Publication - Research and analysis

Impact of climate change on seabird species off the east coast of Scotland and potential implications for environmental assessments: study

Published: 30 June 2022
Directorate: Marine Directorate
Part of: Energy, Environment and climate change, Marine and fisheries
ISBN: 9781804352182

This study investigated the potential impacts of climate change on seabird distribution, abundance and demography off the east coast of Scotland, and examined integration of these climate models into standard population forecast models used in assessments for offshore wind developments.

Marine publications

Supporting documents

Appendix A: Data used in modelling

Table 16. Selected breeding colonies on the East coast of Scotland to include in the demographic modelling with climate variables. Atlantic puffin ( ATPU), common guillemot ( COGU), European shag ( EUSH), northern gannet ( NOGU), razorbill ( RAZO), herring gull ( HEGU), great black-backed gull ( GBBG), black-legged kittiwake ( BLKI).
Species	Colony name (SMP Site or Mastersite name)	SMP Site or Mastersite?	Years of data available for analyses of:
Species	Colony name (SMP Site or Mastersite name)	SMP Site or Mastersite?	Abundance	Productivity	Survival
ATPU	Bass Rock	Site	3	0	0
ATPU	Coquet Island	Site	14	4	4
ATPU	Craigleith	Site	2	0	0
ATPU	Fair Isle	Site	1	32	0
ATPU	Farne Islands	Site	0	22	0
ATPU	Fidra	Site	9	0	0
ATPU	Inchcolm	Site	14	0	0
ATPU	Inchkeith	Site	16	0	0
ATPU	Inchmickery	Site	16	0	0
ATPU	Isle of May	Site	1	33	1
ATPU	St Abb's Head NNR	Site	27	0	0
ATPU	The Lamb	Site	7	0	0
BLKI	Auskerry	Site	12	0	0
BLKI	Bass Rock	Site	21	0	0
BLKI	Boulby Cliffs	Site	29	0	0
BLKI	Brei Wick to Virdick	Site	2	0	0
BLKI	Buchan Ness to Collieston	Site	0	23	0
BLKI	Burga Stacks to Caves	Site	4	0	0
BLKI	Calders Geo	Site	3	0	0
BLKI	Castle Headland	Site	18	0	0
BLKI	Clett Head	Site	3	3	0
BLKI	Compass Head	Site	6	8	1
BLKI	Coquet Island	Site	30	26	26
BLKI	Costa Head	Site	0	24	0
BLKI	Craigleith	Site	24	0	0
BLKI	Cross-voe-sand to Caves	Site	0	14	0
BLKI	Cullernose Point	Site	6	0	0
BLKI	Dunnet Head RSPB	Site	0	10	0
BLKI	Dunstanburgh Castle	Site	6	0	0
BLKI	East Caithness Cliffs SPA	Mastersite	0	9	0
BLKI	East Yell	Site	1	0	0
BLKI	Fair Isle	Site	5	33	1
BLKI	Farne Islands	Site	32	29	26
BLKI	Fidra	Site	31	0	0
BLKI	Firth of Forth SPA	Mastersite	21	30	17
BLKI	Fitful Head	Site	1	0	0
BLKI	Flamborough Head and Bempton Cliffs	Site	1	32	0
BLKI	Foula	Site	15	29	10
BLKI	Fowlsheugh RSPB	Site	1	31	0
BLKI	Grand Hotel	Site	14	0	0
BLKI	Harbourside Houses	Site	11	0	0
BLKI	Hartlepool Fish Quay 1	Site	9	0	0
