Socio-economic Baseline Review Methodology and Data Gap Analysis for Offshore Renewables in Scottish Waters

3. Preparation of Baseline Reviews

The collation of baseline information has been taken forward in a number of steps, described below. In particular, these reviews have collated and present information on the spatial distribution, intensity (level of activity) and economic value of these uses and other interests, together with information on levels of employment where available. The reviews have taken account of historical trends (last 10 years) and future trends (over 50 years), recognising the potential lifetime of offshore renewable energy assets. They have also sought to compile baseline information that might inform the assessment of the specific interactions identified in Appendix B.

3.1 Reviewing Information Sources

A number of previous studies have identified relevant sources of information on marine socio-economic activity, including:

• Charting Progress 2 ( UKMMAS, 2010);
• Scotland's Marine Atlas (Baxter et al, 2011);
• The Economic Assessment of Short Term Options for Offshore Wind energy in Scottish Territorial Waters ( ABPmer et al, 2011); and
• Development of a Socio-economic Methodology and Baseline for Pentland Firth and Orkney Waters Round 1 Wave and Tidal Developments ( ABPmer & RPA, 2012b).

Information sources accessed in these studies were used as a starting point for the baseline reviews, and were supplemented by additional sources of data identified through consultation with relevant stakeholders. Full lists of references used in the study are provided in the detailed reviews ( ABPmer & RPA, 2012a).

3.2 Identifying Regional Distribution of Activities

A spatial analysis was undertaken in a GIS system ( ESRI ArcGIS 10) to identify relevant marine uses and other activities and interests occurring within each offshore renewable energy region. The presence or absence of each use, activity or interest was recorded in a simple matrix and used to focus the regional baseline reviews the resulting matrix is shown in Table 1 and forms the basis for the regional distribution of activities within the SORERs as described in the baseline report ( ABPmer & RPA, 2012a).

3.3 Consultation with Steering Group and Wider Stakeholders

The initial outputs from the scoping exercise were circulated to Steering Group members and wider stakeholders for review and comment and to identify any additional data sources for the baseline reviews. The comments received were used to inform the final scope of the baseline reviews.

A list of wider stakeholder organisations contacted is provided in Appendix C. A copy of the initial contact letter to stakeholders is provided in Appendix D.

3.4 Baseline Reporting

The baseline report R.1905 - ABPmer & RPA, 2012a) has been divided into two distinct parts; a national overview which considers each marine use and interest, and a series of six regional overview which describes the regional activity, economic value and employment, and future trends for each relevant marine use and interest. The structure as set out in Sections 2.3.1 and 2.3.2 was followed for all sectors where possible to provide the information in a uniform manner. The methods by which the data has been collated for each section are given below.

3.4.1 National Overview

The national overview is divided into the following sections:

• Definition of sector/activity;
• Description of information sources; and
• National overview of current activity.

Definition of sector/activity

A definition of each sector is given to inform the reader of the content of each sector.

Description of information sources

Within this section a table of the sources of data and information is provided, which shows the scale of the coverage e.g. Scotland, UK and the date of the source. In addition a sub-section on data limitations has been presented to give an indication either of a data gap or that caution should be exercised when considering the findings of any sector.

National overview of current activity

This section was further sub-divided as follows:

• Location and intensity of activity - where a description of the current activity is provided based on the data sources identified in the section above, internet searches, published and grey literature, stakeholder engagement (see Appendix C) and from previous studies. The information presented has also taken account of the data requirements identified in Column 4 in Appendix B. National spatial overview maps are provided together with graphical output as applicable;
• Economic value and employment - provides commentary on the national economic value of the sector and employment figures. Sources of information included those stated above. However where figures on employment were not readily available directly from the sector sources, the Office of National Statistics ( ONS) were used. The Standard Industrial Classification ( SIC) codes were matched as closely as possible to the sector, with comment being made whether this was an over or under estimation of employment within the sector;
• Historic trends - a description of how the sector has changed over the past decade; and
• Future trends - these considered the future trend of each activity for up to 50 years, splitting this between the next 10-20 years (more certain) and the following 30 years (less certain) where information was available.

