 0.138 2.001 -3.990 3.982 0.526
SST -0.480 0.339 -1.130 0.227 0.918
SLM -0.699 0.503 -1.704 0.289 0.921
Temp -0.166 0.164 -0.473 0.157 0.845
Rain 0.472 0.259 -0.015 0.961 0.966
WS 0.090 0.065 -0.033 0.219 0.929
Great black-backed gull
NAO -0.083 0.263 -0.606 0.417 0.619
AMO -5.132 1.710 -8.503 -1.549 1.00
SST -0.190 0.249 -0.694 0.291 0.799
SLM -0.096 0.248 -0.594 0.374 0.646
Wind 0.127 0.066 0.000047 0.259 0.975
Northern gannet
NAO -0.019 0.019 -0.055 0.018 0.853
AMO 0.054 0.114 -0.171 0.285 0.696
SST 0.046 0.073 -0.109 0.186 0.746
SLM -0.632 0.327 -1.257 0.036 0.969

Population growth rates

Table 19. Summary of best supported models ( JAGS) for the influence of climatic effects on population trends of seabirds breeding on the east coast of the UK. Note that the null model, including no climatic variables, was best supported in three species (Atlantic puffin, Common guillemot and Razorbill). Estimates, standard errors (SE) and limits of lower and upper 95% credible intervals (L95% and U95%) are shown, along with the proportion of the posterior density that is greater than, or less than, zero,(Proportion <0>), which is a measure of the strength of the effect. Note that the null model, including no climatic variables, was best supported in three species (Razorbill, European shag and Herring gull).Terms highlighted in bold indicate strong effects.
Species Best Model Estimates
Black-legged kittiwake All year: NAO + SST + SLM** + WS** Estimate SE L95CI U95CI Proportion <0>
NAO -6.714 31.057 -71.094 64.243 0.605
AMO 13.245 31.216 -45.749 71.815 0.670
SST 18.927 16.755 -9.285 42.584 0.816
SLM -51.135 30.161 -121.95 1.839 0.966
WS 75.030 1.870 72.232 78.376 1.00
European shag All year: NAO + AMO + SST** + SLM**
NAO -4.605 20.955 -37.933 40.578 0.586
AMO -5.989 32.098 -70.451 49.957 0.488
SST 35.094 14.216 5.873 57.828 0.991
SLM 36.522 10.264 21.130 59.625 1.00
Great black-backed gull Breeding season: NAO + AMO + SST + SLM** + Temp** + Rain** + WS**
NAO 0.483 0.556 -0.535 1.595 0.805
AMO 2.636 3.483 -4.575 7.890 0.778
SST -0.150 0.895 -2.019 1.620 0.609
SLM -5.766 2.200 -9.896 -0.742 0.994
Temp -0.470 0.153 -0.693 -0.154 1.00
Rain 32.971 20.632 3.672 74.816 0.998
WS 2.177 0.280 1.665 2.627 1.00
Herring gull All year: NAO + AMO** + SST** + SLM** + WS**
NAO -31.512 23.669 -70.312 23.387 0.891
AMO -45.071 18.660 -90.516 -13.842 1.00
SST 78.735 1.982 74.728 82.538 1.00
SLM 27.233 12.840 4.922 44.524 0.998
WS 11.601 0.460 10.813 12.504 1.00
Northern gannet Non-breeding: NAO + AMO + SST** + SLM* + Temp** + Rain
NAO -7.323 29.837 -66.327 47.681 0.594
AMO 1.734 29.791 -53.953 65.698 0.518
SST -51.852 38.880 -115.396 0.704 0.971
SLM 44.437 25.370 -5.503 88.764 0.938
Temp 120.041 15.024 99.654 155.175 1.00
Rain -20.405 27.657 -75.478 31.934 0.773

Contact

Email: ScotMER@gov.scot

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