BLKI	Hermaness	Site	1	29	1
BLKI	Hich Holm	Site	2	3	0
BLKI	Holm	Mastersite	0	30	0
BLKI	Hopeman Bay	Mastersite	29	3	1
BLKI	Horse Island; Colsay; Little and Ladies Holm to Fitful Head	Mastersite	4	0	0
BLKI	Huntress Row	Site	5	0	0
BLKI	Inchcolm	Site	28	0	0
BLKI	Inchkeith	Site	33	0	0
BLKI	Isle of May	Site	33	33	30
BLKI	Kettlaness	Site	3	10	0
BLKI	Lowestoft	Site	28	32	24
BLKI	Marsden Cliffs	Site	20	2	2
BLKI	Marwick Head SPA	Mastersite	1	32	0
BLKI	Maywick to Scalloway	Mastersite	4	0	0
BLKI	Mousa RSPB	Site	7	0	0
BLKI	Muckle Flugga	Site	1	0	0
BLKI	Mull Head - cliff-nesters	Site	2	25	1
BLKI	Nelson Pub and Foreshore	Site	9	0	0
BLKI	Ness of Ireland	Site	2	0	0
BLKI	No Ness to Levenwick and Boddam to Virkie	Mastersite	11	23	5
BLKI	North Caithness Cliffs SPA	Mastersite	0	9	0
BLKI	North Sutor to Shandwick	Mastersite	23	29	20
BLKI	Noss SPA	Mastersite	3	32	1
BLKI	Old Britannia Inn/Eastborough	Site	10	0	0
BLKI	Outer Brough	Site	4	0	0
BLKI	Outer Thames Estuary SPA	Mastersite	13	0	0
BLKI	Papa Westray (North Hill and Holm) SPA	Mastersite	8	26	2
BLKI	Portknockie	Site	27	0	0
BLKI	Reawick	Mastersite	6	0	0
BLKI	River Tyne to Seaton Sluice	Mastersite	11	27	8
BLKI	Row Head	Site	1	28	1
BLKI	Royal Hotel	Site	5	0	0
BLKI	Saltburn Cliffs (Huntcliff)	Site	28	23	18
BLKI	Sands of Forvie	Site	29	20	14
BLKI	Sandside	Site	5	0	0
BLKI	Saxavord	Site	1	0	0
BLKI	Scarvister to Culswick	Mastersite	0	17	0
BLKI	SE Yell (inc. Burravoe)	Site	3	12	0
BLKI	Sea Cadets	Site	10	0	0
BLKI	Siggar Ness	Site	1	0	0
BLKI	Skeld; Westerwick and Culswick	Site	3	0	0
BLKI	Spa Bridge	Site	7	0	0
BLKI	St Abb's Head NNR	Site	33	32	30
BLKI	St. Ninian's Isle	Site	7	0	0
BLKI	Stenness	Site	1	0	0
BLKI	Sulman's	Site	2	0	0
BLKI	Sumburgh Head	Site	5	33	4
BLKI	Swallow Cove - Crawton	Site	1	0	0
BLKI	The Lamb	Site	29	0	0
BLKI	The Poil	Site	3	0	0
BLKI	Town Hall	Site	10	0	0
BLKI	Troswick Ness	Site	13	10	2
BLKI	Troup; Pennan and Lion's Heads	Site	0	9	0
BLKI	Vaila	Site	4	0	0
BLKI	West Burra	Site	4	0	0
BLKI	West Burra - Shetland	Mastersite	0	23	0
COGU	Bass Rock	Site	21	0	0
COGU	Craigleith	Site	26	0	0
COGU	Deerness	Mastersite	0	25	0
COGU	Fair Isle	Site	1	32	0
COGU	Farne Islands	Site	32	9	5
COGU	Fidra	Site	31	0	0
COGU	Flamborough Head and Bempton Cliffs	Site	0	18	0
COGU	Fowlsheugh RSPB	Site	22	0	0
COGU	Hermaness	Site	3	0	0
COGU	Inchcolm	Site	17	0	0
COGU	Inchkeith	Site	33	0	0
COGU	Isle of May	Site	33	33	28
COGU	Marwick Head SPA	Mastersite	0	30	0
COGU	North Sutor to Shandwick	Mastersite	0	17	0
COGU	Papa Westray (North Hill and Holm) SPA	Mastersite	2	27	1
COGU	Sands of Forvie	Site	21	0	0
COGU	St Abb's Head NNR	Site	27	4	2
COGU	Sumburgh Head	Site	12	30	6