3.4.2 Regional Overview

To scope the baseline review requirements for each offshore energy region, a spatial analysis was undertaken using ESRI ArcGIS v10 to identify the distribution of marine uses (activity) and other interests within each region, by sieve mapping. For each region the activity was considered as to whether it occurred on land i.e. terrestrial, within the coastal area (0-12nm) and offshore in the 12-200nm zone. The information on each activity has been assessed as being present i.e. the activity occurs within the region, as being absent or as intrinsically linked as in the case of some activities in the terrestrial area.

Originally the table only considered the activities as being in the coastal area or offshore, however during the Steering Group meeting the scope of the table and thus the areas of search for baseline material were extended to cover the land immediately adjacent to the water. As can be seen in Table 1, this addition mainly concerned the social and community, tourism, ports and harbours and to a lesser extent, the water sports activities.

Regional activity

For each SORER the activities that occur have been described based on the same principle as given above, and was again supported with regional spatial maps and graphs.

Regional economic value and employment

The economic value and employment are described or, where no regional information exists, this is stated. Where employment data was not available from the sector sources the ONS data has been used in an attempt to provide some quantification. Employment data was downloaded from the ONS website using Scottish intermediate zones to determine the areas. The shape file of intermediate zones provided by ONS was overlaid onto the SORER using GIS. Where intermediate zones fell wholly within an SORER they were included in that respective SORER. Where intermediate zones fell on the border between two SORERs, intermediate zones were assigned to the SORER in which the majority of its coastline lay. Where intermediate zones were located inland they were assigned to the SORER in which the majority of its area lay. As in the national overview the same SIC codes were used for the regional descriptions. In some cases the SIC codes were either sufficiently unrelated to the sector being considered or included such low numbers of employees that the records were discounted as not reliable for the baseline study. This was recorded within each sector as appropriate.

Employment figures for the military sections have been compiled from the MOD Quarterly Manning Report which provides the number of MOD personnel (military and civilian) employed in each of the Scottish Local Authority ( LA) areas. However these areas do not directly align with the SORER boundaries and therefore the LAs may occur within more than one SORER. Where this is the case, the SORER containing the largest proportion of the LA (visually assessed) is listed first in the employment table, the subsequent SORERs listed contain decreasing proportions of the LA. The values therefore can only be taken as indicative.

Table 1. Presence of activity by region based on sieve mapping

Sector/Interest	Scottish Offshore Energy Region
	South-West			West			North-West			North			North-East			East
	T	C	O	T	C	O	T	C	O	T	C	O	T	C	O	T	C	O
Aquaculture	x	√	x	x	√	x	x	√	x	x	√	x	x	√	x	x	x	x
Aviation	x	x	x	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√
Carbon Capture and Storage	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	√	x	x	√	x	x	x
Coast Protection and Flood Defence	x	x	x	x	√	x	x	√	x	x	x	x	x	√	x	x	√	x
Commercial Fisheries	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√
Energy Generation	x	√	x	x	√	x	x	√	x	x	√	x	x	√	x	x	√	x
Military Interests	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√
Oil and Gas	x	√	x	x	x	x	x	x	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	x	√
Ports and Harbours	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x
Power Interconnectors	x	√	x	x	√	x	x	√	x	x	√	x	x	√	x	x	√	x
Recreational Boating	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√
Shipping	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√
Social and Community	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x
Telecom Cables	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	x	√	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	x	√
Tourism	√	√	√	√	√	√	√	√	√	√	√	√	√	√	√	√	√	√
Waste Disposal	x	√	√	x	√	√	x	√	x	x	√	x	x	√	x	x	√	x
Water Sports	*	√	x	*	√	x	*	√	x	*	√	x	*	√	x	*	√	x

Key:

T Terrestrial,
C Coastal i.e. 0-12nm;
O Offshore i.e. 12-200nm;
√ Present,
X Absent,
* Intrinsically linked.

The economic value and employment figures for the Oil and Gas industry have been taken from the Oil and Gas UK's economic report for 2011 (Oil and Gas, 2011), which are based on parliamentary constituencies and may in some cases (North East and East region) include a degree of overlap.

Future trends

In some cases future trends are available and these have been discussed, however for many sectors no breakdown from the national overview could be found and where this occurred the reader was referred back to the national information.