COGU	The Lamb	Site	31	0	0
EUSH	Auskerry	Site	9	0	0
EUSH	Bass Rock	Site	26	0	0
EUSH	Carr Craig	Site	32	0	0
EUSH	Craigleith	Site	31	0	0
EUSH	Cumlewick Ness	Site	4	0	0
EUSH	Fair Isle	Site	0	33	0
EUSH	Farne Islands	Site	32	29	28
EUSH	Fidra	Site	33	2	2
EUSH	Foula	Site	0	19	0
EUSH	Haystack	Site	22	0	0
EUSH	Hermaness	Site	4	5	0
EUSH	Holm Of Papa Westray	Site	3	1	0
EUSH	Hopeman Bay	Mastersite	17	0	0
EUSH	Howick - Cullornose Point - Dunstanburgh Castle Point	Mastersite	6	0	0
EUSH	Inchcolm	Site	27	0	0
EUSH	Inchkeith	Site	33	0	0
EUSH	Inchmickery	Site	28	1	1
EUSH	Isle of May	Site	33	33	32
EUSH	Kettlaness	Site	3	2	0
EUSH	Mousa RSPB	Site	10	4	2
EUSH	Muckle Roe	Site	2	0	0
EUSH	Noness	Site	27	4	4
EUSH	North Hill RSPB; Papa Westray	Site	7	12	6
EUSH	North Sutor Of Cromarty/Castlecraig	Site	24	27	23
EUSH	Noss	Site	31	3	3
EUSH	Portknockie	Site	27	0	0
EUSH	Reawick	Mastersite	3	0	0
EUSH	Sands of Forvie	Site	19	0	0
EUSH	Sandwick to Virkie: Boddam to Virkie within SPA	Site	9	0	0
EUSH	SE Yell (inc. Burravoe)	Site	2	4	0
EUSH	Silwick - Westerwick	Site	2	0	0
EUSH	Skeld; Westerwick and Culswick	Site	3	0	0
EUSH	Skelda Ness-Burga Stacks (Sh.) (all inc. traces)	Site	1	0	0
EUSH	St Abb's Head NNR	Site	33	29	30
EUSH	Strathlene to Portknockie	Mastersite	11	0	0
EUSH	Sumburgh Head	Site	31	31	30
EUSH	The Lamb	Site	31	0	0
EUSH	Troswick Beach to Boddam	Site	10	0	0
EUSH	Troswick Ness	Site	10	5	2
EUSH	Vaila	Site	3	0	0
EUSH	West Of The Nev - Stead Of Culswick	Site	1	0	0
EUSH	Whaness	Site	0	10	0
GBBG	Auskerry	Site	10	0	0
GBBG	Bass Rock	Site	5	0	0
GBBG	Birsay Moors RSPB	Site	6	2	0
GBBG	Car Craig; Eyebroughy and Haystack	Mastersite	18	0	0
GBBG	Ceann Leathad nam Bo 1	Site	11	0	0
GBBG	Ceann Leathad nam Bo 2	Site	11	0	0
GBBG	Cleit Bheag	Site	9	0	0
GBBG	Craigleith	Site	31	0	0
GBBG	Fair Isle	Site	8	0	0
GBBG	Farne Islands	Site	22	0	0
GBBG	Fidra	Site	31	0	0
GBBG	Fowlsheugh RSPB	Site	4	0	0
GBBG	Halberry Head	Site	8	0	0
GBBG	Havergate Island	Site	8	5	1
GBBG	Helman Head	Site	9	0	0
GBBG	Hich Holm	Site	4	0	0
GBBG	Hobbister RSPB	Site	7	2	0
GBBG	Holburn Head 2	Site	11	0	0
GBBG	Holm Of Papa Westray	Site	3	2	0
GBBG	Inchcolm	Site	23	0	0
GBBG	Inchgarvie	Site	23	0	0
GBBG	Inchkeith	Site	22	0	0
GBBG	Inchmickery	Site	25	1	1
GBBG	Isle of May	Site	27	4	2
GBBG	Latheronwheel	Site	9	0	0
GBBG	Little Clett	Site	10	0	0
GBBG	Llama Farm	Site	11	0	0
GBBG	Loch of Strathbeg RSPB	Site	10	6	3
GBBG	Melvich 1	Site	7	0	0
GBBG	Mousa RSPB	Site	5	3	1
GBBG	Nigg Ferry	Site	5	0	0
GBBG	Nigg Oil Terminal	Site	17	15	11
GBBG	North Hill RSPB; Papa Westray	Site	21	14	11
GBBG	Noss SPA	Mastersite	32	17	17
GBBG	Occumster	Site	11	0	0
GBBG	Ord of Caithness 1	Site	9	0	0
GBBG	Ord of Caithness 2	Site	4	0	0
GBBG	Orford Ness 1	Site	8	0	0
GBBG	Poll Gallon	Site	9	0	0
GBBG	Sands of Forvie	Site	28	0	0
GBBG	Sarclet Head	Site	10	0	0
GBBG	St Johns Point	Site	9	0	0
GBBG	St. Ninian's Isle	Site	1	0	0
GBBG	Stack of Ulbster	Site	6	0	0
GBBG	The Brough	Site	11	0	0
GBBG	The Lamb	Site	23	0	0
GBBG	Whaness	Site	0	10	0
HEGU	Bass Rock	Site	5	0	0
HEGU	Birsay Moors RSPB	Site	4	0	0
HEGU	Blakeney Point	Site	24	5	1
HEGU	Boulby Cliffs	Site	29	0	0
HEGU	Car Craig; Eyebroughy and Haystack	Mastersite	26	0	0
HEGU	Coquet Island	Site	30	9	8
HEGU	Craigleith	Site	3	0	0
HEGU	Eyebroughy	Site	13	0	0
HEGU	Fair Isle	Site	6	0	0
HEGU	Farne Islands	Site	9	0	0
HEGU	Fidra	Site	18	0	0
HEGU	Flamborough Head and Bempton Cliffs	Site	0	10	0
HEGU	Fowlsheugh RSPB	Site	1	3	0
HEGU	Freiston Shore RSPB	Site	8	1	1
HEGU	Havergate Island	Site	19	5	5
HEGU	Hobbister RSPB	Site	8	1	0
HEGU	Holkham NNR	Site	9	2	1
HEGU	Hollesley Marsh	Site	2	1	0
HEGU	Holm Of Papa Westray	Site	2	3	0
HEGU	Hunstanton Town	Site	11	11	7
HEGU	Inchgarvie	Site	25	0	0
HEGU	Inchmickery	Site	22	1	1
HEGU	Isle of May	Site	22	19	17
HEGU	Long Craig	Site	17	0	0
HEGU	Longnewton Res.	Site	15	0	0
HEGU	Minsmere Scrape & Beach	Site	14	0	0
HEGU	Mousa RSPB	Site	5	1	0
HEGU	Nigg Ferry	Site	5	0	0
HEGU	Nigg Oil Terminal	Site	17	0	0
HEGU	North Hill RSPB; Papa Westray	Site	13	9	4
HEGU	Noss	Site	32	19	18
HEGU	Orford Ness 1	Site	19	0	0
HEGU	Outer Trial Bank	Site	19	0	0
HEGU	Saltburn Cliffs (Huntcliff)	Site	28	0	0
HEGU	Sands of Forvie	Site	22	0	0
HEGU	Scolt Head Island NNR	Site	9	4	2
HEGU	Snettisham RSPB	Site	9	1	0
HEGU	St Abb's Head NNR	Site	33	0	0
HEGU	St Cyrus NNR	Site	23	0	0
HEGU	St Fergus Gas Terminal	Site	6	0	0
HEGU	Stiffkey	Site	1	0	0
HEGU	The Lamb	Site	12	0	0
HEGU	Titchwell Marsh RSPB	Site	8	2	1
NOGA	Fair Isle	Site	31	32	26
NOGA	Flamborough Head and Bempton Cliffs	Site	13	21	8
NOGA	Foula	Site	4	0	0
NOGA	Hermaness; Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA	Mastersite	0	29	0
NOGA	Noss SPA	Mastersite	1	32	0
NOGA	Sule Skerry	Site	2	0	0
NOGA	Troup; Pennan and Lion's Heads SPA	Mastersite	13	21	7
NOGA	West Westray SPA	Mastersite	12	14	8
RAZO	Bass Rock	Site	18	0	0
RAZO	Boulby Cliffs	Site	18	0	0
RAZO	Craigleith	Site	25	0	0
RAZO	Fair Isle	Site	0	28	0
RAZO	Farne Islands	Site	21	19	13
RAZO	Fidra	Site	27	2	1
RAZO	Flamborough Head and Bempton Cliffs	Site	0	10	0
RAZO	Hermaness	Site	3	0	0
RAZO	Inchcolm	Site	21	0	0
RAZO	Inchkeith	Site	31	0	0
RAZO	Isle of May	Site	33	33	29
RAZO	Marsden Cliffs	Site	4	0	0
RAZO	North Sutor to Shandwick	Mastersite	0	21	0
RAZO	Papa Westray (North Hill and Holm) SPA	Mastersite	2	13	1
RAZO	Portknockie	Site	5	0	0
RAZO	Saltburn Cliffs (Huntcliff)	Site	6	0	0
RAZO	Sands of Forvie	Site	26	0	0
RAZO	St Abb's Head NNR	Site	19	3	1
RAZO	Sumburgh Head	Site	9	8	6
RAZO	The Lamb	Site	25	0	0

Table 17. Detailed summary of climate/weather variables used to correlate against seabird demographic parameters identified in Web of Science literature search ("seabirds and productivity and survival and breeding success and climate"). BLKW = black-legged kittiwake. IOM = Isle of May.
Demographic rate and Species	Metrics	Ref
Survival (fledglings, post-recruitment) BLKW (Alaska)	Winter PDO (Nov-Feb prior to BS, averaged monthly data) Winter ENSO 3.4 index values (Nov-Feb prior to BS, averaged monthly data) Mean monthly autumn (sept-oct), winter (nov-feb) and spring (mar-apr) wind magnitudes Mean monthly SST (nov-feb)	(McKnight et al. 2019)
Chick growth and survival BLKW (Norway)	Weather station data hourly for wind speed and temp, daily ppt: Effective temp (chill factor using eqn for temp and wind speed) Mean wind speed Wind direction (NE, S, NW) Prevailing wind direction in 5d periods (direction with >50% prevalence) Day with highest ppt in 5d periods	(Christensen-Dalsgaard et al. 2018)
Adult survival (in relation to migration) Eiders (Canada, Svalbard, Norway)	Winter NAO (from monthly values, Dec-Mar) Time lags of 1, 2, 3 years	(Guery et al. 2017)
Survival and breeding success European storm petrel (Spain)	Mean monthly NAO for winter (Dec-Mar) Mean monthly NAO for spring (apr-Jun)	(Zuberogoitia et al. 2016)
Breeding: hatching date, egg size, hatching success, fledging success Lesser noddies (Seychelles)	Chlorophyll (weekly averaged then found 'peak productivity' over Apr-Jun and Jun-Aug) SST (weekly averaged over Apr-Jun and Jun-Aug) Wind speed (weekly averaged over Apr-Jun and Jun-Aug; and 'extreme wind' either very low or very high)	(Monticelli et al. 2014)
Breeding success (hatching success, chick growth, chick survival) Wilson's storm petrel (Antarctic)	All at nest sites: Air temperature Wind speed Wind direction Precipitation Snow cover	(Michielsen et al. 2019)
Adult survival, breeding success (Cory's shearwater, Mediterranean)	SOI (annual mean – Jan-Dec) NAO (annual winter NAO – Dec-Mar, 1 yr lag) Number of hurricanes during study period	(Genovart et al. 2013)
Breeding success, chick diets, timing of breeding Rhinoceros auklet, Japanese cormorant, black-tailed gulls (Japan)	Average monthly air temp (Feb-Jul) Monthly rainfall Total snowfall in March Mean monthly SST Current Chlorophyll in spring (mar-may) PDO (Pacific Decadal Observation) NPI (North Pacific Index) AO (Arctic Oscillation)	(Watanuki and Ito 2012)
Adult survival, breeding success, chick diet, chick mass Thick-billed murres (Canada)	NAO annual and winter (Dec-Mar) AO monthly mean – non-breeding (sep-apr) Lag effects of up to 3 years for above Monthly mean SST (jan-Mar & apr) Mean min temp (monthly) – winter (jan-mar) Mean monthly ppt - winter (jan-mar) Wind speeds (monthly means BS – May-aug)	(Smith and Gaston 2012)
Adult survival Common eiders (Baltic)	NAO (annual index, with lags up to 4 years)	(Hario et al. 2009)
Breeding (first egg dates, clutch sizes, egg volume) Black-tailed gulls (Japan)	SST anomalies (difference to long-term mean, March, April)	(Tomita et al. 2009)
Timing of arrival to breeding grounds Little terns (Finland)	NAO (Apr-May, May, June) Air temperature (Spring, based on earliest sighting and earliest egg laying dates, split into 10, 20 or 30 day periods)	(Pakanen 2018)
Breeding success Northern fulmar (Orkney)	NAO (winter, current and lag 1 year)	(Lewis et al. 2009)
Breeding – chick diet Shags (IOM)	SST (mean of Feb + Mar) Wind speeds (mean daily wind speed) Precipitation (total daily rainfall)	(Howells et al. 2017)
Breeding (nest numbers, habitat use of nests, brood size, breeding density, fecundity – proportion of juveniles) Great cormorant (Iceland)	Subpolar gyre index SST AMO NAO Average monthly temp (jan-feb)	(Gardarsson and Jonsson 2019)
Juvenile survival Emperor penguins (Antarctica)	Southern Annular Mode (SOM, Jul-Dec) Sea ice concentration	(Abadi et al. 2017)
Foraging effort Shags (IOM)	Wind speed (mean daily wind speed, mean daily wind direction – E or W of N)	(Lewis et al. 2015)
Adult mortality (wreck event) Brünnich's guillemots (Newfoundland)	Sea ice (timing of blocking of coastal leads) Onshore winds (NE)	(Tranquilla et al. 2010)
Adult survival and productivity Whiskered auklets (Alaska)	Aleutian Low Pressure climate index (Dec-Mar) SST (Summer – Apr-Aug; Winter – Aug-Apr) PDO (Aug-Apr) North Pacific Index NPI (Aug-Apr)	(Jones et al. 2007)
Adult, 1^st year, 2^nd year survival Shags (IOM)	Daily weather from WS for February Mean daily minimum air temperature Total precipitation Summed onshore wind component (easterly component – mean daily wind speed(knots) x sin(mean daily wind direction; set to 0 if wind direction between 180-360 [westerly] – then summed over all days in February)	(Frederiksen et al. 2008)

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Appendix A: Data used in modelling

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